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fxus64 koun 231535 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1035 am CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

red flag warning was canceled for a few counties.

Temperatures, dew points, and cloud cover were updated through


the red flag warning was trimmed slightly with the removal of
Alfalfa, major, and Washita counties. These counties will likely
remain in only low to elevated fire weather conditions this

Latest guidance suggests the dry line may not mix as far east as
previously forecast. With the surface cyclone remaining across
eastern Colorado/western Kansas, the primary mechanism for dry
line propagation today will be through vertical mixing. The
greatest veering of 925 to 850 mb winds is forecast to be confined
to near the Oklahoma/Texas border along with the sharpest 925 mb
dew point gradient.

Most guidance also suggests abundant mid to high level clouds
today, which would reduce the potential skin temperatures of any
fuels. Temperatures were also lowered slightly to account for the
forecast cloud cover and reduced insolation.



Previous discussion... /issued 548 am CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/


VFR conditions are expected until 241200. Gusty south to
southwest winds will continue through the period with scattered to
broken mid and high clouds.

Previous discussion... /issued 338 am CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

the main weather impact today will be fire weather. Critical
conditions are expected in northwestern Oklahoma behind a dry
line. The big question is how far east the dry line will mix. The
red flag warning lines up mostly with the hrrr with the GFS
mixing the dry air slightly to the west of that. However, a strong
thermal ridge will form over the eastern Panhandle border area by
late afternoon, and the strong winds will be a near given. With
temperatures likely rising into the 90s behind the dryline over
northwestern Oklahoma, we have allowed the eastern edge of the
warning to creep into elevated areas. The day shift may need to
evaluate this based on the progress of the dry air mixing this
afternoon. Otherwise, a weak cold front passes on Saturday but
passes north again as a warm front Sunday with strong moisture
advection. At this time Oklahoma becomes subject to a week-long
southwesterly flow with several weak waves ejecting to the
northeast. Moisture will be greatest and capping less in areas
east of I-35, so that area will likely receive moderate rainfall
at various periods over the first part of next week. A front later
Tuesday and into Wednesday will again enhance rain/thunderstorms
chances Tuesday night or Wednesday as it passes south. The end of
next week appears dry with more normal temperatures.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 78 57 77 51 / 0 10 0 10
Hobart OK 82 54 79 53 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls Texas 85 60 82 59 / 0 0 0 10
gage OK 90 49 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 77 53 72 44 / 10 10 0 10
Durant OK 72 63 81 60 / 10 10 0 20


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for okz004-005-009-


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