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By: 2008HurricaneSeason , 5:32 AM GMT on August 10, 2008
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?ACTIVES=08-CPAC-01C.KIKA,08-EPAC-09E.HERNAN,08-ATL-92L .INVEST,08-CPAC-94C.INVEST,08-WPAC-94W.INVEST,08-EPAC-95E.INVEST,08-WPAC-95W.INVEST,08-EPAC-96E.INVE ST,08-WPAC-012.TCS012,08-WPAC-013.TCS013&PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=al&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&YR=08&ATCF_YR=1&YEA R=2008&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT=20080810.1115.goes12.x.vis1km_high.92LINVEST.25kts-NAmb-108N-413W.100pc. jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=al921&ATCF_DIR=1&ARCHIVE=active&MO=AUG&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=92L.INVEST&STYL E=tables&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&PRODUCT=v is&DIR=/TC/tc08/ATL/92L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom&TYPE=vis&PROD=geo&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_zoom
Invest 92L has formed! Well it is currently located about 43-44W and about 1k miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles moving north of due west at about 17 knots. Winds are estimated at 25 knots, and the convection has increased overnight, as expected...it is around diurnal max in the area. Once diurnal minimum starts to take its toll on 92L this thing will likely dissipate in my opinion.
IMO, there is too much dry air to this system (92L) to contend with. Will probably go poof within 12 hours. The wave behind it around 35W, however, has a better chance than 92L...and only if it develops a surface circulation. Right now the wave behind 92L is associated with the ITCZ and has no signs of a closed surface low. Would not look for development out of that system either, though the air will be more moisture-laden by then.
The African wave has a slightly better chance but since it hasn't gotten its entire body asea yet...we can't tell it's probability chances for development.
Right now I'm going with
3% chance for 92L
5% chance for the wave behind 92L
15% chance for the African wave
That's my best guesses. What about yours!
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