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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
312 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

both fire weather and severe thunderstorm concerns will exist
tomorrow in response to a strong upper level low pressure system
and associated dryline that will move through the region

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect parts of eastern
Oklahoma toward sunrise tomorrow and continue into the morning
hours, well ahead of the dryline due to a very strong low level
jet. Additional and more widespread thunderstorms are most likely
to develop across portions of southeast Oklahoma and into western
Arkansas midday and into the afternoon hours along the dryline.
Instability should not be high enough to support a significant
large hail threat with the dryline thunderstorms, but wind fields
will support a damaging wind threat. Heavy rain potential will
exist as well. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible
beneath the upper low itself, primarily across northeast Oklahoma
and into northwest Arkansas, from Friday evening into Saturday
morning. Cold temperatures aloft, associated with the upper low
center, will support a greater large hail threat than with the
earlier dryline storms.

The dryline will pass through parts of eastern Oklahoma early
enough to allow critical fire weather conditions to develop during
the early to mid afternoon hours, especially west of Highway 75. A
Fire Weather Watch will be issued for this area, as relative
humidities are expected to drop below 25 percent and wind gusts
near 40 mph following the dryline passage. This area is also most
likely to not see much in the way of rainfall with this system. It
is possible that these conditions may extend farther east, but
the watch has been issued for the highest confidence area.

A lull in the activity should occur Saturday night and into most
of Sunday. Fire weather concerns will increase once again Sunday
ahead of the next storm system as southerly wind gusts near 30 mph
increase the fire spread potential, especially across parts of
eastern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will increase ahead of the dryline
during the late afternoon Sunday and into the overnight hours.
Instability appears to be great enough to support a large hail and
damaging wind threat with this batch of thunderstorms. Overall,
Sunday appears to feature the highest severe potential of the

Another storm system will move through the plains toward the
middle of next week, with another round of showers and
thunderstorms expected. Mid range models continue to struggle with
this system, and as such, the forecast will remain very close to
the blended guidance.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 62 79 51 66 / 20 40 30 20
fsm 59 72 53 67 / 10 90 40 20
mlc 64 77 52 69 / 20 80 10 10
bvo 62 78 50 65 / 20 30 40 20
fyv 59 68 51 61 / 10 90 60 40
byv 60 69 51 60 / 10 90 70 40
mko 62 72 53 66 / 10 80 30 20
Mio 61 71 51 60 / 10 80 50 40
f10 63 79 51 67 / 20 60 20 10
hhw 62 73 52 71 / 20 80 10 0


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for okz054-059-064-065.


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