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fxus64 ksjt 261758 aab 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1158 am CST sun Feb 26 2017

/18z tafs/

VFR conditions will resume early this afternoon at our southern
taf sites as the low cloud cover breaks up. Gusty south-southwest
winds will decrease by mid- to late afternoon, and winds at most
of our taf sites will be fairly light through much of tonight.
A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and early evening mainly east of a Brownwood to Mason
line, but will monitor radar and satellite trends to assess
whether a mention may needed as far west as kbbd and kjct.
For later tonight (between midnight and 7 am), the possibility of
a few isolated showers and thundersotorms cannot be ruled out for
the area southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood line. At this time,
carrying a prob30 group for showers at kjct. Low cloud development
is expected again over the southern and southeastern parts of
west central Texas. Carrying low cloud ceilings at ksoa, kbbd
and kjct, with ceilings expected to be in the range of 700-1500
feet. Low cloud cover should break up by mid- to late morning
Monday. Light winds will become southwest on Monday morning with
an increase in wind speeds at ksjt and kabi.



Previous discussion... /issued 526 am CST sun Feb 26 2017/

/12z tafs/

VFR conditions continue across most of west central Texas
terminals early this morning. However, latest observations
indicate low cloudiness surging northward as low level moisture
moves into the area. Will drop ceilings to MVFR for all locations
except kabi (abilene) through late morning. Expect IFR conditions
tomorrow morning for kjct and ksoa.

Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CST sun Feb 26 2017/

Short term...
(today and tonight)

An upper shortwave trough over Southern California this morning
will quickly move eastward today and will be over the Texas
Panhandle by tonight. Concomitantly, a tight dryline now along the
Texas/nm border will also move eastward today becoming more diffuse
as moves over the forecast area. Low-level moisture now over
southern Texas will move north over the forecast area today with
the best moisture favoring those counties east of the eastward
moving dryline. In addition to increasing cloud cover, there is a
slight chance of showers developing over our southeastern counties
along and east of the dryline this afternoon including isolated
thunderstorms later this evening. Afternoon highs today will be in
the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies . Southwest winds 10
to 20 mph this morning will diminish through the afternoon. Given
the expected cloud cover encompassing the entire County Warning Area by tonight,
morning lows tomorrow will be warmer, in the the upper 40s to
around 50 degrees.


Long term...
(monday through next saturday)

Generally dry weather will continue through the extended forecast,
although the pattern will be progressive with a few upper level
troughs moving across the area. The first in this series of
troughs will move across Monday. Moisture will be drawn northward
ahead of the trough. There will be a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday with this trough for areas mainly southeast
of our area, but locations near and southeast of San Saba and
Mason will also have a slight chance. Temperatures Monday and
Tuesday will be unseasonably warm with highs 99/99/99from the
upper 70s to mid 80s.

The next trough will move across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and will be stronger than monday's. There will again be
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, this time mainly
east of a Brownwood to Junction line Tuesday night. Behind this
second trough, a significant cold front will sweep through the
area Wednesday, bringing much cooler temperatures and gusty north
winds. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 50s north of
I-20 to the upper 60s along and south of I-10. Highs in the 60s
will persist through Saturday. The next trough to affect the area
is expected to be a broad, weaker trough that will move in from
northern Mexico. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will
affect areas generally southeast of a Brownwood to Ozona line
Saturday into Saturday night.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 71 49 77 54 / 0 5 0 5
San Angelo 76 48 81 53 / 5 5 0 5
Junction 71 51 81 55 / 10 10 5 5
Brownwood 70 49 79 53 / 10 10 5 5
Sweetwater 73 48 77 52 / 0 5 0 0
Ozona 72 47 79 50 / 5 10 0 0


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...

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