marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 318 am EDT Fri may 25 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Current conditions...the 00z NCEP surface analysis shows a dissipating cold front roughly E to W across the northern nt2 waters, with a second cold front extending E to W over the outer southern nt2 waters then becoming a stationary front across the inner southern waters into the Cape Fear region. Otherwise, the analysis shows high pressure ridging over the offshore waters. Latest available ascat and ascat hi-res passes from a few hours ago show 5 to 15 kt winds over the offshore waters, except for 15 to 25 kt winds in S flow near the New England coast N of Cape Cod.
Models/forecast...the 00z medium range models are in good agreement across the offshore waters for today through Sat night, so the representative 00z GFS 10m solution will be used for the wind grids through Sat night. The 00z GFS is trending faster than the other models after Sat night, while the 00z ECMWF looks closest to the latest wpc medium range forecaster guidance positions for a tropical suspect area (90l) expected to track N across the Gulf of Mexico Sat night into Mon night, and also seems to match up best intensity-wise with the NHC graphic showing a gale force low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours. So will use the 00z ECMWF for sun through the rest of the forecast period.
Seas...the 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ECMWF wam both initialized well over the coastal and offshore waters. Will use the 00z wna wavewatch for the sea height grids for today through Sat night, in order to maintain consistency. Then will go with the 00z ECMWF wam for sun through the rest of the forecast period, to be consistent with the preferred 00z ECMWF wind grids.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... None.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.