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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
209 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Short term...tonight through Saturday.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout southeast Idaho this
afternoon and expected to continue through this evening with the
brunt occurring in southeast corner. Upper ridge builds in
Thursday with precipitation again mainly expected in extreme
eastern Idaho mainly along Wyoming border. Dry trend with ridge
continues Thursday night through Friday. Another Pacific system
will spread showers back into central mountains and overspreading
all of eastern Idaho Friday night through Saturday. Expect varying
temperatures with near seasonal temperatures Thursday then warming
to well above normal readings Friday ahead of the system then
cooler again Saturday. Generally a typical active Spring pattern
in the short term.

Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday. Remnants of Saturday
storm gradually weaken Saturday night into Sunday as ridge
transitions across the state. Temps fall overnight Saturday night,
but lows near freezing should occur well after rain ends. Next
trough slides into region Sunday night into Monday, but some
differences already manifesting between GFS, GFS ensembles and
European model (ecmwf). European model (ecmwf) much faster with trough as it swings through the Great
Basin while GFS and ensemble means support slower system closing off
over CA/NV. Both solutions keep east Idaho quite unsettled through
Tuesday. By Wednesday, both models support a closed low either well
south or southeast of the region trending toward drier and cooler
conditions. Dmh


Aviation...showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through east
Idaho this afternoon, so far impacting areas east of I-15. Have seen
gusty winds associated with the showers but remaining well below
severe limits. Mainly VFR ceilings will continue except for MVFR
this evening associated with convection. Another round of showers
will move through this evening and overnight, impacting all
terminals except ksun. Ceilings associated with this batch of
precipitation may approach IFR conditions at times. Dmh


Hydrology...impacts resulting from Spring snowmelt runoff continue
across portions of east Idaho. Fortunately, conditions have improved
in Bingham and Oneida counties, so the advisories for those
locations were allowed to expire. Rising water tables and heavy
creek flows continue to cause flooding in other areas. The Portneuf
and bear rivers continue to run high. Portneuf remains under a Flood
Warning with latest forecasts still solidly pushing into moderate
flood category Saturday night and staying there into the beginning
of April. The Bear is currently in action stage and expected to
reach into minor flooding Thursday evening through Saturday. Have
touched on the remainder of the Snake River region with a river
statement highlighting rivers at bankfull action stages for the
foreseeable future. Will maintain areal Flood Watch at its current
areal extent. Dmh


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for idz017>019-022>025-031-

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