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fxus64 ksjt 162334 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
634 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

/00z tafs/

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all five terminals
through the taf period. Winds will mostly be light, but a slight
increase is expected across kabi and ksjt starting at around 16z
on Tuesday.


Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

Short term...
(tonight and tomorrow)

Tonight is shaping up to be another cold night across the area.
Expect strong radiational cooling tonight, under clear skies and
light and variable winds. Overnight lows tonight will range from
the upper 30s to low 40s across the area. Isolated lower readings
in the low to mid 30s could be possible in the sheltered valley
areas from Sterling City south to Mertzon. Tomorrow is shaping up
to be another beautiful fall day under mostly sunny skies. Winds
will switch to the south allowing for temperatures to rebound into
the mid to upper 70s, after a cold start to the day.


Long term...
(tuesday night through next monday)

Quiet weather through the end of the work week. A weak zonal flow
or flat ridging pattern will develop aloft from Tuesday into the
second half of the week. This will allow southerly low level flow
to become established across the area, bringing moisture and
warmer weather back into west central Texas. Highs by Wednesday
will be back into the 80s, with highs hovering around 80 degrees
through Saturday. Overnight lows will warm into the 50s by
Wednesday night, and 60s by Friday night as moisture increases,
limiting overnight cooling. Thursday night into Friday, along with
the moisture increase, a weak upper level shortwave will move
through Texas. This could be enough for a slight chance of
precipitation across parts of the area.

Later in the forecast, 12z medium range model guidance has come
into better agreement, indicating a sharp, strong trough moving
across the central U. S. Next weekend. If the timing holds up,
this will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday night, as well as another cold front through the area
Sunday morning.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 44 78 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 40 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 41 78 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 42 77 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 44 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 42 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...

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