Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 180402
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
902 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis...a cold upper trough will start to move into the Great
Basin on Sunday, then move slowly south and east across the
region through Tuesday. The coldest air of the season will
accompany this storm, and remain over the area through much of the
Discussion...a cold upper trof continues to deepen over swrn
Canada and the pacnw states this evening with a fast westerly flow
downstream across Utah this evening.
South winds picked up today and are continuing in many locations
this evening with mild temperatures. A short wave ejecting out of
the West Coast trof is shifting rapidly east thru the nrn rockies
and has pushed some cloudiness into the nrn County Warning Area while skies across
the remainder of the area are clear.
The passing wave will push the developing frontal boundary almost
to the nrn Utah border late tonight with a few light showers right
along the border, but it looks like the bulk of precip holds off
until after 12z when the main upper trof starts to sag swd thru
Washington and or.
Models remain very consistent pushing a tightening baroclinic zone
swd thru Utah on sun as the upper trof deepens into the Great Basin.
This strengthening cold front will be accompanied by a swath of
heavy precip and it will likely change over quickly to snow once
the front passes, or even start right out as snow. Snow should
continue a number of hours behind the front then gradually taper
off from the north on Monday. The very cold airmass following the
front will result in snow sticking to all surfaces significantly
impacting travel Sunday night and Mon.
The cold pool with the upper trof will keep instability showers
going into Tue and with orographic help, some mtn areas will get
large totals, and snow could also persist in adjacent upwind
valleys. Current suite of winter weather highlights is on track
and no changes needed at this time.
Strong south winds ahead of the cold front tomorrow afternoon will
reach advisory levels and the wind highlight is also on track.
Updated forecasts earlier to lower pops nrn Utah after midnight. No
other changes planned at this time.
Last afd for ME. Am moving on after 32 1/2 years with the National Weather Service.
Been a good career, and i've seen a lot of changes in that time.
Best part has been all the good dedicated people I have had the
opportunity and good fortune to work with, both inside and outside
the agency. Best wishes to all and thanks for the memories!
Aviation...because of the storm system approaching the terminal,
you will see southerly winds through the evening hours that are
expected to become gusty during the overnight hours. The winds will
peak during the late morning before the approach of the front,
expected by early afternoon. VFR conditions will be expected through
the evening and overnight hours with high and mid level clouds
expected to remain well above 6000 feet above ground level overnight.
Utah...Wind Advisory from 9 am to 9 PM MST Sunday for utz013-020-021.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 am Sunday to 4 PM MST Monday for
Winter Storm Warning from 5 am Sunday to 5 am MST Monday for
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am Sunday to 5 am MST Monday for
Winter Storm Warning from noon Sunday to noon MST Monday for
Winter Storm Warning from 5 am to 11 PM MST Sunday for utz001-
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 9 PM MST Monday for
Wind Advisory from 9 am to 8 PM MST Sunday for utz015-016.
Wyoming...Winter Storm Warning from 9 am Sunday to noon MST Monday for
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