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fxus62 ktbw 211503 aaa 
afdtbw

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1003 am EST Wed Feb 21 2018

..near record high temperatures this afternoon...

Update...
anomalously strong mid level ridge with 500 mb heights to
595 dm will continue off the Carolina coast and extend to
west central Florida through the afternoon. Low level east-southeast/southeast flow
will average around 15 knots in the lowest few kft and keep
any late West Coast sea breeze pinned near the beaches or
more likely just offshore. 12z Tampa sounding indicates
precipitable water values just over an inch and substantial
dry air in the 800 mb-300 mb layer. This will lead to another very
warm afternoon with high temps ranging from the mid 80s near
the coast and in the upper 80s across the interior. Some
record high temperatures are expected again this afternoon
across west central Florida.

&&

Aviation...
scattered-broken clouds from 020-030 (mainly south of ktpa-ksef) will
become VFR all areas into mid day as cumulus bases rise
with daytime heating. East-southeast winds will increase to
10 to 12 knots after 15z with a few higher gusts possible
after 18z. East-southeast winds will diminish to 5 to 7
knots after 02z tonight. Some MVFR br may develop late
tonight at klal and ft Myers area terminals.

&&

Marine...
east southeast winds to 10-15 knots across the Gulf waters
through this afternoon. Forecast on track. Previous...strong
surface high pressure from the western Atlantic extending
west across the southeastern states and northern Gulf Coast
will maintain southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
across the Gulf waters today and tonight. The pressure
gradient associated with the high will remain tight enough
to keep any sea breeze component just offshore today, but as
the high weakens on Thursday better chances for the sea
breeze component will increase.

&&

Climate...
near record high temperatures are expected across much of
west central Florida this afternoon. Here are some record
high temperatures for today and the year set.

Brooksville 85 1997
Tampa 87 1961
Lakeland 89 1989
St Petersburg 86 1961
Sarasota 87 1997
Fort Myers 91 1944

Here are some record high minimum temperatures for today and
the year set.

Tampa 69 2014
Lakeland 68 1989
St Petersburg 68 1989
Sarasota 67 1975
Fort Myers 70 2014

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 86 67 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 88 66 86 66 / 0 0 10 10
gif 88 65 86 65 / 0 0 10 10
srq 86 66 84 65 / 0 0 0 10
bkv 88 64 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
spg 85 67 83 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.

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