Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
1232 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016

Synopsis...
high pressure pushes off the northeast coast into Wednesday. A
cold front approaches late in the day Wednesday and moves through
Thursday. High pressure builds in through Saturday and moves off
the northeast coast Sunday through the beginning of next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

Zonal flow aloft. Therefore, dry conditions will persist with
just some high cloudiness and fair weather cumulus through the
afternoon.

Thicknesses will be lower compared to yesterday, so temperatures
will not be nearly as warm as they have been, 5-10 degrees cooler
in most spots. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s for a
majority of the region. Some upper 70s are likely across the Twin
Forks of Long Island and southeastern Connecticut due to
seabreezes.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
surface high pressure continues to push farther east Tuesday night
while an area of low pressure moves toward New England from south
central Canada. Its associated cold front will approach the area
late in the day Wednesday, with just a slight chance for some
showers and thunderstorms for mainly New York City and points north
and west.

High clouds will lower and thicken somewhat Tuesday night out ahead
of the approaching cold front. This will mean lows a few degrees
warmer than Monday night.

A southeast to south flow develops late in the day Tuesday and
Tuesday night, with winds veering to the southwest by late Tuesday
night. This will reintroduce a more humid and warmer air mass. Dew
points will rise into the upper 60s along the coast Tuesday night,
while Wednesday high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
on Tuesday, in the middle to upper 80s.

A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday, and possibly
longer, at the ocean beaches via 3-4 ft very long period southeast swell
(13 seconds) generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. See the
National Hurricane Center for forecasts of Gaston.

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
a shortwave moving through central Canada and into the Great Lakes
will carve out a deepening trough for Wednesday night into Thursday.
The trough will then move to the northeast and weaken as a strong
ridge builds from the central United States. The mid and low level
flow will be weak and an associated cold front will be slow to move
through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. Will carry
chance probabilities for showers with the frontal passage. Cape and
instability are marginal Wednesday night and decrease Thursday. Will
mention isolated thunder Wednesday night and showers Thursday.

A cool and dry Canadian high builds into the area behind the front
and moves off the northeast coast Sunday and remains into the
beginning of next week. The airmass modifies into the weekend and a
return flow develops Sunday into Monday with temperatures and dew
points increasing.

A high risk for strong rip currents likely continues into Friday due
to persistent southeast swells from Gaston. See the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts of Gaston.

&&

Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
high pressure will remain over the area today.

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period.

Sea breeze flow will continue to develop this afternoon.

Winds tonight diminish and become light and variable at most
terminals. Afternoon seabreezes are expected once again on
Wednesday.

There is a chance of low stratus or fog tonight. At this time, confidence
is low, and will leave out of the taf for now.

New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.

Klga taf comments: sea breeze still expected between 18-20z,
although confidence in timing is low.

Kewr taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kteb taf comments: sea breeze may develop before 18z.

Khpn taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.

Kisp taf comments: no unscheduled amendments are expected.

Outlook for 12z Wednesday through Saturday...
Wednesday...VFR. Low chance of sub-VFR stratus or fog early
Wednesday morning.
Wednesday night-Thursday morning...showers/tstms possible with
MVFR conditions.
Thursday afternoon-Saturday...VFR.

&&

Marine...
made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect east
of Fire Island Inlet into this evening. Thereafter, seas will
diminish to around 4 ft. Elsewhere, seas should remain around 4 ft
through Wednesday, though seas could touch 5 ft sporadically at
times even in the central and eastern zones. Winds should remain
below 25 kt through Wednesday.

A cold front crosses the waters during Thursday. Thereafter high
pressure builds into the waters. Wednesday night into Saturday winds
and seas are expected to remain below small craft level. Southeast
swells continue into Friday from Gaston. With another system
possibly moving through the Atlantic and a persistent northeast
flow, small craft seas will become likely Saturday night and
remain into Monday.

&&

Hydrology...
no significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate
to severe drought conditions continue. Around a quarter of an
inch of rainfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry
weather expected Thursday night into the beginning of next week.

Moderate to severe drought conditions continue. The next local
drought statement updated is scheduled for September 1st.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for nyz075-
080-081-178-179.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
evening for anz350.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 PM EDT this
afternoon for anz353.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jp/met
near term...Feb/maloit/jp/met
short term...jp
long term...met
aviation...BC/jmc
marine...Feb/maloit/jp/met
hydrology...jp/met

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations