Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 714 am PST Mon Jan 16 2017

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

The satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over the northwest waters. The lightning density map has little to no lightning strikes over the region including the cloudy areas. The satellite picture also depicts anticyclonic circulation across the southern waters. The latest observations including earlier scatterometer passes show higher winds over the north waters at 25 kt. At 1200z the NCEP map has low pressre 964 mb in the Gulf of AK that has an occludded front stretching southeast to just north of the region then warm front continues southeast into the northeast part of the WA waters while the cold front continues southwest and passes just northwest of the WA waters before linking with another warm front that stretches from low pressure 988 mb near 42n145w. High pressure 1028 mb to the west of the southern waters has its ridge extending northeast into the central waters. Inland trough stretches near the coast from southern CA into the cental CA. The pressure gradient is just tight over the far north waters but remains very relaxed elsewhere over the forecast waters. The seas range between 6 and 9 ft over the forecast region with peak seas at 10 ft over the northwest. Nww3 wave model fits very well with he observed seas pattern and is in good agreement with the ecmwfwave model thuough most of the forecast period.

The models GFS/NAM/CMC/ukmethr/ecmwfhr/NOGAPS have initialized fairly well with the 12z observations. The models are also in good agreement in the short term on keeping the high pressure nearly stationary to the west of the southern waters and allowing low pressure to move northeast and pass just northwest of the WA waters. Will not make major changes to the previous forcast and will stay with GFS. In the short term prees gradient over the nroth waters will continue to tighten and allow winds to incease to gale force strength but the southern half will remain with a relaxed pressure gradient.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

The most recent altimeter passes indicate seas seas to 23 feet west of the Washington waters at 02z. Buoy 46184 nr 54n139w reported 23 ft at 06z. The ascat pass from 06z shows gale winds along the northern coast of vancounver...while a ridge axis is is indicated NE-SW across the Oregon waters. The epac will remain very progessive during the upcoming week and the forecast will be a difficult one to say the least. The timing of the individual features will very challenging as well. It seems as if both the northern and southern streams will get in on the action this week. All of the 00z global models indidate such a progressive pattern...and considering the stormy nature ahead...ive seen worse model agreement. Will aim to keep as much continuity as possible from prior forecast as not to jump back and forth...therefor will populate the wind grids with the GFS through 12z thurs...then given the high uncertainty therafter will maintain the official grids for the remainder of the period...except for sun where I will fill in the missing grids using the ECMWF.

Seas...both the wam and enp initializsed well acros the epac. I will populate the wave grids through 12z Thu using a 50/50 blend of the wam/enp...the use the official grids therafter...except for Sunday where I use the wam.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...The 00z estofs indicates a +1 to 1.5 ft surge along the nrn Washington coast on Wed and again on Fri as strong low pres generates SW winds in the ern Pacific. The guidance seems somewhat reasonable, but may be a little high if the coastal jet does not increase as the GFS indicates.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight into Tuesday. Gale possible Wednesday. Gale possible Friday into Friday night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale today. Gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday night. Gale possible Friday into Friday night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight into Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight into Tuesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Tuesday into Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday. Gale possible Thursday night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Tuesday into Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Tuesday into Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday. Gale possible Thursday night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Tuesday into Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday night.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday. Gale possible Thursday night. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Tuesday into Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. .Pzz925...Outer waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Wednesday. Gale possible Friday into Friday night. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Wednesday night. Gale possible Friday. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday night. .Pzz835...Inner waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Wednesday night. .Pzz935...Outer waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Wednesday night. .Pzz840...Inner waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA... gale possible Friday night.

$$

.Forecaster musonda/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.

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