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fxus64 ktsa 210834 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
334 am CDT Mon may 21 2018

Discussion...
it is much quieter tonight than last night at this time, with a
few thunderstorms now east of the area in central Arkansas. Areas of
stratus or fog have formed due to the trapped boundary layer
moisture and light flow. Clouds should scatter out by mid morning
across eastern OK, but may linger til mid day across western Arkansas.

Boundary is now south and east, so there is little forcing for
showers or storms today. However, will hang on to the low pops in
far southeast OK, where there could be some afternoon convection
in the favorable terrain, mainly across far southeast OK into
west central Arkansas.

Jet energy will round the base of the upper trough in the west
through Tuesday with low chances for afternoon storms from
McAlester to Fort Smith and areas south on Tuesday. The dryline
becomes better established by Wednesday afternoon with a Lee
trough strengthening the southerly flow over Oklahoma. Storms
should develop over the southern High Plains on Wednesday
afternoon, as a weak shortwave trough embedded within the
southwest flow, moves east. Increasing isentropic lift may bring
isolated showers and thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma by Wed
afternoon. The stronger storms should remain well west across the
Texas Panhandle and western OK.

The rest of the week looks hot with building ridge across the mid
portion of the country. It still looks like showers and
thunderstorms are possible for the start of the long Holiday
weekend, as a cold front moves through the region on Saturday.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 83 64 88 68 / 10 0 10 0
fsm 85 65 88 68 / 10 0 20 0
mlc 84 63 87 66 / 10 0 20 0
bvo 82 60 87 63 / 10 0 10 0
fyv 82 63 85 62 / 10 0 20 0
byv 82 61 86 63 / 10 0 20 0
mko 83 64 87 65 / 10 0 10 0
Mio 81 62 86 65 / 10 0 10 0
f10 83 63 87 66 / 10 0 10 0
hhw 84 66 87 68 / 20 0 20 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

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