Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 743 am PST sun Feb 25 2018

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

At 12z a cold front was located across the central pz5 waters with a high pressure ridge over the rest of the pz5 and pz6 waters. A 1021 mb low was located just off of Southern California, with its trough extending northwestward along the central and northern California coast. Upon viewing the 06z GFS/NAM, their runs are in good agreement with the prior 00z model cycle which itself was in agreement through most of the forecast period. With that noted feel no reason to make adjustments to the ongoing grids in this intermediate forecast update. Current warning headlines in place will continue as is for now. See previous discussion for additional information.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

06z NCEP surface analysis shows a cold front entering the pz5 waters from the NW while a weak ridge extends SW from southwestern Oregon. Surface observations and ascat show NW gales behind the front and possible storm force NW Gulf of Alaska. To the S the ridge extends into the central pz6 waters from high pressure centered well W of the area while a coastal trough has re-formed along the central and Southern California coast, and is pressing against the ridge more. A swath of NW winds 25 to 30 kt has expanded along the California coast S of 40n and W of Channel Islands in response, as indicated by 0435z and 0530z ascat passes.

With the 00z global models and NAM in agreement over most of the period will populate the wind grids with the representative 00z GFS and taking into account unstable conditions especially behind passing cold fronts, modified the GFS 10 meter winds using a smart tool that places the higher first sigma level winds in unstable areas and 10 meter winds in stable areas. This is done through Tue. Result is not much change in warning headlines in the near time as a period of gales are expected over parts of the northern pz5 waters today as low pressure over se Alaska slides into western Canada with enhanced winds in the northwest flow in the western semicircle of the low. Continue to anticipate gales over parts of the northern and central pz6 waters later Monday into early Tuesday as low pressure strengthens over the southwest U.S. While interacting with broad high pressure over the eastern North Pacific. Toned down the stronger GFS by blending with 33 percent 00z ECMWF. By Wed and into early Thu models are indicating a significant upper trough digging S over or just west of the northern offshore waters with models to varying degrees developing low pressure over the pz5 waters. Noting the differences in the 00z models, decided to use the 00z CMC global Gem for the winds from Tue night into early Thu as it appears to be the best compromise in terms of location and intensity, and maintains gales over parts of the pz5 waters, strongest near the low. Then later Thu and Thu night reverted back to the 00z GFS which is in line with wpc medium range guidance, calling for low to stall over the pz5 waters and to maintain continuity for now made minor edits to keep northerly gales in the west semicircle of the low just west of the waters.

.Seas...Favored 00z ww3 through Tue, then a 2:1 blend with the 00z ECMWF wam Tue night into Thu, and transitioning to an even blend Thu and Thu night.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale today. Gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Wednesday.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Monday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale Monday night. Gale possible Tuesday. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale Monday night. Gale possible Tuesday. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale Monday night. Gale possible Tuesday. .Pzz835...Inner waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale Monday night. Gale possible Tuesday. .Pzz935...Outer waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Tuesday.

$$

.Forecaster Holley/Bancroft. Ocean prediction center.

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