Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
348 am CDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016
(today and tonight)
Our area will be under mainly southerly flow aloft today and tonight.
To our east, the upper level high over the southeastern Continental U.S. Will
weaken slightly today and tonight. To our west, the upper trough
currently over western New Mexico will move slowly east today, and
will shear out somewhat as it lifts northeast tonight. The upper
high will be the prevailing influence for our area. Temperatures
today are expected to be similar to yesterday, with highs late this
afternoon in the 90-95 degree range. Skies will be generally clear
to partly cloudy over our area.
With the approach of the aforementioned trough, showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across The
Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin areas into parts of northwest Texas
this afternoon and evening. This convective activity will
essentially remain west and northwest of our area, and most of the
convection is expected to dissipate by midnight tonight. We are
carrying nominal slight chance pops in parts of our far western
(thursday through wednesday)
Subtropical ridge when has been slowly shifting west into Texas
the last few days will begin to retreat back to the north and
east, becoming centered over the Carolinas by Friday and Saturday.
Upper level flow across west central Texas will be weak over the
weekend and into early next week, but without the ridge in place,
appears there will be a few weak shortwaves set to cross the area.
In addition, if nothing else at least the area will not be capped.
Thus, the slight chance pops in place already for the weekend and
into early next week seems like the best forecast for now.
Temperatures will be near or a little below seasonal normals, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 94 71 94 69 / 10 5 5 10
San Angelo 94 71 94 69 / 5 5 5 10
Junction 93 70 92 69 / 0 0 5 5
Brownwood 92 70 93 70 / 5 0 5 5
Sweetwater 93 70 92 68 / 20 10 10 10
Ozona 92 70 91 69 / 10 5 5 10