Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 161730 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
1130 am CST Tue Jan 16 2018
16/18z tafs. VFR conditions are expected. Northerly wind gusts on
the order of 15-25kt will decrease after 21z and winds will become
light and veer around to east and southeast overnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 902 am CST Tue Jan 16 2018/
minor adjustments to temperatures and winds will yield extending
the Wind Chill Advisory to a noon expiration. Even during the
afternoon, many wind chills will stay down in the single digits
Previous discussion... /issued 319 am CST Tue Jan 16 2018/
cold surface high pressure will settle over Oklahoma and North
Texas for the next day or so, before moving east. As the high
moves away, winds will turn around to the south, and begin to
increase again. They will probably do this a little before we get
the coldest air out of OK/TX, so another Wind Chill Advisory
appears likely for tomorrow (wednesday) morning, but we will wait
until the current advisory expires before issuing a new one.
The overall upper-air pattern begins a significant shift
tomorrow, and a steep warming trend begins after a chilly morning
on Wednesday. High temperatures will reach into the 60s and 70s
over most of Oklahoma and North Texas on Saturday, in advance of a
strong upper-level shortwave trough. At the same time, southerly
winds will become fairly strong, and moisture will make somewhat
of a return to at least the eastern parts of Oklahoma and Texas.
There will be a chance of rain this weekend, and even a slight
possibility of thunderstorms over the eastern third of Oklahoma
Another cold front will move through the Southern Plains Sunday,
bringing cooler weather. With southwest flow aloft, however, this
airmass will not be a direct shipment from the Arctic, so
temperatures won't be quite so cold early next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 20 5 34 21 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 25 5 36 20 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 28 8 36 19 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 23 5 41 22 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 17 3 33 20 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 24 8 32 19 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for okz004>032-034-035-