Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 150126
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
826 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018
the squall line is currently in place from northwest Sumter County
SW through Pinellas County, and continuing SW through the
rest of the central coastal waters. The line continues to
slow in its progression through the area, but there
continues to be strong winds aloft and high helicity and
shear, so will allow the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in place
continue through 10pm tonight. Have also adjusted the pops
for the overnight period and will update for that. Rest of
forecast is on track.
squall line is moving into the northern taf sites currently.
Will continue to spread southward through the evening hours
and gradually clear north to south as well toward morning.
Have MVFR ceilings continuing through the later morning
hours, then finally lifting in the afternoon. Winds veer to
the west behind the line.
the squall line will continue to move through the coastal
waters through the overnight hours, with lingering showers
remaining behind it. Small Craft Advisory will continue across the area
through 4am, with another Small Craft Advisory likely needed for seas only
there after as significant swells from the west Gulf move
into the waters. Winds turn to the west through tomorrow,
then the north/northwest for Sunday and Monday. Will keep current watch
and advisories for now. Current forecast is on track.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 65 71 60 69 / 100 30 10 10
fmy 68 75 62 74 / 80 30 10 0
gif 65 73 58 72 / 90 40 10 10
srq 66 71 62 70 / 100 30 10 10
bkv 63 72 55 69 / 100 30 10 10
spg 64 72 61 69 / 100 30 10 10
Florida...high rip current risk through Monday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Flood Watch until 4 am EST Saturday for coastal Citrus-
coastal Hernando-coastal Levy-coastal Pasco-inland
Citrus-inland Hernando-inland Levy-inland Pasco-
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Saturday for coastal
waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida
out 20 nm-coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 nm-Tampa Bay waters-waters
from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm-
waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to
60 nm-waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida
out 20 to 60 nm.