Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 221533
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
933 am MDT sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis...a mild westerly flow aloft will result in warmer
temperatures today. A weak cold front tonight will curb the
warming trend for tomorrow before high pressure rebuilds through
the middle of the week.
Discussion...the forecast area is under a zonal flow this morning
on the front side of a relatively Flat Ridge centered off the
Pacific coast. The flattening is due to a system moving over the
top of the ridge over Oregon and Idaho. Moisture from this system
is resulting in some lower to mid-level clouds over southwest
Wyoming and near the Utah/Idaho border, but impacts are otherwise
minimal. With this flow providing warm advection and some better
mixing, there will be noticeable warming in the temperatures today
compared to yesterday, with maxes running near or slightly above
As the system passes to our north, it is expected to bring a
shallow frontal boundary through tonight, curbing the warming
trend for all but southeast Utah. Behind this, high pressure is
expected to build through the middle of the week, keeping things
dry and allowing the airmass to warm aloft. This will result in
very mild temperatures for the higher elevations but limited
mixing will make it so these temperatures are not fully realized
in valley locations.
The next storm system is expected to impact the forecast area by
Thursday, but significant differences continue to exist among the
global models with regard to the strength of this system. The ec
has been consistent in showing a much colder and more moist system
than the GFS, which continues to show a system of limited impact.
No updates expected to the forecast this morning.
Aviation...the slc terminal will see VFR conditions throughout
the day with some scattered clouds. Southeast winds are expected
to shift to the northwest between 19z and 21z.
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