Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 221705
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1005 am MST Wed Feb 22 2017
Synopsis...a cold upper trough will cross the region today and
tonight. A cold moist and unstable northwest flow will follow the
trough Thursday into Friday.
Discussion...morning radar and satellite trends show a continuing
band of snow and rain/snow mix across Juab County into the
mountain valleys of Utah. Upper level diffluence across northern
Nevada and southern Idaho with cooling cloud tops, as seen on infrared
imagery, is associated with the very cold air mass that will move
into Utah by Thursday morning. As the cold front remains mostly
stalled out across central and north-central Utah, precip activity
will be in a lull through mid day.
The secondary wave this afternoon will converge along the cold
front, and expecting the area of rain/snow to expand and fill in
all along the I-15 corridor through the northern Wasatch front.
Timing for the evening commute looks to be mostly wet in northern
valley locations with the mountains and mountain routes continuing
to see wintry conditions. Cold air aloft continues to pour into
Utah with unstable conditions persisting and a turn to northwest
flow after about 00z this afternoon. As the night continues,
valleys look to light up with rain changing to snow, with possible
accumulations, after midnight leading to the Thursday morning
Southeast Wyoming snowy morning conditions have improved and the
going headline was allowed to expire. Wet and slick roads may
continue through the afternoon before the next wave of precip
develops. The mountain winter headlines remain in effect and this
afternoon will focus on any headlines needed for Wasatch front
valley locations into the evening and especially for Thursday
Aviation...VFR conditions are expected at the slc terminal through
about 22-24z after which MVFR snow and lower cigs are expected
through about 03z. There is a 30 percent chance that MVFR conditions
will linger through 06z. Starting between 12 and 14z IFR conditions
in snow are likely and will continue until about 18z.
Utah...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 am MST Friday for utz007>010-517.
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