Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1225 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016
aviation discussion for the 06 UTC tafs is below.
overall, think VFR conditions will continue.
A front will drift slowly south into northern Oklahoma overnight
and bring isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Increasing moisture over southeastern Oklahoma will allow more
thunderstorms to develop there Monday. The stalled front across
northern or central Oklahoma Monday afternoon will likely be
associated with more thunderstorms later in the afternoon and
evening. Variable gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions or lower
are possible with any thunderstorm. Exact timing and storm
coverage remain uncertain.
Previous discussion... /issued 901 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016/
the heat advisory was allowed to drop at 8 PM this evening with no
current plans to extend into Monday right now.
A few storms developed in northern and southeast Oklahoma late
this afternoon/early evening. These storms, however, have
dissipated with the loss of heating. Additional showers and
storms are still possible across portions of the area
overnight/early Monday. The best opportunity will be with activity
that developed in the High Plains and panhandles moving east into
the area. Overall, going forecast looks good with no major changes
but did make some minor tweaks to grids to better show current
Previous discussion... /issued 711 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016/
/issued 149 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016/
a few mid level returns are still present on radar this afternoon
across portions of northwest OK, where a stationary boundary is
present. Could see some moist convection develop later this
evening across this region with the onset of low level jet and a mid to
upper trough axis moving through the plains. It appears the
boundary will become a little more focused by this time as well. A
few strong storms may try to nudge into northern OK with the main
threat being damaging winds.
Rain chances will continue to increase through tomorrow as mid
level perturbations rotate around the eastern periphery of the
ridge, and a mid to upper shortwave passes over southeast OK.
Temperatures will slowly begin to cool over the next several days
with our region becoming influenced by northerly flow as the ridge
continues to shift westward.
The highest rain chances will likely accompany numerous mid level
shortwave troughs moving within this flow by mid to late week.
There is now fairly decent agreement of one such wave moving into
OK Wed-Thu. The European model (ecmwf) and dgex are still suggesting a surface
boundary lingering over US Thu and Fri as well.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 74 91 74 93 / 30 30 10 10
Hobart OK 74 93 74 94 / 30 30 20 20
Wichita Falls Texas 75 95 75 95 / 30 20 10 10
gage OK 71 92 71 93 / 30 30 20 30
Ponca City OK 73 91 74 93 / 40 30 20 30
Durant OK 76 94 75 94 / 30 20 10 20