marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1221 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2017
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Low pres was W of the WA/OR waters early this afternoon with strengthening and will move N tonight. Latest 12z model guidance UKMET/Gem/ECMWF models continue to be stronger than the GFS. The 12z GFS was several mbs deeper with the low pressure at 12z than was the case with the 06z guidance. It has also trended stronger with the winds compared to the 06z model guidance. Plan to favor the 12z ECMWF with the low pressure tracking N of Vancouver Island later tonight. After tonight an area of high pressure will develop across the nrn and central offshore waters and persist through Wed night and then give way to a cold front that moves into the nrn areas late Wed night and Thu. The cold front moves into the nrn CA waters late Thu night into Fri, then the central CA waters Sat. Model guidance is similar with a strong area of high pressure building E into the nrn and central areas of the offshore waters building in from the W late Fri and Fri night while a coastal trof develops along CA through Sat night. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF models are also in agreememt with a warm front moving E across the WA/OR waters on Sat and Sat night. Plan to use the ECMWF through most of the forecast period with minor edits to its output.
Seas...plan to favor the ECMWF wam through tonight. It has trended higher with its values over the NW WA waters. Will cut seas somewhat over this area for tonight. Otherwise will use a 50/50 blend of the wwiii enp and ECMWF wam from 12z Tue through about 18z Fri. Afterwards will use the ECMWF wam since will be using the ECMWF for winds during this time.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz900...outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Rowland. Ocean prediction center.