Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kpub 111135 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
435 am MST sun Dec 11 2016

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 433 am MST sun Dec 11 2016

Currently...radar shows a northeast to southwest band of heavier
snow moving towards lake and Chaffee counties. This heavier band
could already be affecting lake and Chaffee counties. Further east,
westerly downslope winds are resulting in seasonally mild nighttime
temperatures, especially over and near the eastern mountains and
near the New Mexico border. A cold front is moving southward, and
has reached the Arkansas River from La Junta eastward as well as
portions of El Paso County.

Today and tonight...expect the band of heavier snow to move through
lake and Chaffee by late morning. Will let the warnings and
advisory continue through 18z as this band will produce another
round of heavier snowfall with snowfall rates up to an inch an hour.
After the band passes, drier air aloft moves into the region which
will end the heavier snowfall over the mountains. With northwest
flow aloft, anticipate some light snow lingering over the higher
peaks through the afternoon and into the evening. Will still be
breezy to windy in lake and Chaffee counties with the jet stream
over the area.

Will let the High Wind Warning expire for the Sangre de Cristos as
there have not been many reports and winds aloft are gradually
decreasing. Still expect some gusts to over 60 mph over and near
the higher peaks, but these are below warning criteria for the

On the plains and eastern mountains, complicated weather pattern for
this morning. A weak cold front will move southward and the cold
front will briefly back into the i25 corridor during the morning
hours. By the afternoon, the cold air will recede eastward, with
the colder remaining over the eastern plains, mainly along and north
of the Arkansas River. Air aloft will remain mild, so locations west
of the front will be above average temperatures with some gusty west
winds possibly, especially close to the eastern mountains. Locations
in the cooler air will experience near normal temperatures. Tonight,
gusty winds could continue over and near the eastern mountains, with
mild overnight temperatures, but not as warm as this morning.

San Luis valley will be dry for this period.


Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 433 am MST sun Dec 11 2016

Moderate westerly flow aloft will be found over the area on Mon
and Mon night, with windy conditions expected over the mtns. There
will be the possibility of some light snow over the Continental dvd,
especially the central Colorado mtns. Temps on Mon will be above average
with mostly 50s for highs acrs the southeast plains, and upper 30s
to lower 40s in the high valleys.

On Tue an upper level disturbance is expected to move into the area
along with an increase in mstr ovr western Colorado. By late afternoon it
looks like there wl be a good chance for snow acrs the Continental
dvd which will continue Tue night. The rest of south east and south
central Colorado is expected to remain dry Tue and Tue night. Temps on
Tue should be a little cooler and closer to average.

Cooler air then backs into the southeast plains Tue night along with
the potential for some areas of low clouds. Low level easterly
upslope flow will be found acrs the sern plains Wed and high temps
are expected to range from about the upper 20s and lower 30s nr the
Kansas border to the lower or mid 40s nr the eastern slopes of the
eastern mtns. On the other hand, the upper Arkansas River valley
and the San Luis valley should see highs that are in the 40s which
is above average. Snow is expected to continue along the
Continental dvd on Wed, especially over the central Colorado mtns.

Wed night snow is expected to continue ovr the central mtns and
could also move into the Pikes Peak and Teller County. By Thu
afternoon only some light showers may still be found over portions
of the Continental dvd, with dry weather elsewhere. Temps on Thu
should be a little warmer acrs the sern plains than on Wed, and will
be similar to Wed in the high valleys.

A new weather system moves into the Great Basin on Fri and then
moves over Colorado through Sat. Beginning Thu night, this system will
bring another round of snow to the Continental dvd and a chance for
significant snowfall through Fri night. Snow will also spread into
the eastern mtns on Fri, but it looks like the sern plains remain
dry. Gusty westerly winds may be found acrs most of the forecast
area on Fri. High temps Fri are forecast to be around average. Fri
night a cold front moves thru the sern plains and temps on Sat will
be much cooler. There are big differences between the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
for Sat, the European model (ecmwf) moves and upper trof out of the area faster than
the GFS. This results in the GFS showing widespread pcpn acrs the
ern mtns and sern plains and the European model (ecmwf) being dry.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 433 am MST sun Dec 11 2016

VFR at all taf sites. Weak cold front will result in lighter winds
at kcos and kpub through the morning. By the afternoon, winds may
turn westerly at kcos and kpub, but will not be as gusty as last
night. --Pgw--


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am MST this morning for coz059-

Winter Storm Warning until 11 am MST this morning for coz058-060.


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations