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fxus64 ktsa 172252 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions continue with increasing southerly winds tomorrow.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

Discussion...

The main forecast challenges today will be temperatures the next
several days and rain/thunder chances/timing this weekend.

The snowpack across far NE OK and northwest Arkansas continues to shrink, and
should be mostly gone by tomorrow. Will adjust overnight lows
tonight and highs tomorrow slightly to account for remaining
cover.

A pattern change toward a lower amplitude and more progressive
regime is underway today. The deep upper trough that brought our
most recent Arctic plunge is lifting out to the Northeast. Heights
are falling along the pac northwest coast as a system approaches. A
northward shift in the jet, as western Continental U.S. Troughing develops,
will allow temps to modify rather quickly as this week wears on.
There is still uncertainty as to how fast temps warm up, as is
evidenced by the spread in guidance. Have elected to stay closer
to middle ground for the forecast. Nevertheless, temps should
climb well above normal by the end of the week.

The next system to affect the plains will arrive Sunday. There are
still timing differences between the faster GFS and slower ec.
Have elected to keep pops more in The Middle Ground for now until
this can be resolved. Still looks like an axis of weak instability
will work its way up into the region ahead of the associated
Pacific front. Isolated storm mention will be maintained.

Another period of quiet weather is expected in the wake of the
Sunday system. Since airmass behind the front is more of a Pacific
origin, temps into early next week should be generally near or
slightly above average.

Lacy

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 18 46 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 14 45 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 14 44 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 9 46 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 10 42 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
byv 15 43 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
mko 10 44 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 12 40 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
f10 18 46 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 15 43 25 53 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

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