Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 251936
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
236 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
Short term (tonight-sunday)...
nearly zonal flow remains aloft this afternoon with a surface cold
front over the Florida Panhandle. This front will move through the
peninsula tonight, with maybe just a few extra clouds and no rain
expected. Fog is not expected to be as much of an issue tonight, but
the southwest Florida region could still see some patchy fog a few
hours before sunrise ahead of the boundary.
The rest of Sunday should be very pleasant as high pressure builds in
over the southeast U.S. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler than today (and closer to normal values), but it will be dew
points about 20 degrees lower than today that will really make it
feel nice outside under mostly sunny skies.
Long term (sunday night-saturday)...
fast zonal flow across the southern U.S. Starts out the period.
Surface high pressure centered off the Carolinas will provide
southeast flow Monday. Sea breeze is expected to develop along the
West Coast with the strong convergence along the Nature Coast.
Atlantic showers may reach into areas east of Highway 27 from Haines
City through Sebring.
Strong upper level ridge builds north into Florida Tuesday and
Wednesday with near record or record temperatures possible. Inland
high temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs in
the upper 80s.
A cold front moves south over the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
Chance of rain 30 to 40 percent north of Interstate 4 and 10 to 20
percent to the south. Accumulations will be light.
Cool high pressure builds in Friday and Saturday with temperatures
forecast to be 1 to 5 degrees below normal with highs 69 to 77
VFR conditions continue this afternoon and are expected for much of
the forecast period. The only exception will be some patchy fog
possible at the normally fog-prone terminals of kpgd and klal.
Northwest winds today will become northeast through Sunday afternoon.
a cold front will move through the region tonight, with no rain
expected. Winds will increase to exercise caution levels tonight for
the Gulf waters and then decrease for Sunday. High pressure over the
southeast will then shift out into the Atlantic for Monday and
Tuesday, with winds becoming more southeasterly. There will be
another surge in winds to exercise caution levels on Sunday night,
but otherwise, no headlines are expected through mid-week.
a cold front will move through the area tonight, with a drier air
mass moving over the region for Sunday. Several hours of critical
relative humidity values can be expected Sunday afternoon, mainly for
areas north of I-4, but erc and wind criteria for a red flag warning
are not expected to be met at this time. Some patchy fog is possible
tonight across southwest Florida, but is not expected otherwise.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 55 76 60 82 / 0 0 0 10
fmy 60 82 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
gif 55 77 59 84 / 0 0 0 20
srq 57 77 61 80 / 0 0 0 10
bkv 49 76 54 83 / 0 0 0 20
spg 58 75 62 81 / 0 0 0 10
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal