Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1136 am EDT sun Aug 28 2016
high pressure along the New England coast today gradually works
offshore, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The
front will work slowly across the area on Monday. High pressure
follows for Tuesday. Another cold front moves through late
Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end of
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a high amplitude ridge across the East Coast, centered over the
mid Atlantic states, will gradually flatten as a shortwave trough
tracks across the upper Great Lakes. The latter of which will send
a cold front toward the area. Before then though, another dry,
warm day across the region. It will be a bit cooler than Saturday
due to a subsidence inversion producing a shallower mixed layer,
but still several degrees above normal. Highs will generally range
from the lower 80s along the coast, to the upper 80s north and
west of NYC.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development today via
2-ft/10-second southeast swells, minimal southeast-S wind waves. There is a low
potential for the risk to become high late this afternoon if 2 ft
15+ second southeast swells begin to work into the water from distant
Hurricane Gaston. Buoy 44017 S of Montauk is beginning to pick up
on these swells, but they are still lower energy than the
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
upper ridge over the mid Atlantic region continues to get
suppressed south as shortwave tracks across eastern Canada, just
north of the Great Lakes. Associated cold front approaches the
lower Hudson Valley by daybreak Monday, then slowly drops southeast
across the area. The front is likely to clear the area by early
evening. Marginal instability and weak shear along and ahead of
the Front Point to isolated coverage of any showers or thunderstorms
Highs Monday will be a bit warmer due to steeper lapse rates and
warm advection ahead of the front. Many locations will top out in
the upper 80s with areas in and around NYC getting into the lower
High pressure builds in from the northwest Monday night and settles
across the area Tuesday with temperatures close to seasonable
levels. It will be somewhat humid with dew points in the lower
60s, but not oppressively so. Winds become onshore by afternoon as
the high moves offshore.
There is the potential for a high risk for rip current development
Monday as long period southeast swells from distant tropical cyclone
Gaston build to 3 to 4 ft. If this occurs, breaking surf in the 3
to 5 ft range could be expected as well. These conditions will
likely continue into Tuesday.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
a cold front approaches on Wednesday and passes during the late
day/nighttime period. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast during the period with the best overall
chance appearing to be during Wednesday night. There is a chance
that the cold front is still close enough, coupled with synoptic
lift from a jet streak aloft, for a chance of morning showers on
Thursday. For now, will go with slight chc pops east of the city
Thursday morning. Drying conditions otherwise through Saturday as
high pressure builds in behind the front. High temperatures
Thursday through Saturday will be fairly close to normal, and
dewpoints all 3 days will allow for relatively comfortable
The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development
could continue mid to late week if southeast swells from Gaston continue
to affect the waters.
Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR with high pressure in control through tonight.
Light winds become southeast through early afternoon. Afternoon S/se sea
breeze enhancement to 10 to 15 kt expected...strongest at the
Winds diminish and veer to the SW tonight.
Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday...
Monday...mainly VFR. An isolated afternoon shower or tstm
Wednesday-Wednesday night...mainly VFR. A few showers or
Thursday...VFR. An isolated morning shower or tstm possible.
ocean seas will continue to slowly build in response to long
period swells generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. Hazardous
swells of 5 feet or more could arrive as early as Monday night,
and potentially linger through the rest of the forecast period.
Otherwise, winds should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, although they
will increase on Wed ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
no significant widespread precipitation is expected.