Marine Weather for HS 102


marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 729 PM PDT Wed Aug 31 2016

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

The latest model guidance indicates that high pres centered W of the pz6 waters continues to combine with inland low pres over srn California to produce NW winds up to 30 kt off the coast of srn California with the highest conditions W of Point Conception. The strongest conditions will shift N to off the coast of nrn California by Fri with the highest conditions of 30 kt W of Point Reyes. These conditions will then remain in place through Mon. Farther weak area of low pres will move se across the Washington waters Thu night and early Fri with winds up to 25 kt...followed by another weak low moving across the nrn pz5 waters by Mon. For wind grids will continue to use the GFS 10m winds throughout. Current forecast looks reasonable and will continue to carry no warnings across the offshore waters during the forecast period.

The nww3 looks reasonable with the seas and will be followed fairly closely during the forecast period.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

The ascat pass from 17z shows winds 15 to 25 kt along the central and srn CA CST...while generally 10-20 kt occur elsewhere. Seas are running 5-9 ft over much of area. Buoy 46005 rpt 9 ft at 20z. Max seas are also nr 9 ft ovr the sern CA waters...S of pt Conception. The overall fcst philosophy hasnt changed much in the past few days. The pattern will remain progressive across the WA and or waters as a series of weak frontal features cross the area during the upcoming week...followed by weak high areas of high pres. Further S...the pattern across much of the CA waters will continue very stable throughout the 7 day period as as persistant trof remains along the California CST...remaining the Focal Point for higher winds. High pres will remain centered W of hte waters...but occasion ridge axis will poke their way into the region...expecially in the traditional favored place across the NW portion. The strongest winds during the upcoming week will occcur in the coastal zones with gale gusts possible...but 30 kt are definite in localized areas. Will attempt to keep Max winds to 25 kt across the offshore waters...with strongest winds occuring ovr the inner zones.

The 12z global models are in pretty good agreement through the first few days...then differ slightly later in the weeek...mainly in the nrn waters where the speed of the frontal bndries differ among the models. Will continuie continuity and pop the wind grids using the 10m GFS throughout the period...with some modifications to keep winds to 25 kt.

Seas...both wam and enp initialized well across the region and are reasonable throughout. Will pop wave grids using the enp for the 7 day period.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.


.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.

.Pz6 California waters... None.


.Forecaster nolt/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.

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