Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
540 am CST Wed Dec 7 2016
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
A few radar echos starting to show up from kinx, however precip is
falling through a very dry air-mass and will likely take much of the
morning for low levels to saturate. Scattered areas of light snow
and/or freezing drizzle will be possible behind strong cold front
this afternoon into the evening hours across NE OK/northwest Arkansas. Given
precip activity is expected to remain light did not include any
reduced visibilities at this time. Clouds will likely clear from
north to south this evening into the overnight hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CST Wed Dec 7 2016/
much colder air on the way later today, with the leading edge near
Kansas/Nebraska border early this morning. South of the front,
shallow low level moisture beginning to surge north into southeast
OK as indicated by low stratus. Continued moistening of lowest
layer may result in patchy light drizzle expanding north this
morning before attention turns to the possibility of winter
weather later today through this evening.
Lift will be provided by weak shortwave embedded in westerlies,
currently is moving across Colorado. Also, a narrow frontogenetic
band will likely develop near Kansas/MO borders later today as deeper
cold air surges south. Major limiting factor in potential for
accumulating snow is depth of quality moisture, as what moisture
exists remains mostly beneath the dendritic growth layer. At most
would expect a brief period of very light snow which could lead to
some very light accumulations over parts of northeast OK and
northwest AR, but precip could well be limited to flurries or
freezing drizzle in many areas. Any precip should move east of the
area after midnight with temperatures falling into the teens in
northern areas by morning, with wind chill readings in the single
digits making for a cold start Thursday. After a cold day Thursday
with some areas struggling to reach lower 30s, temps will bottom
out Friday morning as surface high pressure settles in.
Quick moderation in temps will occur by the weekend with strong
and gusty south winds Saturday ahead of next approaching system.
This will bring some chance of precipitation Saturday night and
Sunday, with thermal profiles indicating all liquid by that time.
Strong upper low developing in southern Canada next week continues
to be shown by medium range models, a pattern which could result
in an even stronger surge of cold air sometime next week.