Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
902 PM MDT Thursday Jul 28 2016
Synopsis...high pressure will remain in place along the Utah
Nevada border through the weekend. Moisture rotating around this
ridge will slowly increase across the region through this time.
Discussion...evening water vapor imagery and objective analysis
show a mid level ridge extending from The Four Corners region
westward into the southern Great Basin. This ridge orientation is
keeping deeper monsoonal moisture suppressed southward across AZ,
however mid level moisture which has seeped into the ridge axis
has spread across southwest Utah allowing for high based convection
this afternoon. A very deep and dry boundary layer kept much of
any of this precipitation from reaching the surface, but also
supported a few microburst gusts. This convection has largely
waned this evening with the loss of daytime heating/instability,
and with the exception of the far southwest have removed pops
from most areas for the remainder of the evening/overnight hours.
This ridge axis is forecast to largely remain in place through the
weekend, maintaining a very warm airmass across the forecast area.
Moisture rotating around the periphery of the ridge across
central Nevada will spread into the forecast area and slowly increase
over the next few days. This will allow for an increasing threat
of convection - initially dry with a threat of microbursts but as
the column gradually moistens an increasing chance for measurable
rainfall as well. With the increase in cloud cover and convective
activity temperatures should begin to cool slightly as the weekend
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail at kslc through the taf
period, with northwest winds switching back to the south by 04z.
Utah...red flag warning from noon Friday to 10 PM MDT Saturday for
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for utz478>484-488-489.
Excessive heat warning until 9 PM MDT Friday for utz019.
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