Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 192328
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
628 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018
mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs. Some
patchy fog is expected but should stay north of I-4. Winds
will continue to be light out of the east/southeast overnight before
picking back up tomorrow afternoon.
Prev discussion... /issued 251 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018/
Short term (tonight-tuesday)...
surface high pressure centered just offshore of New England
is ridging down across the area, with ridging aloft centered
just to the east of the state. This will keep east/southeast flow in
place across the area with moderate winds strong enough to
prevent sea breeze development Tuesday afternoon. A little
pocket of moisture will lift over the area in the flow
tonight into Tuesday, and may have a stray shower or two
Tuesday afternoon, but left chances at a silent 10 percent.
Patchy fog will again be possible mainly across the Nature
Coast overnight. Temperatures will continue to be warm,
with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.
Long term (tuesday night-monday)...
a series of mid/upper level shortwaves will continue to move
across the central and eastern U.S. Well north of the
region with ridging holding over the Florida Peninsula.
Meanwhile surface high pressure will extend west from the
Atlantic Ocean back across the Florida Peninsula into the
weekend before a cold front moves into the southeast U.S.
And eventually washes out across North Florida early next
week. For our area this pattern will mean a continuation of
the warm temperatures, more typical of late April/early may,
with a few record highs possible. It will remain mainly
dry, but late in the week through the weekend there could be
just enough moisture when combined with daytime heating and
the sea breezes to pop a couple of showers here and there.
Overall though it will remain partly to mostly sunny, warm,
and dry with the only potential problem being some late
night and early morning low clouds and fog.
high pressure will ridge across the waters through the
period, keeping an east/southeast flow across the waters with a weak
sea breeze possible near the coast during the second half of
the week. Some patchy fog will be possible over the northern
coastal waters overnight. No headlines expected through the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 68 85 69 85 / 0 10 10 0
fmy 68 88 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
gif 65 85 67 86 / 10 10 10 0
srq 69 86 69 85 / 10 10 0 0
bkv 62 87 65 86 / 0 10 10 0
spg 70 84 69 84 / 10 10 10 0