Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 739 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

For the evening update we will mainly adjust the previous weather grids to fit the latest satellite, radar, and lightning density products. At this time, scattered heavy thunderstorms are noted along and off the southeast U.S. Coast from near Cape Hatteras south and southwestward toward northern Florida. This thunderstorm activity is all moving generally off to the east and northeast at this time, and will mainly impact southern into central nt2 waters tonight. WFO coastal offices have issued a few special marine warnings regarding these thunderstorms over the past few hours. We will adjust wording in the ongoing forecast to reflect higher winds in or near any heavier thunderstorms tonight, with winds above gale force possible in heavier thunderstorms. The threat for more thunderstorms will persist Sunday into Tuesday, mainly over nt2 waters, based on the latest sref thunderstorm guidance. Otherwise, no major changes can be expected for the evening update with the 18z GFS and NAM models showing no significant change from their 12z cycles.

Seas...we will adjust sea heights slightly to fit the latest observations and altimeter data over the waters. Locally very rough seas can be found in or near any thunderstorms mainly over southern and central nt2 waters tonight; and over most of the nt2 waters tomorrow into early Tuesday. Overall, no major changes appear needed for the evening update.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

The new 12z models overall remain in reasonably good agreement that the most significant weather feature to affect the waters over the next several days will be a Nor'easter moving off the mid Atlantic coast late Mon/Mon night, then tracking NE across the nt1 waters Tue/Tue night. The 12z models continue to have minor timing and/or track differences in regards to this developing low, but overall they share a similar frontal structure to develop with this system. That is a warm front is forecast to develop off the mid Atlantic coast tonight, drift slowly N across the central/nrn nt2 waters sun through Mon (with strengthening gradients developing, especially the Ely gradient immediately N of the front), then continue NE into the nt1 waters while becoming an occluded front Mon night/Tue. With the models remaining consistent, especially the 12z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF, and to not flip- flop with the previously forecasted gale/storm warnings with this system, plan on continuing to use the previously populated wind grids, which were editted versions of the 00z GFS 10m/first sigma level winds, for tonight through Tue night with additional edits mainly in deference to the 12z GFS/ECMWF. As noted previously, with the 12z GFS forecasting the Ely 925 mb low level jet immediately N of the associated occluded front to Max out (at 60-70 kt) Mon/early Mon night, continue to have a higher confidence level that storm force winds will develop across the far NW nt2 and srn nt1 waters Mon, than across the Gulf of Maine Mon night. But for now, again for the sake of consistency, will make no major changes to the previously forecasted warnings.

Then further out in the long range, the timing differences between the 12z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF have narrowed in regards to a cold front sweeping offshore late Wed night through Thu night. For the forecast gradients associated with this fropa, would favor compromise between the 12z GFS/ECMWF. So plan on populating our wind grids with a 50/50 blend of the 12z GFS (using our smart to place 10m winds in stable areas and first sigma level winds in unstable areas) with the 12z ECMWF boundary layer winds for Wed through Thu night.

.Seas...Since the previously populated winds will be used, will continue to use our previous official wave grids for tonight through Tue night, with some minor additional edits in deference to the similar 12z wavewatch iii/ECMWF wam. Then since a blended 12z GFS/ECMWF solution will become favored, will transition to populating with a 50/50 blend of the 12z wavewatch iii and 12z ECMWF wam models for Wed through Thu night.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...In the strong Ely gradient forecast to develop N of the front Sun night and then shift nwd into Mon night, the 12z estofs continues to forecast a slightly more significant surge (up to 3-4 ft, which may be somewhat too low) to develop nwd up the coast from Delaware to SW New England than forecast by the 12z etss. Would continue to favor the higher estofs solution.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale Monday. Storm possible Monday night. Gale possible Tuesday. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale Monday. Storm possible Monday night. Gale possible Tuesday. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale Monday. Gale possible Monday night into Tuesday. .Anz810...South of New England... gale Sunday night. Storm Monday. Storm possible Monday night. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale Sunday night. Storm Monday. Gale possible Monday night.

.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale Sunday night. Storm Monday. Gale possible Monday night. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Sunday night into Monday. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Monday. Gale possible Monday night. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale Monday. Gale possible Monday night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale Monday. Gale possible Monday night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale Monday. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale Sunday night. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale Sunday night. Gale possible Monday night. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale Sunday night into Monday. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Sunday into Monday. Gale possible Monday night. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Sunday night into Monday. Gale possible Monday night.

$$

.Forecaster Mills/vukits. Ocean prediction center.

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