By: Civicane49 , 8:00 PM GMT on July 05, 2012
In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Daniel has strengthened over the past several hours and would likely reach hurricane status. Recent satellite loop reveals that the overall cloud pattern of Daniel is improving with a forming central dense overcast and outflow. Latest visible satellite image shows that the cyclone is trying to develop an eye. The overall cloud pattern indicates that Daniel is likely a strong tropical storm. The environmental conditions appear favorable for further strengthening of the system in the next 48 hours. Therefore, I would expect Daniel to achieve hurricane status briefly before entering into unfavorable conditions, which should weaken the cyclone. As of the 8:00 am PDT National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1002 mbar. The system is located about 600 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California as it moves west-northwestward at 12 mph.
Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is forecasted to move between west-northwestward and westward under the influence of the southern periphery of a building high pressure ridge. The models are in excellent agreement of this forecast track. The cyclone is not expected to threaten any landmasses as a tropical cyclone; however, it might affect the Hawaiian Islands by bringing some added showers and wind as a post-tropical cyclone. Daniel is expected to further strengthen in favorable conditions over the next two days. The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperature at 27°C and light wind shear of 10 knots. The SHIPS model forecasts the conditions on Daniel to remain favorable over the next 48 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to enter into cooler waters and drier atmospheric environment, which these should weaken the system. Daniel will likely become post-tropical cyclone before reaching the Hawaiian Islands.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.
East Pacific tropical disturbance
A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it is situated off the Pacific coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of the tropical disturbance as the system moves generally westward. The NHC is giving this tropical disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. In fact, models, including the GFS and ECMWF, are forecasting this disturbance to become a tropical cyclone by the next four to five days.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model forecasts yet another tropical cyclone forming in the eastern Pacific by the next seven to nine days. In the Atlantic basin, however, none of the computer models are anticipating significant tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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