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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
256 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Synopsis...
west to northwest flow aloft will continue over the region through
the remainder of the weekend. Precipitation is not expected and
areas of smoke and haze from area wildfires will persist.
Temperatures will warm back above seasonal averages on Sunday. Dry
conditions and very warm to hot temperatures will continue to
affect the region through at least mid-week.

&&

Discussion...

Tonight through Monday...surface front brought higher humidity
and cooler temperatures to the northern half of the County Warning Area today.
This feature is expected to continue moving southward this evening
with slightly cooler temperatures possible in southwest Montana on
Sunday. However, models are in good agreement that temperatures
across north central and central Montana will rebound back toward
seasonal averages. Dry west to northwest flow aloft continues
across the region on Monday with temperatures remaining near or
above seasonal averages. Winds are expected to remain generally
light over the next few days so fire weather concerns are not
anticipated. Mpj

Monday night through Saturday...a high pressure ridge aloft will
traverse the County Warning Area from west to east Monday night through
Wednesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and primarily dry
weather. Somewhat cooler temperatures, along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, remain possible next week Thursday and
Friday due to an upper-level trough digging southward and
eastward from British Columbia. Drier conditions and slightly
warmer temperatures may return by Saturday of next weekend, as
another high pressure ridge aloft builds-in from the south and
west. Low and high temperatures are still expected to be near or
slightly above-normal during the period. The warmest readings
will likely occur Tuesday and Wednesday, when the first of the
two aforementioned high pressure ridges is overhead.
Jaszka

&&

Aviation...
updated 1745z.

Smoky and hazy conditions persist across parts of central and
southwestern Montana this morning. These conditions are due to a
westerly flow aloft blowing smoke from neighboring wildfires in
western Montana. Expect some impacts to visibility for bzn and eks
through the afternoon and evening hours, with periods of MVFR
possible before clearing up by tonight. Otherwise, a cold front has
dropped south across central Montana this morning, causing a wind
shift from the north. This will help slightly with clearing out some
smoke, however a continued westerly flow aloft above this shallow
wind shift/surface front may keep light smoky conditions for gtf and
hln terminals. Because of this, expected visibility will not be as
limited as yesterday. However, hazy conditions may lead to distant
mountain/Ridgetop obscuration through the evening hours. Northern
Montana will reside in a Post-frontal environment with winds
primarily out of the north. Only exception will be in ctb where wind
directions ranging 020-080 may cause upslope mid to low-level clouds
periodically through the afternoon. Klg

&&

Fire weather...

Red flag warnings remain in effect for portions of the forecast
area until 9 PM MDT this evening for low relative humidity and gusty winds.
Additional fire weather highlights are not anticipated through
mid-week but still remain possible due to continued very warm, dry
and potentially breezy conditions. Next widespread fire weather
event is expected around Thursday as the upper ridge collapses and
a surface cold front spreads gusty winds and scattered dry
thunderstorms across western and central Montana. Mpj

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 49 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
ctb 45 77 45 80 / 10 0 0 0
hln 52 83 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
bzn 48 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
wey 37 76 38 76 / 10 0 0 10
dln 46 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
hvr 49 81 50 83 / 10 0 0 0
lwt 49 79 50 80 / 10 0 0 10

&&

Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening deerlodge/western
Beaverhead National Forest...eastern Beaverhead National
Forest...Lincoln Ranger district of the Helena National Forest.

&&

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