Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 180039
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
839 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017
scattered thunderstorms continue this evening from southern
Polk into Highlands counties. This activity has decreased
in overall size and intensity over the last hour, and this
trend is expected to continue. A large area of stratiform
rainfall will also continue extending from these storms to
the south and west on the heels of moderate northeast upper
level winds. Lingering showers and storms should dissipate
by midnight with light winds and mild temperatures
The only change to the forecast was to adjust pops to fit
ongoing activity, and reflect expected short term trends.
The associated sky grids also were tweaked to show more
widespread cloud cover with convective debris.
Aviation (00z tafs)...
ongoing storms over the interior peninsula should gradually
diminish by 05z. A stray storm or two may remain in the
vicinity of krsw/kfmy where vcts will be maintained.
Otherwise prevailing VFR is expected much of the period.
Winds will become light and variable overnight, increasing
and shifting to the south and southwest by 18z Fri.
Thereafter, scattered storms will develop over inland areas,
potentially affecting near coastal terminals.
high pressure will remain over the area through the weekend
before lifting northward. This will maintain light east to
southeast winds for the next few days. Early next week, a
tightening pressure gradient may allow for easterly wind
surge activity for a few days. Otherwise, the only marine
concern remains scattered thunderstorms, prompting locally
rougher marine conditions.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 79 92 79 92 / 20 30 20 30
fmy 76 94 76 92 / 30 40 20 40
gif 75 94 76 94 / 70 40 20 30
srq 77 91 78 91 / 20 20 10 20
bkv 75 92 74 94 / 20 40 20 30
spg 80 92 80 92 / 20 20 10 20