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fxus64 ktsa 262317 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions to start the forecast period will deteriorate
through the evening as low level moisture increases from the
south. Most locations will see MVFR ceilings develop after 06z
with some IFR visibility possible across northwest Arkansas. No significant
improvement in ceilings is anticipated through 00z Tuesday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017/

Discussion...
a warm front is developing south of the Red River with increasing
warm air advection. In addition...a shortwave trough is crossing
the Desert Southwest...and this may provide some support for
showers and isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening
across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A few storms are
already developing across southwest Arkansas.

Will add some fog mention in northwest Arkansas...as that area has
remained under clouds all day and some locations received some
light rain this morning. With increasing dewpoints
overnight...low clouds will develop along with patchy fog.

Upper flow becomes increasingly southwest on Monday ahead of a
positive tilt upper trough now moving south along the West Coast.
At the surface...a warm front will lift north across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Monday night with low end chances
for showers or isolated thunder. The better chance for
thunderstorms may be Monday evening across Arkansas with
increasing elevated instability.

Tuesday will bring a chance for showers and storms...some of which
could become severe. There is a more conditional threat on Tuesday
afternoon...based on cap strength and ability to lift a parcel to
its level of free convection. Surface cold front will move through northeast Oklahoma
late Tuesday into early Wed morning with scattered
showers/thunderstorms and severe wind gusts possible along the
convective line.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend...with most areas
remaining above freezing tonight...and 60s/70s for Monday and
Tuesday. Raised Tue morning lows a few degrees based on expected warm
frontal position and latest guidance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 40 66 55 78 / 10 20 10 10
fsm 42 67 53 77 / 50 30 10 30
mlc 43 69 58 78 / 20 30 10 20
bvo 32 65 48 78 / 10 20 10 10
fyv 36 64 53 75 / 20 20 10 30
byv 38 61 53 74 / 30 20 20 30
mko 43 68 54 76 / 10 20 10 20
Mio 36 65 53 76 / 10 20 10 20
f10 45 67 55 78 / 10 20 10 10
hhw 50 68 58 78 / 50 30 10 30

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

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