Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
924 PM CDT sun Aug 28 2016
models, radar trends, satellite trends, persistence, and the
overall meteorological situation all point to higher rain chances
remaining in northwest Oklahoma overnight. As with the past
several nights, overall coverage and intensity should continue to
diminish slowly through the night.
The forecast has been updated several times this evening to
account for details of the rain pattern and its effects on
temperatures, etc. At this point, it appears to be in good shape,
but later updates may be needed if conditions change significantlyfaster
or slower than expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 622 PM CDT sun Aug 28 2016/
the 00z aviation discussion follows....
much like yesterday, persistent rain showers/thunderstorms and rain continue across
northwest Oklahoma, affecting the taf sites of kgag and kwwr. This
convective activity is expected to continue off and on through the
period. Elsewhere, more isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be more diurnal in
nature, mostly dissipating by 02z, and reforming around 19z to 20z
tomorrow. Light southeast winds will gradually turn to east
overnight into tomorrow.
Previous discussion... /issued 235 PM CDT sun Aug 28 2016/
this afternoon is very similar to yesterday, although instability
is a bit lower, along with shower/storm coverage. Expect most of
this activity to again come to an end after sunset, but a repeat
of last night across the northwest appears possible within deeper
moisture fetch. A mesoscale convective vortex lifting NE out of Ama may also have an
impact on persistence through tonight.
At least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the forecast for most of the week with plenty of moisture in
place and the upper low to our west only slowly moving eastward.
The lowest chances will remain across the eastern zones as the mid
to upper ridge axis tries to nudge in. However, by Wed thru
Thursday the aforementioned low will elongate and slide east
southeastward along with a weak cold front. Cloud cover and rain
chances will increase with these features so expect very
reasonable temps for the 1st of September (around 3-5 degrees
By next weekend, the low level flow will quickly return from the
south as a long wave trough impacts the western Continental U.S. And the
center of the mid to upper ridge axis moves very near eastern/NE
OK. Temps will likely climb back to or above avg as a result, and
rain chances will decrease for most of the region. A mid level moisture
axis should, however, in place over the western zones so kept schc
pops across this area on the western fringe of the ridge within SW
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 70 90 70 90 / 10 40 30 40
Hobart OK 69 88 68 89 / 30 50 30 40
Wichita Falls Texas 70 92 70 91 / 10 30 20 30
gage OK 65 85 66 86 / 50 40 40 50
Ponca City OK 69 90 69 89 / 20 40 20 40
Durant OK 71 94 72 93 / 20 20 10 30