marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 314 am EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...the 00z NCEP surface analysis shows a 1015 mb low centered near 42n66w, with a cold front arcing se and S from the low, then extending roughly E to W across the nrn nt2 waters as a stationary front. The analysis also shows a strong high pres ridge building W toward the low and cold front, with a fairly strong pres gradient between the low and the ridge. Latest available ascat hi-res and ascat passes from a few hours ago show 20 to 25 kt winds with the cold front, and also in S to SW flow over the srn and central nt2 waters, with 5 to 15 kt winds across the rest of the offshore waters.
Models...the 00z medium range models are in good agreement across the offshore waters for today into early sun, so the representative 00z GFS 10m/30m solution with the stability smart tool will be used for the wind grids over this timeframe. The 00z GFS is faster than the other models with the warm front moving N across the nt1 area Mon into Tue, and also is stronger than most of the models with the S to SW flow ahead of the cold front for Mon through Tue, but this is not a favored scenario given the low level stability considerations. The 00z ECMWF will be used for later sun through the remainder of the forecast period, since it has good support from the 00z UKMET and the latest wpc medium range forecaster guidance.
Seas...the 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ECMWF wam both initialized well over the offshore waters. The models are in good agreement through the forecast period, with only minor differences noted. Will use a 66/33 blend of the 00z ECMWF wam/wna wavewatch for the sea height grids over the entire forecast period, in deference to the 00z ECMWF winds which are preferred for most of the forecast period.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... None.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.