Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1258 am PST Tue Dec 6 2016

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

The most recent scatterometer pass indicates that the winds have decreased below gale across the Washington and Oregon waters at 06z. The strongest winds are 30 kt and are occuring along the border of the Washington and Oregon waters. Further south across the California waters the maximum winds are shown as 25 kt west of Point Reyes across the inner offshore waters. The next large system that will effect the region is currently well west of the California waters and will track northeast over the next 48 hrs and intensify as it approaches the Washington and Oregon waters. The forecast will become very challenging after 48 hours as all of the global models offer widely different solutions. I tossed out the 00z ECMWF as it is by far the weakest solution as the low approaches the waters and keeps the system suppressed. Both the UKMET and the GFS strengthen the system to near 980 mb by 72 hours...although the UKMET keeps the low well west of the offshore waters...while the GFS is much more progressive and brings storm condtions into the Washington waters. The trend of the models is slightly further south than the previous model runs. I will populate the wind grids using the GFS in order to maintain as much continuity as possible from the prior forecast. I am unable to use the ECMWF if I want to maintain any consistancy.

Seas...both the enp and wam initialized OK across the region. I will pop the wave grids using the enp through 15z Thursday...then transition to a blend of 66 percent enp and 33 percent wam in order to tamp down the seas a bit and keep them reasonable.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Wednesday night. Storm possible Thursday into Thursday night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Wednesday night. Storm possible Thursday into Thursday night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Wednesday night. Storm possible Thursday into Thursday night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Wednesday night. Storm possible Thursday into Thursday night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday into Thursday night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Wednesday into Wednesday night. Storm possible Thursday. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday into Thursday night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Wednesday into Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday into Thursday night.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Wednesday into Wednesday night. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Wednesday.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean prediction center.

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