Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kpih 171857 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
1257 PM MDT sun Jun 17 2018

Short term...tonight through Wednesday afternoon. The storm system
over northern Nevada will move slowly over southeastern Idaho
through Tuesday morning. Areas around MacKay, Ashton have received
anywhere from .75 to nearly 2 inches of rain the past 48 hours. Some
streams and rivers are not very far below bankfull. The forecast
through Monday night and possibly into Tuesday morning calls for
another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain in portions of The Sawtooth
mountains and upper snake Highlands. A Flood Watch was issued.
Currently there is a dry slot that has moved into southeast Idaho
this afternoon and this may help support thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, some with hail and strong gusty winds, added
to the risk of heavy rain. The middle level winds begin this evening
from the south and shift southeasterly, wrapping around the low
pressure disturbance as it moves into the southwest corner of the
sate by Monday morning. With this changing wind pattern, the focus
of precipitation can shift to different facing slopes of the
terrain, giving many areas a shot at some rain, just not everybody
at the same time. Latest model runs favor some heavy rain developing
overnight around MacKay and Clayton area. A second area is favored
north of Idaho Falls around DuBois, small, Monida Pass. Both areas
are under the Flood Watch. Receiver station

Long term...Wednesday night through next Sunday. Unsettled weather
will continue through most of next weekend. Multiple lows will move
across eastern Idaho to keep showers and storms in the forecast. The
models have some real gaps in continuity and with each other now,
making it hard to trend the forecast one way or the other. The best
chances still likely remain in the central and eastern mountains. We
look to eventually starting drying out in about 7 days or so. Keyes


Aviation...periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist in the
next 24 hours. VFR weather will be the norm, but lowered
ceilings/visibility are possible with stronger storms producing
heavy rainfall. Hail is also possible with stronger storms. Keyes


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for idz018-019-032.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations