Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 230622 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
222 am EDT Tue may 23 2017

may have some brief MVFR ceilings, but VFR will mainly
prevail through the afternoon as south-southwest winds increase in speed
and become gusty. Winds will subside after sunset this
evening, with the rain chances increasing after 00z for the
northern terminals.


Prev discussion... /issued 833 PM EDT Mon may 22 2017/

the West Coast sea breeze moved well inland this afternoon and
eventually collided with the East Coast boundary right across the
center part of the state. Broken shower and thunderstorm activity is
ongoing from Polk County stretching south into Lee County, but
activity has been gradually weakening and will continue to do so over
the next couple of hours, with the rest of the night remaining dry.
The ongoing forecast is in good shape, with no updates needed this

still a chance for some brief shower or thunderstorm activity mainly
at kfmy and krsw, but this threat will be diminishing over the next
couple of hours. VFR conditions can generally be expected otherwise.
Winds will become southerly overnight and into the morning hours, and
then will switch to southwest in the afternoon, with speeds
increasing and gusts of 20-25 knots likely.

the high pressure axis will slowly move south for the next couple of
days, with winds turning to the southwest. Winds will increase near
cautionary levels tonight into Tuesday and then will reach advisory
levels as a cold front approaches the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The front will move through the region Thursday, with high
pressure then moving into the area for the end of the week. Numerous
to widespread showers and thunderstorms, with some strong storms
possible, are anticipated across the waters Tuesday night into
Thursday. Boaters are urged to check the latest forecasts with
respect to these storms.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 77 84 73 81 / 40 80 80 40
fmy 76 88 75 83 / 20 60 80 60
gif 74 86 71 83 / 30 70 80 50
srq 77 84 73 79 / 40 80 80 50
bkv 74 82 69 81 / 50 80 70 30
spg 77 83 72 82 / 40 80 80 40


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations