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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
337 am CDT sun Oct 22 2017

Discussion...

The main forecast issues this morning will be the see-sawing temps
this week with multiple fropas expected and rain chances with the
late week front.

Cold front has cleared east of the forecast area early this
morning. All that is left is the stratiform precip shield in the
wake of the linear mesoscale convective system which has now moved into the arklatex. Will
try to time where the back edge of the precip will be at 12z.
Clearing skies behind the Pacific front will yield a very nice day
ahead for the region. Expect a warmer day on Monday ahead of
another reinforcing cold front, arriving late Monday and Monday
night. Temps will drop back below average on Tuesday behind this
front. Yet another quick warm-up back above average is expected
thru Thursday ahead of another cold front.

The late week cold front will be of the polar variety, a result
of what will be a highly amplified upper flow pattern over the
Continental U.S. Late this week. The models dig a very deep trough over the
central part of the country during this time, downstream from
ridging that noses well up into western Canada and the northwest
territory. This cold front will likely bring the coolest air of
the season thus far into our area Friday, as well as a chance for
showers and maybe a few storms. Moisture return ahead of this
boundary will not be near what it was with today's front. Our
first frost/freeze headlines could come about a week from now.

What is not as clear is evolution of the upper trough and its
effect on our sensible weather going into the weekend. The European model (ecmwf)
continues to dig energy farther west than the Canadian and GFS,
though the GFS has trended a bit more toward the European model (ecmwf) compared to
last night at this time. As a result, the European model (ecmwf) keeps
qg/frontogenetic lift over our area longer behind the front and
is wetter on Saturday than the Canadian and GFS. In fact, if the
European model (ecmwf) is right a wintry mix could fall over central/western parts
of Kansas/OK on Saturday. For now, have elected to maintain 20-30 pops
over the region longer than the consensus guidance, Friday night
into Saturday, out of respect for the European model (ecmwf) solution.

Lacy

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 72 45 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 70 44 78 47 / 40 0 0 0
mlc 71 44 78 47 / 10 0 0 0
bvo 73 39 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 64 38 72 42 / 50 0 0 0
byv 63 41 73 45 / 60 0 0 0
mko 69 44 77 45 / 20 0 0 0
Mio 68 43 74 44 / 10 0 0 0
f10 70 45 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 73 45 79 48 / 20 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.

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