Forecast Model help

By: Gorty, 3:38 AM GMT on October 07, 2013

I want to further my knowledge on forecast models, and if you anybody doesnt mind, can you answer some of my questions? Thanks in advance to whoever helped!

1. Of the EURO, GFS and NAM, which models has a cool and warm bias?

2a. When mets say energy is separated, what does the energy look like on the model and how can you tell when they combine? And at what level do they look at?

2b. What does the energy tell us?


Invest 98L and the next Potential Threat

By: Gorty, 3:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

98LWell I know most of the attention is on Irene and rightly so, but a lot of people are already covering her so I will venture out to 98L. The NHC is putting it at a 10% chance of developing and by looking at the recent satellite imagery, I can see that being correct. You could clearly see a spin to it early on in the loop, but it has since lost that. It seems it has been moisturizing the atmosphere for the next wave that will be entering the ATL in the coming d...

Question and Answer

By: Gorty, 2:39 AM GMT on August 31, 2010

To become smarter in tropical meterology, I want to ask some questions and hopefully get some answers.1. What does it mean when a tropical cyclone finds a weakness in a ridge?2. Since we have a La Nina (at least I think) shouldn't there be little to no windshear for the rest of the season?3. What is an eye wall replacement cycle? (Please, try make it simple, as I couldnt understand form when I looked it up).4. Why does there have to be a west wind to close off ...

Vwry Quick update on Alex

By: Gorty, 5:12 AM GMT on June 29, 2010

Tuesday, June 29, 2010 at 12:45 am EDT.Just as I feared... the track models had split. A batch of them keeps Alex on a more norherly course, and another bath of them has him going on a southernly course. Because of this split, and the fact Alex had been going due north, I shifted my forecast track a little north from my blog entry last night. With the GFNL still my out-lier model.Intensity wise, well, I am with the NHC, being puzzled as to why the HWRF and the GF...

Tropical Storm Alex Update

By: Gorty, 4:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

Sunday 11:48 PM EDT June 27th 2010.Alex back to TS statusWell, Alex made landfall as a 65 MPH storm. I know, old news! I am thinking, the NHC may raise its strength upon landfall to 70 MPH in post-season analysis. I can make theat claim by looking at plenty of warm water right up to the coast and the amazing structure it had. And wow. Alex may have weakened crossing the Yukatan, but he remained very impressive on satalite. He had kept a very nice and tight i...

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Hey all! I live in New England and I love tropical cyclones.

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