Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 122 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Afternoon grids: 12z GFS/wwiii into late Thu night, then will transition winds and significant wave heights to non-NCEP 12z ECMWF thereafter. Discussion follows.

1010 mb low pressure centered across The Channel islands continues to move east this afternoon, and attendant cold front remains draped across the far srn California waters. Metop-a ascat overpass from 17z returned highest winds to 25 kt south of the front, and overall these satellite sensed wind retrievals match nearly identical to 12z GFS output. Afternoon guidance suggests the low will move inland early this afternoon, finally pulling the cold front south of the opc aor by 12z late tonight.

Relatively quiet weather expected for most of the waters as high pressure builds to the coast tonight into Tue, persists into Thu, then shifts south over the srn waters through Sat night. A cold front will approach the northern waters Thu, move across the Washington and Oregon waters Thu night and Fri, and into the central California waters Fri night through Sat night. All global models are in fairly good agreement with the intensity and timing of this frontal boundary, with winds expected to remain below Gale Warning threshold. Opc deference to the ECMWF/non-NCEP in the longer range for a few reasons: GFS has been wildly erratic over the past 3 cycles, either having a diffuse frontal boundary, a sub 990 storm force low, or a 1023 mb high over Cape Mendocino. 12z GFS only model solution that strengthens the front as it moves into the central waters, with winds just below gale force. And maybe most importantly, the 12z GFS (similar to 06z) remain on its own island, with no support from gefs mean, eps mean, or any other global models.

Seas: residual swell has been stubborn to subside through the day, but based on latest sea state analysis, buoy and ship obs are now within a foot or two of guidance, with most glaring discrepancies within the coastal zones. Will continue with wwiii into late Thu, then transition grids to the wam where ECMWF is preferred.

Extratropical storm surge guidance: N/A

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.

.Pz6 California waters... None.

$$

.Forecaster Collins. Ocean prediction center.

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