Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 241547
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1047 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
pressure falls across Central Plains this morning with increasing
in south winds over northeast OK. Based on current conditions have
increased wind speeds a little, mainly in areas along/north of
I-44. Otherwise going forecast looks good.
Previous discussion... /issued 545 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Gusty south winds will develop today over most areas and continue
across northeast Oklahoma tonight in advance of approaching wave.
Lower cloud development will likely hold off until Tuesday
morning, currently outside the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 402 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/
it will be noticeably windier today as surface ridge axis moves
east, and a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Upper storm system
will approach the area by Tuesday, with a 100+kt jet streak
digging a long wave trough across the west. This will induce
surface pressure falls in the plains, making for an even windier
day Tuesday. Cold front will move across Kansas and western
Oklahoma during the day Tuesday, while moisture streams north.
Airmass will become moderately unstable Tuesday afternoon but
remain capped until late in the day.
Expect storms to eventually develop along the front, with Post-
frontal storms possible as well. With the strong shear and
instability that will be present, storms will likely become severe
early on with a threat for large hail with a continuing threat
for damaging wind and hail through the overnight hours on
Extended models continue to suggest the cold front does not clear
the area by Wednesday morning, but rather, bisect the area. This
will make the temperature forecast quite variable on Wed,
depending on frontal position and associated precipitation.
Temperatures on Wed look cool, with the possibility of widespread
rain behind the front. There will also be the continued potential
for severe weather Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front across far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
There may be a brief break in the stormy pattern Wed night/Thu
for portions of the area, but elevated storms may form Thursday
night north of the warm front. Upper flow becomes southwesterly by
Friday which will be a favorable set up for episodes of severe
weather and heavy rain given the strong flow/moisture that will be
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 78 59 82 55 / 0 0 10 60
fsm 80 56 85 65 / 0 0 0 50
mlc 79 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 50
bvo 78 56 82 52 / 0 0 10 70
fyv 75 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 60
byv 78 53 79 61 / 0 0 0 50
mko 76 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 50
Mio 76 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 70
f10 76 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 50
hhw 77 56 83 66 / 0 0 0 20