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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
313 PM CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016

Discussion...
expansive upper cyclone continues to wobble across the Ohio Valley
with a surface ridge poking through the plains. The result has
been a pleasantly cool day...with low dewpoints and only a few
weak cu in the cyclonic flow aloft. The upper system is expected
to remain quasi-stationary over the next 24-36 hours before
finally kicking north then east as the next system approaches the
West Coast.

We'll see another cool start to the day on Friday...with lows in
the 40s/low 50s. Expect a modest warming trend through the
remainder of the weekend...although dewpoints will remain low.

The aforementioned upper system will move onshore Sunday and
advance into The Rockies by Tuesday. Extended models continue to
differ in how much southern stream energy will eject
east...although latest GFS is coming around to the farther north
and more progressive solution of the European model (ecmwf). Low-level moisture
will be on the increase by Tuesday and expect scattered convection
to move through the region later Tuesday night into Wednesday
before shifting east Wednesday evening.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 49 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 52 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 49 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 45 74 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 45 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
byv 51 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
mko 49 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 47 73 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
f10 50 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 52 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...11
long term....18

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