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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
334 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 31 2016

Discussion...
a broken line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across
northeast OK this afternoon...extending from Rogers Through Creek
counties. Storms are currently affecting the Tulsa Metro and
isolated strong wind gusts to 50 mph are possible. This will be
the more focused area of precipitation this afternoon.

A weak synoptic front extends across portions of Kansas into northern
MO...and this will bring some drier air into the region by
Thursday. Model solutions are mixed as to how much precipitation
will occur...but best chances are definitely tonight and early Thu
for NE OK and northwest Arkansas. On Thursday...more storms may develop along
the remnants of the washed-out front...or possibly old outflow
boundary. We have left higher chances for rain across southeast OK and
western Arkansas for tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures will feel more fall-like on Thursday night into the
weekend with morning lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lowered
temps on Saturday morning closer to the cooler guidance
values...as clear skies and light winds should make for good
radiational cooling.

Weekend looks great weather-wise...with more comfortable
temperatures and dry conditions. By Sunday...upper ridge axis
will have moved east...and we will be back into SW flow aloft
ahead of next low pressure system in the Pacific northwest. Heat
and humidity will return beginning Sunday into Monday. In
addition...there will be a slight chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms beginning Tue into Wed.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 70 86 62 85 / 40 20 10 0
fsm 73 87 65 85 / 30 40 10 0
mlc 71 86 65 86 / 30 50 10 0
bvo 67 84 58 84 / 40 20 10 0
fyv 67 83 56 81 / 30 20 10 0
byv 67 81 59 80 / 30 20 10 0
mko 70 84 61 85 / 30 30 10 0
Mio 68 84 58 81 / 30 20 10 0
f10 71 85 65 85 / 30 30 10 0
hhw 72 88 66 87 / 20 50 10 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...20
long term....06

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