Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 192159
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
359 PM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018
high pressure aloft will remain over the area tonight and
Saturday. Unsettled weather will return late Saturday through the
beginning of next week as a Pacific low moves slowly inland from
the California coast.
Short term (through 00z tuesday)...high pressure remains in
place over much of the intermountain west this afternoon, leading
to sunny skies and seasonable temperatures across Utah and
southwest Wyoming. These clear conditions with primarily light
winds will continue through tonight, leading to a crisp fall
Saturday morning to kick off the weekend.
Clouds will begin to increase over southern Utah through the day
Saturday, as additional moisture pushes into the state from the
south ahead of a broad upper low over the California coast. Models
have trended a bit slower with this system over the last 24
hours, both with regards to the eastward progression of the trough
and the northward push of moisture over Utah. This led to a bit
of trimming of pops for Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
morning, but showers still have a chance to impact much of the
forecast area by Sunday evening.
Synoptic forcing improves even more through Sunday night and
Monday, as the upper low pushes across the Great Basin in earnest.
This continues to look like a warm system, with snow levels
generally remaining around 10kft, so only the higher peaks are
expected to see snow accumulation. Otherwise, expect scattered
rain showers across the area through this time. Some lightning is
also not out of the question late Sunday through monday; this is
especially true across southwest Utah, which should generally be
closer to the mid-level cold pool.
Long term (after 00z tuesday)...the aforementioned low will be in
the slow process of filling and moving northeast at the beginning of
the long term forecast period. The influence of the low will
continue Monday night and Tuesday with isolated valley precipitation
and scattered precipitation in higher terrain areas. Continuing into
Tuesday-Wednesday, a lack of significant dynamic forcing will
support a gradual lowering of pops through Thursday when an upper
level ridge moves into the County Warning Area behind a sharp upper level trough.
This ridge will allow for dry flow aloft to prevail over much of the
forecast area with the only potential precip lingering across
extreme northern Utah and southwest Wyoming late next week in
response to short wave troughs skirting just north of the forecast
Temperatures will hover near climatology through mid next week but
increase to 4-8 degrees above normal for many locations by Friday
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail at slc through the taf
period. Northerly winds are expected to shift to the southeast
around 02-03z per norm.
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