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fxus64 ktsa 181124 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 am CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Patchy fog and IFR ceilings will periodically impact a few sites
through mid morning. Additionally light showers and isolated
thunderstorms will spread into NE OK this morning with dissipation
likely by late morning. Thereafter VFR to high MVFR ceilings are
expected into tonight. Storm chances increase across NE OK and far
northwest Arkansas late evening into the early morning hours.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

Discussion...
August continues to remain a forecast challenge, at least through
early next week, as several more rounds of showers and
thunderstorms appear likely. In the short term, several
thunderstorm complexes are traversing the OK/Texas panhandles with
another complex moving across central Kansas early this morning. Hi-
resolution, short-term guidance suggests these storms will weaken
as they travel eastward into a less favorable environment. The
weakened storms will approach the western edge to the County Warning Area over the
next several hours, but are expected to continue to weaken this
morning and attention then turns towards this afternoon and
evening.

A stationary front currently resides from Pawnee County northeastward
to Ottawa County, and then along southern Missouri. Could
possibly see a bit of development along this boundary by early
afternoon as it begins to move northward as a warm front. Another
vigorous wave dropping into the northern plains will force a cold
front south across the plains late today and this evening.
Thunderstorms look to develop along portions of this front by
evening, and will drop south through the evening and overnight
period. Early on, organized severe weather is likely over portions
of Kansas/OK/MO with hail and wind the primary threat. As the evening
progresses, the threat will change over to heavy rain. However,
given differences in model output, it is still difficult to nail
down too many specifics.

Showers and thunderstorms could hang around into Saturday morning,
but overall, Saturday looks to be much quieter. Scattered storms
return Sunday, with limited storm chances continuing into the
upcoming work week. Upper air pattern will become more zonal this
weekend allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s.
Recent heavy rain events and efficient evapotranspiration, in
addition to strong warm air advection, will have heat indices
climbing into the 100 to 105 range this weekend for much of
eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Overall pattern will
remain relatively active with another front approaching the region
tues/Wed.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 91 74 93 75 / 30 40 10 10
fsm 92 74 94 75 / 20 30 20 10
mlc 91 74 95 74 / 20 30 20 10
bvo 91 71 93 71 / 40 40 10 10
fyv 87 71 89 70 / 20 40 20 10
byv 89 71 90 70 / 20 40 20 10
mko 90 73 92 73 / 20 30 20 10
Mio 88 71 92 71 / 30 40 10 10
f10 91 73 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
hhw 91 74 96 74 / 20 30 20 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

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