Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS66 KPDT 241803 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1000 AM PST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SHORT TERM...Morning Update...The latest system continues to move across the region into the Great Basin. The system's cold front and associated steady snow has exited most of the area, with precip now mainly showery in nature. Can expect varying coverages of showers through the rest of today with highest coverages over the Blue, Wallowa and Strawberry mountains. Will continue the current highlights, though snow accumulations will become increasingly spotty this afternoon. Snow levels have risen or will rise to between 1300 and 2000 feet today. Thus the lower elevations will see mainly rain showers this afternoon. Winds have been increasing behind the front and expect sustained winds between 15 and 30 mph today. Made adjustments to some of the shower coverages, a few high temps and winds for updates this morning. 90 .LONG TERM...Previous Discussion...Active weather pattern will continue next week as several more systems move across the Pacific northwest. Extended models have also come into better agreement for the later portion of the week as an upper low moves through. For Monday an upper level trough will be exiting the region with decreasing precipitation and clouds during the day. Another system will quickly follow on Tuesday with a northwest flow aloft. For Wednesday through Friday the region will be under the influence of a slow moving upper level low. Based on the number of systems moving across the forecast area expect precipitation every day. Freezing levels indicate the mountains will receive all snow with the mid and lower elevations having a mix of snow and rain. High temperatures will be mostly in the 30s and 40s. Lows in the 20s and 30s. Occasional breezy to windy conditions expected with south to southwest winds. && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...The upper level trough and cold front has swept across most of the forecast area. Cloud bases and the visibility have fluctuated significantly with the passage of the front. In addition, winds have increased and shifted directions. All of these changes have made for challenging TAFs. If landing or departing at our surrounding terminal airports, be prepared for wind shifts and increasing winds as well as the possibility of sudden flight rule changes over the next several hours. Aviation conditions have stabilized to VFR at KPSC and KYKM. Other TAF sites will return to VFR around 21Z-00Z. It will be breezy for most sites for the next 24 hours with winds shifting to the S-SW overnight. Wister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 41 31 44 27 / 60 20 50 40 ALW 42 33 47 29 / 70 20 70 50 PSC 46 34 50 30 / 20 10 30 20 YKM 45 29 47 25 / 20 10 40 30 HRI 46 34 48 30 / 30 10 40 30 ELN 40 27 42 23 / 40 20 50 30 RDM 36 24 42 19 / 80 20 80 80 LGD 33 25 37 20 / 90 30 90 70 GCD 34 22 39 20 / 90 40 80 80 DLS 45 34 46 27 / 60 20 90 60 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ049- 050-502-505-506-509-511. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ502. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for WAZ030- 520. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for WAZ030.