Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
548 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017
Aviation...25/12z taf issuance...
VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. North winds
will continue to relax through the morning, with a gradual shift
to the south through midday. Mostly clear skies through the day,
with scattered midlevel ceilings developing through the later half
of the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 420 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
primary forecast focus is on precipitation chances early next week
and fire weather.
This morning... the surface ridge will continue to slowly build
southward across the plains as the open 500mb trough continues to
lift eastward across the mid-Mississippi Valley. In response, winds
have relaxed across northern Oklahoma, while breezy north winds will
persist, through sunrise, across southern Oklahoma into North Texas.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures, what a novel concept for
February, will occur across the region today. Sunny and brisk, with
highs in the mid to upper 40s, near 50 across the area.
Into Sunday, under zonal flow, the broad surface high will slide
rather quickly eastward by sunrise, with a return to southerly
flow ahead of a subtle 500mb short wave and increasing surface
trough off the western High Plains. In response, temperatures will
rebound on Sunday, and shower and isolated thunderstorm chances
will return and gradually increase from southeastern Oklahoma into
central Oklahoma and portions of western North Texas overnight
into Monday morning. The best chances for precipitation will
generally be across northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma.
With the track of the open short wave trough, the best moisture
return will be focused across the arklatex and southeastern
Oklahoma, concurrent with the best axis of isentropic ascent. By
the afternoon, rain chances will have shifted eastward.
Into Tuesday, a larger 500mb trough will be moving ashore out west,
with a developing surface low stretched from the Central Plains,
southwest across the panhandles. Mid/long-range guidance remains
in okay agreement with initial precipitation chances. General
consensus is for the forecast to remain dry through Tuesday
morning, with two regions of precipitation areas developing
overnight. The more pressing issue, at first, will be
temperatures and fire weather. Stout, warm, dry, southwesterly
downslope flow will Open A window of quick warming across western
North Texas into southwestern Oklahoma. Model blends have/will
struggle with resolving temperatures and dew points with this
scenario, specifically, the developing dry line. This warm, dry,
windy pattern will result in a narrow window in the late morning
and afternoon for elevated fire weather conditions across portions
of western Oklahoma into western North Texas. After which,
continual moisture advection into southeastern and south central
Oklahoma will result in shower and thunderstorm chances developing
in the late afternoon and overnight into Wednesday. Additionally,
as the cold front associated with the 500mb trough pushes in from
the north Wednesday morning, precipitation chances will result
along the Oklahoma/Kansas border, with colder temperatures and
profiles hinting at a light, low to no impact, rain/snow mix in
the early morning in northwestern Oklahoma.
Precipitation chances will end by Wednesday afternoon, with dry
conditions into the weekend. Temperatures will be relatively mild as
broad high pressure remains positioned over the region. A return to
southerly flow ahead of another surface trough into Saturday hints
at a warm up for next weekend, again.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 48 32 60 42 / 0 0 0 20
Hobart OK 46 33 61 39 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls Texas 50 34 67 46 / 0 0 0 20
gage OK 47 31 57 32 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 47 30 55 37 / 0 0 10 20
Durant OK 52 34 62 49 / 0 0 10 50