Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ksjt 250440
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1040 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018
VFR expected for the next 24 hours as dry air filters
in behind a cold front. Winds calm to light northwest overnight,
becoming east during the day. No significant aviation concerns.
Previous discussion... /issued 532 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
Cold front has pushed through all taf locations early this
evening. Seeing drier air continuing to filter in at low levels,
and expecting most of the area to stay VFR for the next 24 hours.
Will be watching the southeast for the possibility of patchy
light fog early in the morning as more low level moisture remains
over jct and soa areas. For now, have kept all tafs VFR with
northeast winds through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
(tonight and sunday)
Warm and quiet weather ahead...
The Pacific front will continue to move east across the region
through the evening. Behind the front, dry air will filter into the
region. The extent of this dry air will remain across the central
and western portions of the area, allowing for skies to become clear
this evening. The eastern half of the region won't see the dry air
and overnight low level moisture will remain in place. Patchy areas
of fog are possible along and east of a Haskell to San Saba line.
Areas that see the clear skies and light winds will see overnight
temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Areas to the east will
see overnight temperatures in the low 40s.
Expect plenty of sunshine tomorrow with breezy conditions. There is
the concern for elevated fire weather conditions during the
afternoon on Sunday. West wind will increase to around 15 to 20 mph
with higher gusts. Temperatures will be above normal with relative
humidity values dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s. We will
monitor the forecast and issue any fire weather advisories if
needed. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
(sunday night through friday)
The next upper level trough will dig south along the West Coast
early next week, with the medium range models developing a closed
upper low over Southern California by Tuesday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf)
are in decent agreement and show the upper system moving rapidly
east across the southern rockies and West Texas by Wednesday.
Should see some scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of this
system by Tuesday afternoon, then again Tuesday night and
Wednesday primarily over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Looks like another windy day on Wednesday with the passage of the
upper trough axis, with gusty southwest winds developing. A weak
cold front will move across the area Wednesday night, with
precipitation ending across southeast counties. Temperatures
will above normal Monday through Wednesday, with highs mainly in
the lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.
Dry and pleasant weather is expected late next week into the
start of next weekend, with temperatures near to slightly above
normal for this time of year.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 38 68 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 36 70 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 42 70 35 73 / 5 5 5 5
Brownwood 40 67 35 72 / 0 5 0 0
Sweetwater 35 69 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 33 71 33 72 / 5 0 0 0