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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
338 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

a cold front moves across the region tonight. Deepening low
pressure will track across New England into Quebec this weekend
bringing windy conditions to the tri-state. Another cold front
will move southeast across the area early Monday followed by
Canadian high pressure through Wednesday. Low pressure will move
slowly east toward the area Thursday through Friday.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
a warm front remains north of the region tonight. Meanwhile, a cold
front approaches and moves across the area tonight. Rain showers
that are currently falling across the eastern two thirds of the
forecast area will shift eastward. Another area of showers, will
move in from the west and work across the region through the
overnight hours.

Overnight lows tonight fall into the 50s.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
it will feel fall like with winds, cool temperatures, clouds and
light showers Saturday and Saturday night. Cold air advection keeps
temperatures steady or slightly fall through the day.

Showers will taper off in intensity though the day, becoming
scattered and light...mainly in the morning. Thinking that skies
will remain mostly cloudy through the day as the upper level low
moves over the region.

The main forecast impact will be the wind which will gust to 40 mph
in the afternoon and early evening. This is just below Wind Advisory
criteria. A few locations may even see sustained winds or gusts meet
advisory criteria. However, with low confidence will hold off on any

Any left over showers tapper off from south to north Saturday night
as moisture and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west
winds up to 35 mph will continue Saturday night as the low slowly
lifts to the north.

Temperatures on Saturday only reach the 50s, with Saturday night
lows falling into the upper 30s and 40s.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
mean positions of upper level trough will remain across the
northeast with a high amplitude ridge across the central U.S.

This will lead to temperatures averaging below normal through the

Sunday...strong west-northwest winds will persist at 20-30 mph with gusts
near 40 mph as day time highs approach 60 degrees.

Sunday chance of showers as a digging upper level short
wave re-inforces the cool air in place.

Monday through Wed will be quite cool as a building Canadian high
pressure system moves east across New England, bringing overnight
low temps into the 30s across most of the local area, even across
parts of NYC on Tuesday night. Grab those jackets.

Thu-Fri will bring our next chance of rain as low lvl warm air
advection increases between the departing Canadian high and a low
approaching across the Great Lakes.


Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/...
a cold front will approach from the west as a wave of low pressure
approaches from the south tonight. The cold front crosses the NYC
terminals after 06z.

S-southeast winds become light and variable this evening and the first part
of tonight.

Re-development of IFR conditions likely for coastal terminals
with low potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection fog/stratus
off the ocean later this evening. Overnight conditions likely
deterioration to widespread LIFR or lower conditions but mainly
before 08z. After 08z: improvement to MVFR conditions with northwest winds
g30-35kt developing in wake of cold frontal passage.

New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90

Kjfk taf comments: temporary MVFR/VFR possible before IFR and
possible LIFR re-develop.

Klga taf comments: temporary MVFR/VFR possible before IFR
and possible LIFR re-develop.

Kewr taf comments: temporary MVFR/VFR possible before IFR
and possible LIFR re-develop.

Kteb taf comments: temporary MVFR/VFR possible before IFR
and possible LIFR re-develop.

Khpn taf comments: ceiling amendments likely.

Kisp taf comments: ceiling amendments likely.

Outlook for 18z Saturday through Wednesday...
Saturday-Sunday...VFR. West-northwest-northwest winds g25-35kt likely.
Sunday night-Tuesday...VFR with northwest winds g20-25kt possible.
Isolated shower possible Sunday night into Mon morning.


a Small Craft Advisory for seas is in effect tonight for the ocean
waters as seas build to 5 to 6 ft.

The main marine event starts Saturday as winds increase to gale
force and continue through Saturday night as low pressure deepens
to our north.

Gales are forecast to continue through the day Sunday. Wind gusts
may briefly drop below 25 kt Sunday night before a cold front passes
early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25-30kt are likely Monday
through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to decrease on
Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area.


between 1 and 2 inches have fallen across NYC and the lower
Hudson Valley today. A few locations received locally higher
amounts. Some urban minor flooding was reported in these

Rain showers are expected continue tonight and Saturday. Totals
should average 1/2 to 1 inch, with locally higher amounts. While no
widespread flooding is anticipated, additional minor flooding may
occur where the heavier rain fell earlier today.

Sunday night...scattered showers with rainfall of less than one
tenth of an inch is forecast with the passage of a cold front.

Thursday through Friday...a widespread rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch
is possible with the approach of low pressure from the Great


Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Gale Warning from 6 am Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for anz330-
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am EDT
Saturday for anz350-353-355.


near term...British Columbia
short term...British Columbia
long term...gc

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