Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 191646
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
946 am MST Thu Jan 19 2017
Synopsis...an active pattern will develop across the region, with
a series of weather systems crossing the area through the middle
of next week.
Discussion...an upper trough currently centered over the Sierra
Nevada will continue to translate eastward, its core tracking across
southern Utah and northern Arizona tonight. Meanwhile, a weak
shortwave disturbance ejecting northeast ahead of this main trough
continues to cross northeast Utah and will exit into Wyoming by this
afternoon. Snow developed as this wave reached the area earlier this
morning. Accumulations appear mostly minor thus far based on
available obs, although there was some accumulation on area roadways
during the morning commute.
With the disturbance exiting east, snow rates across northern Utah
would tend to decrease. However, with developing 700mb cold
advection in northwesterly flow, some areas, including the mountains
and adjacent upslope regions such as portions of the Wasatch front,
will continue to see accumulating snow and periods of heavier
snowfall rates through the afternoon hours.
Meanwhile, with the main trough focusing on the southern portions of
the forecast area, expect precipitation to increase there for the
afternoon and evening hours, with snow above around 5000-5500ft. In
addition, most models agree on the idea of an area of enhanced
precipitation across west-central Utah this afternoon as an area of
low-level convergence strengthens in response to the northwesterly
700mb flow pushing into the area. Thus, this area may end up seeing
the greatest valley accumulations for the rest of today.
Planning on leaving current winter weather highlights in place for
now, but may drop zone 5 early if model trends hold. Some mountain
zones could end up falling a bit short on amounts, however.
No updates this morning.
Aviation...for the kslc terminal, expect snow to continue through
the day, with IFR conditions expected through the day in heavier
snow. Brief periods of LIFR cigs and vis are possible in heavier
snow. Accumulation on untreated surfaces is expected to be around 1
inch. Winds will be mainly light and northerly but may be variable
Utah...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am MST Friday for utz007-008-
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for utz005.
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