Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ktsa 231129 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018


The discussion for the 12z taf forecast can be found below.


concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Convective potential thru this evening will be the main forecast
challenge and aviation impact. Morning elevated convection
currently affecting southeast OK and could possibly move into wc AR, so
tempo groups were included to account for this. Current thinking
is the focus for afternoon storms will stay south and thus
afternoon and evening tempo thunder mention was confined to kmlc
and kfsm with a more conservative vcts mention at kfyv. VFR
conditions will prevail for the bulk of this forecast period at
all sites outside of storm activity.



Previous discussion... /issued 423 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/

extensive mesoscale convective system has pushed an outflow boundary through North Texas while
vwp data at ktlx / kfdr suggest the influence of the modified
airmass is around 2kft deep. Ongoing convection within the warm
advection regime atop the stabilized layer will further delay
modification through the day. Evolution of the morning convection
is uncertain but expectation is that a festering will remain
across the forecast area at least through mid morning and possibly
longer. The focus for afternoon will be the aforementioned outflow
boundary and this forecast will side toward a more southern
placement of the boundary than shown by modeled solution. While
cam solutions offer the best chance of handling the boundary layer
evolution the current aggressive nature of the outflow compared
to short term progs suggest than even the higher resolution models
may be underestimating the outflow depth. Regardless storms are
expected to develop along the eventual boundary location as a
subtle wave passes and acts on a strongly unstable airmass.
Inhibition will remain strong through mid afternoon thus storm
development will be somewhat delayed and expand in coverage
primarily through the evening hours. Given the expected degree of
instability the strongest storms will be capable of significant
severe weather.

A strong wave for late June is expected to quickly reset the sfc
pattern by Sunday afternoon. Widespread storms will develop across
the Western Plains and spread east-NE Sunday afternoon and evening
and quickly become severe. The expanding warm mid level temps
/sampled by 23/00z west and central Texas raobs/ will offer a sharp
southern periphery for stronger storm development and storm
chances will be confined to northern areas per model trends. These
warm temps further expand on Monday with the trailing cold
frontal convection likely struggling to build southward into the
forecast area.

Thereafter upper ridging intensifies across the plains and hot and
humid conditions are expected. Given the recent rainfall the
likelihood of excessive daily dewpoints may well push portions of
the area into heat advisory criteria for mid next week.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 86 73 91 76 / 50 20 10 30
fsm 89 72 93 75 / 60 60 10 10
mlc 90 74 91 77 / 50 60 10 10
bvo 86 69 89 74 / 40 10 20 50
fyv 83 69 87 72 / 40 40 20 10
byv 82 68 89 71 / 40 40 20 10
mko 85 72 90 75 / 60 40 10 10
Mio 84 70 89 75 / 30 10 20 30
f10 86 73 90 75 / 60 40 10 10
hhw 93 75 92 76 / 30 60 10 0


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations