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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
424 am MDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 424 am MDT Mon Jun 18 2018

..drier today with temperatures near average...

Much drier, subsident southwesterly flow will spread across the area
today. While still high across the area this morning, dewpoints will
fall from current readings in the 40s and 50s to mainly 30s and 40s
in the afternoon. This will help to curtail the thunderstorm and
heavy rain threat for today. If there are going to be any storms,
the most likely areas would be near the Palmer Divide or near the
Kansas border, closest to where the best moisture will be. While
there is a slight chance that this could happen, it is a very low
chance. More than likely, storms today will develop north or east of
southern Colorado. Even without precipitation to help cool the air
today, afternoon highs will still be reasonably close to averages
for this time of year. The plains will see readings from near 80 to
near 90. The high valleys will see mostly 70s. The mountains will
see mostly 50s and 60s with some 40s at the top of fourteeners like
Pikes Peak.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 424 am MDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Tuesday and Wednesday...the upper low will be poised over Idaho and
western Montana Tue morning, and is forecast to spread east across Montana
and Wyoming and into the Dakotas the remainder of Tue and into Wed.
Flow aloft across The Four Corners and Colorado will be out of the
southwest Tue morning, transitioning to west then northwest
through Wed. At the same time, surface winds are expected to be
northerly both days. Combined with all the shifting winds at
various levels will be the front left quad of the upper 100 kt jet
nosing into the state on Tue. Therefore, there is a fairly good
shot of thunderstorm activity, some strong to severe, across the
plains Tue aftn and eve, then again on Wed. Focus areas will be
along the Palmer Divide and the far eastern plains. Look for highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s both days for the high valleys,
while the plains will warm into the 80s to lower 90s for Tue, then
upper 70s to mid 80s for Wed.

Thursday and Friday...a ridge of high pressure builds into The
Four Corners region on Thu, pushing the upper low into the central
US well east of Colorado. Northwest flow aloft will keep the state
somewhat cooler on Thu, then as the upper ridge flattens and winds
aloft turn more westerly, the heat returns for Fri. Pcpn chances
both days are expected to become more diurnal in nature, with
isolated showers and storms primarily tied to the higher terrain
and adjacent plains. Temps are forecast to warm to around 80f for
the high valleys and into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the plains
on Thu, then 80s for the high valleys and upper 80s to lower 90s
for the plains on Fri.

Saturday and Sunday...the GFS and ec models disagree on what will
happen next weekend, with the ec indicating somewhat unsettled
northwest flow aloft while the GFS shows a dry Sat transitioning
to a potentially active sun as another upper trough drops down
into the region out of the north. The extended procedure split the
difference and kept temps warm, with diurnal convection on Sat
then becoming a bit more active for sun. Expect maximum temps in
the upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys both days, while
the plains warm to the mid 80s to mid 90s on Sat, then lower 8os
to lower 90s for sun. Moore


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 424 am MDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Dry, southwest flow will spread across the flight area today,
greatly limiting thunderstorm chances. There is a very low chance
that a thunderstorm could form along the Palmer Divide or near the
Kansas border. Also, there could be some brief patchy fog or low
clouds over portions of the plains this morning, particularly over
the mountains or Palmer Divide. Otherwise, VFR expected across
southern Colorado for the next 24 hours. This includes the kcos,
kpub and kals terminals. While there is a very low chance that an
afternoon or evening thunderstorm could form in the vicinity of
kcos, the chance is too low to put in the taf at this time.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


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