Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kvef 230258 cca
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
700 PM PST Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis...a building area of high pressure along the West
Coast will provide dry weather and a warming trend the rest of the
week. However, expect periods of north winds at times, especially
within the Colorado River valley.
Update...just sent a minor update, mainly to account for slightly
cooler temperatures tonight near Bishop and parts of the southern
Great Basin with fresh snow cover. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track. Northerly winds will linger this evening but should relax
late tonight in most areas outside of the Colorado River valley.
This should allow for cool morning low temperatures, the coldest
since early in the month, for most of the region.
Discussion...tonight through next Tuesday.
We will see a few additional rounds of breezy to windy conditions,
but no significant weather impacts appear to be on the horizon for
our region the next week or so. A persistent ridge off the West
Coast is forecast to remain in place through at least Sunday which
will allow occasional shortwaves to slide down the front side of the
ridge...leading to periods of enhanced north winds. Winds will
decrease tonight and largely abate Wednesday before kicking up again
Thursday. Speeds will decrease Friday then stir up again Saturday
with a potentially deep wave digging through southern
Nevada/southwest Utah then possibly another one next Monday/Tuesday.
Naturally, there are differences among the models so confidence is
moderate to low with timing and speeds...and even temperatures. The
European model (ecmwf) MOS is keeping more of a limit on high temps than the GFS MOS
and the blended models appear to be leaning more toward the lower
European model (ecmwf) values. The official forecast also reflects this trend, but
that still means temperatures climbing several degrees by Thursday,
then only a few degrees of variation through the weekend.
Aviation...for McCarran...northwest wind 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30
kts expected to continue into the early evening and may even take a
more northeasterly direction at times. However confidence is low in
this occurring. Winds will decrease further in the early evening
with light drainage wind developing overnight into Wednesday
morning. Lighter winds are expected Wednesday. VFR conditions.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...north wind around 25 kts at kifp, keed and khii with
gusts to around 35-40 knots expected into early this evening before
diminishing with wind speeds less than 10 kts. Elsewhere, winds
generally between 15-25 knots. Winds will decrease tonight with
typical drainage winds developing outside of the Colorado River
valley. VFR conditions. Lighter winds expected Wednesday, except
down the Colorado River where north winds will be between 10-20 kts.
Spotter information statement...spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to Standard operating
Short term/long term...Adair