Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ksjt 250414 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1114 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Aviation... /06z tafs/

VFR conditions coupled with strong gusty south winds will
continue at ksjt and kabi through the next 24 hours. VFR
conditions will also prevail at the remaining sites but winds
will not be as strong. No other impacts are expected.

Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

Short term...
(tonight and tuesday)

Main concern through tomorrow is gusty winds, warm temperatures
and elevated fire weather conditions west of a line from Sweetwater
to Sterling City to Ozona. The surface pressure gradient will
continue to tighten through tomorrow as an upper level shortwave
approaches and causes pressure falls across far West Texas and the
Panhandle. South winds will remain gusty through tonight, and then
shift to the southwest mainly west of a line from Haskell to Abilene
to San Angelo to Ozona. These winds will continue to be gusty
through early afternoon Tuesday before diminishing by mid afternoon.
It should not be as hot tomorrow as previously thought because of
the strong gusty winds and the high level cloudiness expected.
Expecting afternoon highs to climb into the lower to mid 90s.

Long term...
(friday through monday)

A very active and unsettled weather pattern is in store across the
Southern Plains this weekend. The main forecast challenge will be
how bad the severe weather will be and will west central Texas see
only a few severe storms at best, due partially to a possible strong
mid level cap on Friday. Aloft, strong trough at 500 mb Will Park
itself over the southern rockies, with southwest flow developing
over our area by Friday. At the surface, looks like much of west
central Texas will be in the warm/moist sector ahead of a dryline
over the far western parts of the area Friday morning. As the
dryline moves east to the eastern 1/3 of the area by afternoon and
evening, isolated storms are possible. A few storms may be severe
due to strong buoyancy and effective shear values of around 50
knots. Thunderstorms may become more widespread across much of the
area Friday night as the dryline backs up to the west and some
weak upper level support, with a few severe storms possible. The
best chance of rain and storms will be Saturday night as a cold
front moves south across west central Texas and better large scale
ascent glances our area. Again, a few storms may be severe.
However for now on Friday, looks like the more significant severe
weather will be across Oklahoma and far North Texas, but will have
to keep a close eye on. Going with a quiet weather pattern for
Sunday through Tuesday, with cooler temperatures by early next

(tuesday night through Thursday night)

Looks like a temperature forecast and mainly dry weather through
the middle of this week. Cooler for Wednesday behind a cold
front, with highs ranging from the 70s across the Big Country to
the mid 80s across the Northwest Hill country. Expect mostly clear
skies and some radiational cooling Wednesday night, with lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Warmer temperatures will prevail
Thursday as low level southerly flow returns. Highs will be in the
mid 80s to lower 90s.

Fire weather...

Gusty southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity values
in the lower teens on Tuesday and mid teens on Thursday will result
in these near critical fire weather conditions both days. A
rangeland fire danger product might be required tomorrow since
there is plenty of green vegetation around.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 84 66 92 61 / 0 0 5 10
San Angelo 85 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 10
Junction 82 63 93 63 / 0 0 0 10
Brownwood 81 58 92 61 / 0 0 5 10
Sweetwater 85 66 92 60 / 0 0 0 10
Ozona 82 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 10


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations