Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
332 am CDT Wed Apr 25 2018
(today and tonight)
Area of showers and storms has been persistent south of I-20 across
Nolan and Taylor counties early this morning. Latest high-res models
suggests that it should begin to break up and shift east before 12z
this morning as the cold front undercuts it and moves south across
the area. However, both the ttu WRF and the hrrr show an another
area of mainly light Post-frontal rain developing later this morning
and continuing into the afternoon across much of west central Texas.
Will keep rain chances fairly high for the day, but adjustments
based on radar trends will be possible shortly before sunrise.
Otherwise, temperatures will be cool with the colder air mass and
abundant cloud cover. Highs only in the 50s and 60s today. Clearing
skies tonight with lows in the 40s.
(thursday through wednesday)
Rain chances will go away temporarily, however, below normal
temperatures remain in the forecast for the next few days. The cold
front that is expected to arrive Thursday night and into Friday
morning will keep temperatures down. However, no additional rain
chances are currently anticipated with this frontal passage. In
fact, the area will remain without rain chances through much of the
Afterwards, the forecast becomes much more uncertain with regards to
another possible disturbance moving in from the west during the
early part of next week. Models continue to show disagreement with
regards the positioning of the system. However, there remains some
possibility for additional rain chances beginning on Sunday night
and also for the next day or two in particular. Chances remain low
as uncertainty is still high.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 59 42 76 46 / 50 10 0 5
San Angelo 64 44 80 48 / 50 10 0 10
Junction 68 46 82 50 / 60 30 0 10
Brownwood 63 44 79 46 / 60 20 0 5
Sweetwater 58 42 77 46 / 50 5 0 5
Ozona 66 44 78 49 / 60 10 0 10