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fxus64 ksjt 172354 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
654 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018

/00z tafs/

Isolated showers are affect areas near the ksjt and ksoa sites,
but not directly affecting any area sites. Expect these showers to
continue to diminish as we lose heating. The main concern for the
overnight hours will be MVFR cigs developing after 06z at our
eastern/southern sites. Have kept the mention of 2500 foot
ceilings at kbbd, kjct, and ksoa by around 09z, with those clouds
scattering out by mid morning. Could see a few showers again
tomorrow, but coverage is not expected to be high enough yet to
warrant a mention in these tafs. 20


Previous discussion... /issued 255 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018/

Short term...
tonight and monday)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms were developing in the Concho
Valley this afternoon, although most the storms associated with an
upper disturbance moving north through New Mexico were farther
west in the Permian Basin and Crockett County.

Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
Crockett County and western sections of the Concho Valley and Big
Country tonight. Rain chance increase over southeast sections,
into the 40 to 50 percent range...from Junction to Mason to San an moisture moves up from the Gulf. Some storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall Monday, as precipital water amounts
increase into the 1.5 to 2.0 range and the atmosphere becomes
more tropical. Localized street flooding possible, although
coverage may be spotty.

Long term...
Monday night through sunday)

The potential for widespread significant rainfall across portions
of the area continues to slowly diminish, although scattered
showers and thunderstorms will certainly occur. Upper level trough
axis will remain across the Northwest Hill country and Heartland
and slide east through mid week. This keeps the best moisture
across the eastern counties which means that the best diurnal
convection will occur there as well, roughly east of an Brownwood
to Brady to Junction line. More scattered activity will occur
farther west and north from Ozona and Sonora up through the Concho
Valley and San Angelo and north into the Big Country. With more
afternoon cloud cover, temperatures will cool a few degrees as

By next weekend, the GFS redevelops a upper level ridge across
west central Texas, while the European model (ecmwf) tries to redevelop a closed
low almost Erin-like feature (complete with 60kt 850 mb winds)
across the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. This seems like
highly unlikely scenario at this point so will basically ignore it
for next weekend and leave most areas dry.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 72 90 70 86 / 5 20 20 20
San Angelo 73 91 71 87 / 20 20 20 30
Junction 73 89 70 84 / 20 40 30 60
Brownwood 74 90 71 85 / 10 40 20 50
Sweetwater 73 90 70 86 / 20 20 20 20
Ozona 72 91 70 88 / 20 30 30 20


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...

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