Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ksjt 161748
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1148 am CST Mon Jan 16 2017
West winds 10 kts or less will shift north overnight as a weak
cold front with north winds 10 kts or less moves through. MVFR
stratus otherwise returns late tonight along the I-10 corridor and
spreads north to ksjt and kbbd toward daybreak. Ceilings will
gradually lower Tuesday morning with light showers along the I-10
corridor. Kabi will likely see ceilings lower close to MVFR noon
Previous discussion... /issued 635 am CST Mon Jan 16 2017/
Updated zones and grids to cancel the dense fog advisory.
Previous discussion... /issued 549 am CST Mon Jan 16 2017/
Besides IFR conditions at the kjct terminal this morning, expect
VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The winds will be light.
Previous discussion... /issued 436 am CST Mon Jan 16 2017/
(today and tonight)
The main forecast problem will be patchy dense fog across much of
the Big Country and Heartland this morning. Going with dense fog
advisory until 10 am. However, 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery and
current observations indicates fog is dissipating in the advisory
area. If this trend continues, may cancel the advisory early.
Otherwise, a quiet forecast for the next 24 hours across west
central Texas. A weak cold front will move across the area
tonight, clearing the I-10 corridor after midnight. Highs today
will be mainly in the 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s and
(tuesday through sunday)
The cold front that will move across the area tonight will stall
south of the area on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper low over northern
Mexico will move slowly towards the region through Wednesday.
Ahead of this system, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected to develop Tuesday into early Wednesday as isentropic
ascent increases north of the frontal boundary and weak
disturbances lift northeast across the area. Best rain chances
will be across the southeast half of the forecast area Tuesday
and Tuesday night, with precipitation ending across southeast
counties on Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 50s,
with highs on Wednesday mainly in the upper 50s.
Warmer and breezy weather is on tap Thursday through Saturday,
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. The medium range models
show another shortwave affecting the area over the weekend, which
may additional rain chances to the area. For now, keeping slight
pops in the forecast for Saturday night.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 61 36 52 40 / 0 0 20 40
San Angelo 68 38 54 41 / 0 5 40 50
Junction 70 41 54 44 / 5 10 50 60
Brownwood 65 40 53 42 / 5 5 40 50
Sweetwater 60 35 53 39 / 0 0 20 40
Ozona 67 41 53 41 / 0 5 40 50