Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
South winds have developed and will be 8-12 knots this afternoon,
with a few gusts to near 20 knots at kabi. Skies will be mostly
clear this afternoon and tonight. Patchy low cloud development
will be possible early Saturday morning over roughly the southern
third of west central Texas. Carrying scattered layers around
2000ft at kjct and kbbd, with temporary ceilings at ksoa. Any
remaining low clouds should dissipate by mid to late Saturday
morning. Increased south winds are expected on Saturday, with the
higher speeds and gusts at kabi.
Previous discussion... /issued 641 am CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
Threat of low clouds across the southern terminals seems to have
diminished, with the latest low cloud imagery still showing clear
skies. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue across the area
through the period, with southerly winds persisting.
Previous discussion... /issued 406 am CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
(today and tonight)
Upper level ridge of high pressure to remain in control across the
Southern Plains, with quiet weather across west central Texas.
Models were a degree or two too cool with highs on Thursday across
the area, and highs today should be in the same ballpark. This would
put afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s. Mild again tonight
with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
(saturday through thursday)
Warm and dry forecast continues into Tuesday, with upper ridging
over the region. An upper trough over the southwest U.S. May bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday.
Computer model solutions diverge Thursday on its placement,
however, with the ec digging the upper trough southward into
southern Arizona, while the GFS keeps the trough as an open wave
and moves it northeast into the central Rocky Mountains the 12z ec
model would give West Texas a chance of rain, but confidence is
lower than usual, given the model differences. Highs in the lower
and mid 80s are expected into Tuesday, with lows in the 60s.
Cooler with clouds and possible rain, Wednesday and Thursday, with
highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows near 60.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 85 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 88 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 84 57 83 58 / 0 5 0 0
Brownwood 85 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 85 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 83 59 82 56 / 0 0 0 0