Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 162337
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
737 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017
a gusty northwest flow continues behind a cold front which has
moved well offshore. A broad area of high pressure is building
in from the west and will remain in control through next
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
made adjustments to temperatures, dew points, and winds to
reflect latest obs and trends.
Clouds continue moving eastward and will clear the area tonight.
Winds will slowly diminish into the overnight, therefore the
frost advisory will remain in effect for early Tuesday morning.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
gusts will return for a few hours in the late morning and early
afternoon. As ridging builds in from the south, winds will
subside for the remainder of Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures
likely only topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s once
Dry and seasonably cool for Tuesday night with the chance of
some patchy frost across far interior zones once again.
Confidence is marginal, so later shifts will have to evaluate
whether a frost advisory will be needed for late Tuesday night.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of
the period. Initially, a short wave trough over central Canada
and the northern plains translates east during the mid week
period, riding over top a broad, Flat Ridge over the southern
half of the country. This feature sends a dry cold frontal
passage through the region Thursday night. Thereafter, the upper
air pattern becomes amplified with a trough moving into the
western U.S., With heights building across the east. While
amplified, the flow is still fairly progressive with the trough
approaching the east early next week. The associated cold front
approaches Monday into next Tuesday.
Throughout the period, expect abundant sunshine and above
normal temperatures. Daytime highs will be around 70, with lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure builds to the west tonight, then drifts south
into the mid Atlantic states during Tuesday.
A northwest to north flow continues tonight around 10 kt early this
evening then diminishing to under 10 kt. Winds back to west then SW
New York Metro enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.Weather.Gov/zny/n90
Kjfk taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Klga taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kewr taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kteb taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Khpn taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kisp taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday...
the highest confidence in Small Craft Advisory wind gusts are for this evening
into the first part of the overnight as a secondary cold front
swings through. Therefore small craft advisories continue
overnight for the ocean waters, and then fall below Small Craft Advisory levels
early Tuesday morning for the near shore waters.
Winds and seas are expected to fall below Small Craft Advisory levels Tue morning
for the western ocean waters. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect due
to wind gusts for the eastern ocean waters, but only through
the late morning. Otherwise seas will remain below criteria for
Tue afternoon through the mid week under the control of high
High pressure prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub Small Craft Advisory
conditions. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Thursday into
Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a weak cold
front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt.
no hydrologic issues expected through next weekend.
CT...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Tuesday for ctz005>008.
New York...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Tuesday for nyz067>070.
New Jersey...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Tuesday for njz002.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Tuesday for anz330-335-338-
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Tuesday for anz350-353.