Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 23 2016
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southerly
winds will gust to near 20 knots at times during the day
Previous discussion... /issued 917 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 23 2016/
this evening a surface boundary was positioned from the Oklahoma
Texas panhandles back into eastern New Mexico...while a cold front
slowly drifted southeast through western Kansas and central
Nebraska. Scattered convection had developed along these
boundaries this afternoon moving east northeast...and were located
over the Texas Panhandle to western Oklahoma and across northern
Kansas to eastern Nebraska. To the east and south of the
convection...over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...mostly
clear to mostly cloudy skies were observed from south to north.
Overnight tonight...the convection out west of the County Warning Area should
continue to weaken with the loss of daytime heating...while the
convection to the north of the County Warning Area remains possible along/near the
front and near an upper level impulse moving through the plains.
Thus...in response to all of this...will continue to carry slight
chance pops for mainly Osage/Pawnee counties for the chance of any
showers or storms in western Oklahoma reach this far east. The
convection to the north should remain to the north of the County Warning Area.
Cloud cover should also continue to move across northeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas as the cloud debris from the convection
out west pushes northeast with the upper level southwesterly flow.
These conditions should help to keep temps warmer across the
northern part of the County Warning Area...though lows in the low to mid 70s look
to be common for most locations over the County Warning Area. Evening update was
to add minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids.
Otherwise current forecast seem to be on track at this time.