Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 191131
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 am CST sun Nov 19 2017
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Light sfc winds with a stronger northerly component just off
the surface will prompt a ws remark at all sites through 16z.
Otherwise, VFR taf elements will prevail through the period at all
Previous discussion... /issued 253 am CST sun Nov 19 2017/
nice Fall weather on tap for today as surface high pressure moves over
the region with light winds/sunny skies. Surface high will shift east
tonight with gusty southwest winds developing on Monday. The fire danger
threat will begin to increase Monday afternoon, especially across northeast
Oklahoma as relative humidity values fall to around 30 percent with gusty southwest
winds in the 30-35 mph range. Most of the area has seen little to no
rainfall over the past couple of weeks and with cured vegetation,
any fires that develop could quickly spread out of control.
Another dry cold front will move through the region on Tuesday with
cool conditions on Wednesday behind front. A quick warm up is expected
Thursday and especially Friday with highs back into the upper 60s over
much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday afternoon. Northwest
flow aloft will persist into next weekend with another cold front expected
around Saturday. Forecast will remain dry for the foreseeable future
with no significant chance for rainfall for the next 7-10 days. Fire
weather will likely remain a concern as fuels continue to dry out.