Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ksjt 261103 
afdsjt

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
603 am CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Aviation...
/12z tafs/

A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms is moving southeast
across the Permian Basin and may approach ksjt and kabi after 12z.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, decreasing this evening. Stratus will result in
MVFR ceilings at all sites this morning, with VFR conditions
returning by late morning or early afternoon. Light and variable
winds this morning will become east at around 10 knots this
afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 336 am CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Short term...
(today and tonight)

A line of thunderstorms is moving southeast across the South Plains
and Permian Basin early this morning. This convection is forecast to
slowly weaken later this morning as it approaches our western
counties. This should set the stage for additional shower and
thunderstorm development this afternoon, along remnant outflow
boundaries. Pops were kept in the 30-50 percent range across much of
the forecast area. The main concern with these storms will be
locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds. Highs today will once
again be below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 80s. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight, with lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

Long term...
(tuesday through sunday)

Upper level high pressure will remain centered across the
southwest US on Tuesday, creating northerly flow aloft across
west central Texas. Models continue to indicate isolated to
scattered convection across the area, mainly across the Heartland
and Hill Country counties southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line.
The upper level ridge builds across the area more on Wednesday and
continues through the rest of the work week. High weakens lightly
over the weekend as the center of the high redevelops across East
Texas for early next week. This transition leaves a brief window
where a few showers and storms will again be possible across
mainly the Big Country on Friday night.

High temperatures will gradually climb through the week, with the
hottest temperatures on Friday and Saturday wit readings again
climbing to near the 100 degree mark in a few locations.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 85 67 89 70 / 40 30 20 5
San Angelo 89 69 90 70 / 50 40 20 5
Junction 87 69 87 68 / 50 30 30 5
Brownwood 85 68 88 68 / 40 20 20 5
Sweetwater 84 67 92 69 / 50 30 20 5
Ozona 87 68 90 68 / 40 30 20 10

&&

Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations