Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ksjt 222311
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
611 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through most of
tonight. Expect MVFR stratus to develop across the southern
terminals and ksjt after 10z. South winds will remain elevated
at kabi through tonight, with strong south winds developing
across the remaining terminals around sunrise and into the
afternoon hours. Expect gusts between 35 and 40 knots at the
northern terminals and 20 and 30 knots at the southern terminals
by early afternoon. Visibility reductions to around 4sm with bldu
is expected at the northern terminals by noon.
Previous discussion... /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/
(tonight and thursday)
Short wave ridging aloft will move east of the area by tomorrow
morning as a potent upper level trough advances east across the
Desert Southwest. As this system approaches, surface low pressure
will deepen over eastern Colorado during the day, resulting in a
tightening pressure gradient and corresponding increase in south
winds across the area. For tonight, low clouds will develop mainly
across the southern half of the forecast area towards daybreak but
will scatter out by mid to late morning, with mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies expected into Thursday afternoon. It will be warm again
tonight, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
South winds will begin ramping up across the area by daybreak
Thursday, with windy conditions expected into the afternoon hours.
A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for portions of the area on
Thursday, especially across the western half of the forecast area
generally west of a Throckmorton, San Angelo to Ozona line.
Temperatures will remain above normal on Thursday, with afternoon
highs in the lower to middle 80s.
(thursday night through wednesday)
A series of upper level troughs will affect west central Texas this
week into next week. The first upper level trough will approach the
Southern Plains Thursday night into Friday evening, driving a
Pacific front through the region. At this time, the best dynamics
look to remain north of the area, although isolated to scattered
showers will be possible along the front. Although an isolated
strong to severe storm is possible, instability looks somewhat
limited at this time. Pops were kept in the chance category, with
most of the convection moving east of the area by late Friday
morning. Expect west winds of 15 to 25 mph behind the front on
Friday, with highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The next upper level trough will swing across the Central Plains
late Sunday into Monday morning. This will drive a cold front
through the area Monday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible along the front, mainly across the Northwest Hill
country where better moisture will reside. Despite the passage of
the front, above normal temperatures will continue through the first
part of next week, with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
The next more potent upper level system is forecast to affect west
central late Tuesday into Wednesday. The GFS continues to be deeper
and slower with respect to the upper level low/trough, while the
emcwf continues to be more progressive and less deep. For now, the
forecast was trended closer to the more consistent GFS, which would
result in better rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. Depending
on the eventual track and strength of the upper level trough, strong
to severe storms will be possible.
elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop across much
of the area on Thursday, as minimum relative humidities drop to
around 30 percent by afternoon, with sustained south winds of 20 to
25 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph.
Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across much of the
area on Friday as a drier airmass filters into the region, with
gusty west winds developing during the day. There is a chance for
showers and thunderstorms across the area Thursday night and early
Friday morning and the extent of rainfall may mitigate the threat
somewhat. At this time, it appears that rainfall amounts will be
fairly light, generally 1/4 inch or less.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 61 83 58 78 / 0 5 50 5
San Angelo 61 84 57 81 / 0 5 40 5
Junction 59 80 60 81 / 5 5 40 30
Brownwood 60 82 59 79 / 0 5 40 30
Sweetwater 61 82 56 77 / 0 5 50 5
Ozona 60 79 56 78 / 5 10 40 0