Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ktsa 282026 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
326 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Discussion...
warm and humid conditions continue through tomorrow with
convection focused on the slow moving cold front which will sag
further south across the Central Plains on Thursday. Bulk of
Thursday night convection is expected to remain north of the
region however scattered storms may spread into portion of NE OK
by early Friday morning.

The evolution of convection on Friday is uncertain however a
generally uptick in coverage and intensity is expected by Friday
afternoon focused largely along the composite synoptic front and
any remnant outflow boundaries. Prefrontal conditions by early
afternoon will become increasingly unstable beneath 20-30kts of
deep layer shear. This will support severe weather potential
persisting from Friday afternoon through the late evening hours.
There is also indications that convection may be sustained into
the overnight hours nearer the elevated frontal zone which could
lead to local areas of heavy rainfall by Saturday morning.

The sfc pattern will become increasingly muddled by extensive
convection though an expected trend is for the heaviest
convection to focus southward by Saturday afternoon. Lesser
coverage of precip is likely for late in the weekend before a
possible uptick in precip chances early next week pending the
timing and evolution of the next passing trough.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 75 93 74 89 / 0 0 20 60
fsm 72 93 75 93 / 0 10 10 60
mlc 73 91 75 92 / 0 0 10 40
bvo 72 93 71 86 / 0 0 30 50
fyv 69 89 70 87 / 0 0 10 70
byv 69 88 70 86 / 0 0 10 70
mko 72 90 73 91 / 0 0 10 60
Mio 72 91 71 86 / 0 0 30 70
f10 73 92 74 92 / 0 0 10 60
hhw 71 89 74 93 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations