Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kpsr 222101
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona
201 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019
gusty winds will continue today across the lower Colorado River
valley and southeast California with lighter winds elsewhere. For
the rest of the week, high pressure centered to the west of the
region will keep dry conditions over the region while temperatures
slowly rise to just above normal readings by Friday.
living under the backside of a low pressure system that has
skirted off to our east means dry northwesterly flow aloft will
continue over the area resulting in not just clear skies but also
windy conditions, particularly along the Colorado River valley and
portions of southeast California. Folks can expect gusts up to 30
miles per hour and stronger to dominate the afternoon. Fortunately, those
exceptional winds should subside after sunset. As such, a Wind
Advisory for that area will remain in effect until this evening.
Otherwise, folks should expect generally cooler temperatures as a
colder northern airmass sinks in over the southwest. High temps
will fall a few degrees below seasonal normal values but the
morning low temperatures on Wednesday will likely be the lowest
folks have seen in the last several days.
Over the next few days, high pressure ridging will take form over
the area despite a few shortwaves circulating around the northern
periphery of the ridge. These waves will be dry and do little
other than to induce a tighter pressure gradient resulting in some
stronger afternoon breezes. Nevertheless, we shall enjoy a
warming trend warming into the low 70's by the end of this week
lasting through the weekend.
south-central Arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
In the wake of a passing disturbance, winds will favor the west/northwest
today, with speeds generally less than 15kt. A few gusts into the
teens will be possible during the afternoon, but not enough to
warrant mentioning gustiness in the tafs. By late evening, expect
winds generally out of the east/NE at the terminals. Winds will be
light overnight through tomorrow afternoon, remaining aob 5kt.
Skies will remain clear through the taf period.
Southeast California/southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh:
Strong gusty northerly flow will prevail through the afternoon
before subsiding later this evening. Kblh will experience the
strongest winds, with sustained winds reaching 25kt and gusts up
to 35kt. Reduced visibilities will be possible due to blowing
dust. Brief periods of visibilities below 2sm will be possible,
but confidence is too low to reflect in the taf. Low level wind shear may become
an issue for kblh this evening as surface winds decouple from
strong low level winds, but confidence is not high enough to
include in the taf at this time. Winds this afternoon at kipl will
generally remain around 15-20kt, with gusts reaching up to 25kt.
Winds at kipl will transition to a westerly component tonight,
becoming lighter overnight into tomorrow. Clear skies will prevail
through the next 24 hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.
Thursday through monday:
dry conditions under high pressure aloft will dominate through the
period. Near normal temperatures on Thursday will rise through the
end of the week reaching above normal by Friday. Humidity readings
will remain fairly stable dipping down to between 15 to 25 percent
each day. Winds will generally be light through the weekend,
favoring the north over the deserts west of Phoenix at speeds up to
15 mph. Stronger north winds are possible Monday especially over far
southeast California and along the lower Colorado River valley.
Spotter information statement...
spotters should follow Standard reporting procedures.
Arizona...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for azz530.
California...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for caz560-564-568-