Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 210807
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
307 am EST Thu Feb 21 2019
Skies were mostly clear this morning with patchy fog in
Inverness and Sebring. This fog was not detected by
satellite suggesting it was shallow and localized.
Short term (today and friday)...
unseasonably warm February weather and weak high pressure
will lead to the Gulf Coast sea breeze front moving inland
this afternoon with a chance of showers each afternoon. High
temperatures should remain just below record values.
Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
strong upper level subtropical ridge begins to flatten out
late in the weekend with zonal flow aloft next week. A weak
cold front moves into the area later on Sunday then stalls
across South Florida Monday. The coolest day during the
period will be on Tuesday with highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler
than Monday (almost normal temperatures) north of a Sarasota
to Sebring line. Only a few degrees cooler to the south.
Temperatures rebound on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered
showers through Sunday but better rain chances next week due
to stalled front and fast zonal flow aloft.
clear skies and light winds will create a fog potential until 15z
from Lakeland to Fort Myers. Lal and pgd are favored locations for
fog so MVFR visibility there, potential for IFR. Otherwise VFR. Weak Gulf
Coast sea breeze develops this afternoon with rain chances at
coastal terminals only 10-20%. Added vcsh in lal this evening.
high pressure across the waters will keep winds and seas benign
into the weekend. Then a cold front moving in late Sunday will
turn winds to the north but seas to remain 4 feet or less.
Atlantic high pressure will be found across the state with sea
breeze fronts moving inland each afternoon. The chance of showers
will be along the sea breeze front. Patchy ground fog will be
limited to isolated inland locations.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 85 70 85 70 / 10 20 10 10
fmy 85 67 87 69 / 30 20 10 10
gif 88 67 88 69 / 20 20 10 10
srq 83 69 81 68 / 10 20 10 10
bkv 87 67 88 66 / 10 20 10 10
spg 85 70 84 69 / 10 20 10 10