Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 211036
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
436 am MDT Sat Apr 21 2018
Synopsis...high pressure will bring a warming and drying trend
for the weekend, with a weak storm system brushing northern Utah
early next week.
Short term (through 12z tuesday)...the upper low centered over
eastern Colorado this morning continues to shift east while high
pressure builds into Utah behind it. Clouds and precipitation have
mostly cleared out over the forecast area, and expect mostly clear
skies to continue throughout the day. Afternoon Max temperatures
today will trend slightly warmer than yesterday across northwest
Utah, but much warmer across the south and east where clouds and
precipitation hindered solar insolation yesterday.
Temperatures will continue trending warmer tomorrow ahead of the
next approaching storm system. This storm is only expected to graze
northern Utah tomorrow night into Tuesday, but will push a cold
front through the area. This front will become increasingly shallow
across central and southern Utah Monday as the surface boundary
outruns the upper support. Precipitation will mainly be a threat
across the north tomorrow night through Monday as the upper jet dips
into northern Utah.
Long term (after 12z tuesday)...the slow moving trough is forecast
to continue pushing south through primarily Colorado and eastern
Utah through the day Tuesday, before finally ejecting Tuesday night.
The associated cold front will likely cool temperatures a bit
through this period, but otherwise any impacts should be minimal. If
the track shifts a little further westward, isolated showers could
develop across the eastern half of the County Warning Area during the day Tuesday.
Ridging rebuilds over the eastern Great Basin on Wednesday, before
another glancing trough is expected to push south into Colorado and
far eastern Utah on Wednesday night and Thursday. Current runs have
this trough even a bit further east than the Tuesday wave, so no
significant impacts are currently expected.
A larger ridge is forecast to shift over the Utah Friday and into
the weekend, kicking off a warming trend. If the warmer European model (ecmwf)
solution during this time frame verifies, next weekend has the
potential to produce the warmest temperatures of the calendar year
Aviation...winds at the slc terminal are expected to switch to the
northwest around 16-18z. No additional operational weather concerns
are expected today.
For more information from noaa's National Weather Service visit...