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fxus65 kpih 281955 
afdpih

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
155 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Short term...tonight through Sunday.

Low pressure system over western Colorado continues to pour snow
showers into eastern Idaho today. Many of these showers will
dissipate this evening as the low moves across the Continental
Divide and we lose the diurnal "heating" contribution. Saturday
actually looks mostly dry. Could see a popup shower across the
eastern Highlands, but for the most part looks dry and certainly
warmer with highs back in the 50s for the snake plain and Magic
Valley and mid to upper 40s for the high country. Another weak
system will approach the region on Sunday. This will produce another
chance for showers, but these showers will probably stay confined to
the high country. Sunday should be warmer as well with highs near 60
in the snake plain and Magic Valley and around 50 in the high
country.

Valle

Long term...Monday through Friday night. No significant changes
made in the long term. GFS/European model (ecmwf) drive a short wave out of British Columbia
through the area Monday night into Tuesday. Some moisture will
linger in the wake of that wave along our eastern borders through
Tuesday evening. Ridging will then become the dominant feature for
the rest of the week. The ridge axis will be overhead on Thursday
keeping dry weather in the forecast. Previous runs signaled a
possibility for showers as early as Thursday afternoon, but have
backed off to Friday. Still maintaining slight chances over the
central mountains Thursday afternoon while models adjust to timing
and intensity of the short wave coming late next week. Hinsberger

&&

Aviation...as of 1:30 PM MDT...radar this afternoon cont to show
light returns across the eastern County Warning Area. Model guidance shows general
agreement in slowly shifting this south, and diminishing it, through
this eve as low pres shifts southeast and high pres starts to build in.
Forecast confidence is moderate in this scenario. Have carried vcsh
in tafs for kpih/kida/kdij through 00z to 02z. In contrast to this
am when cigs/vsbys dropped into IFR, expecting VFR with slgt chance
of brief MVFR for the rest of the day for two reasons. One, activity
is light and should slowly diminish, and two, sfc temps have risen
into the mid 40s at kpih and kida, mid 30s at kdij. Best chance of
MVFR/borderline IFR at kdij if we can work a snow shower in. No T-
storms today. Winds will be a bit elevated through sunset, but will
not approach low level wind shear criteria. Expect improving conds overnight into
Sat W/ diminishing clouds, light winds, and good vsbys.

Note: data outage continues at the kdij wx station which limits our
sfc observational data in that area, thus we continue to carry amend
not schedule for that terminal. This is a non-National Weather Service station, and we have
no info on when the issue will be resolved. -Ksmith/hinsberger

&&

Hydrology...Flood Warning continues for the Portneuf at Pocatello
and will remain in effect for quite some time. The forecast is for
gradually decreasing flows but its hard to say when the river will
actually drop back below flood stage. Similar story along The Bear
river in Bear Lake County where a flood advisory continues along The
Bear river from Montpelier to the border.

Valle

&&

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