Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
631 am CDT sun Sep 25 2016
Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue the next 24
hours. Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR this morning. San
Angelo and Abilene ceilings are expected to IFR this afternoon as
a cold front moves through. Southern terminals should fall to IFR
overnight. Otherwise occasionally heavy rainfall in stronger
thunderstorms will lower visibilities to 1 mile at times through
the next 24 hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 449 am CDT sun Sep 25 2016/
(today and tonight)
Potential flooding continues to be the main weather threat through
tonight. An upper low west of El Paso will continue to bring upper
level divergence over the region. Precipitable water values
remain high at 1.5 to 2 inches. A cold front will push through the
region this afternoon, providing a low level focus for
development. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
possible over the Concho Valley, Crockett and Sutton counties.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 2 inches are possible
elsewhere. Will keep same flash flood configuration through 7 am
(monday through tuesday)
.Flash Flood Watch extension possible...
Very promising rain chances will continue across all of west
central Texas for Monday, with decreasing chances into Monday
night and Tuesday. Models indicate precipitable water values on
Monday will remain high, especially for our southwestern counties.
Thus, extending the Flash Flood Watch into Monday, for some of our
counties, is a possibility. For Monday night and Tuesday, rain
chances diminish, as the upper low to the west retrogrades farther
west, and high pressure begins to build over Texas.
(Tuesday night through saturday)
The remainder of the long term is dry, with temperatures very
close to seasonal normals. High pressure will build over the
region, from Wednesday through the end of this work week, as an
upper ridge dominates the plains. By Friday and into Saturday,
the upper ridge does weaken, and flow aloft over Texas becomes
more zonal. However, models indicate the dry pattern will
continue into the start of next weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 74 58 66 55 / 90 80 70 20
San Angelo 78 59 67 55 / 100 90 70 30
Junction 81 65 71 56 / 80 80 70 40
Brownwood 81 62 70 56 / 80 80 70 20
Sweetwater 72 56 64 54 / 90 80 70 20
Ozona 77 61 67 53 / 100 90 70 40
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Coke-Crockett-