97L fizzles; new Bahamas disturbance develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on July 21, 2009

A strong tropical wave (97L), now located just south of Puerto Rico, has grown disorganized today. Sustained winds as high as 26 mph were observed on Barbados, and 35 mph winds were observed on St. Lucia yesterday when 97L passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands. Wind gusts to 45 mph and heavy rain can be expected in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico this afternoon, and in Haiti and the southeastern Bahama Islands on Wednesday. However, 97L is under too much wind shear to develop, and shear will remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range over the disturbance over the next two days.


Figure 1. Today's disturbances to watch.

A new tropical disturbance has formed north of the central Bahama Islands, about 600 miles east of Miami. The thunderstorm activity is not yet very intense, but does cover a moderately large area. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 20 - 25 mph, and no evidence of a circulation trying to form. This region is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and has the potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves slowly northwards. The GFS and ECMWF models hint at the possibility that this system may attempt to organize into a tropical depression by Friday, off the coast of North Carolina.

I'll have an update Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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1857. reedzone
2:39 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Wind shear is now Marginal over the Bahamas Disturbance. Wind shear is also finally decreasing there as well. Tomorrow, could be a good day for development.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1855. TheCaneWhisperer
1:55 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Too bad? Not if you are property owner in Florida. Insurance rates are high enough already.


UGGGG. I seen on the news last night that property taxes are going up 14% and State Farm wants to raise their rates by 40% to come back to Florida. Anyone looking to buy a house in the near future in Florida should probably wait until this property tax and insurance mess shakes down. It could really impact your affordability.
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1854. IKE
1:50 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting WxLogic:
1850. IKE...

LOL... are you fighting with yourself!!!


Looks like I'm saying I'm Mr. Stud...but I ain't.

On to a new blog!
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1853. WxLogic
1:49 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
1850. IKE...

LOL... are you fighting with yourself!!!
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1852. Thundercloud01221991
1:48 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
new blog
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1851. Thundercloud01221991
1:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
at this time the buoys do not show any surface circulation
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1850. IKE
1:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting IKE:
You think being wrong about the weather is limited to us amateurs?

Here's yesterday mornings discussion from Miami,FL. office....

"DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH TODAY. THEN THE FIRST
TROPICAL WAVE OVER EAST CENTRAL CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND WILL ARRIVE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST SECTIONS TO START OUT AND SPREAD WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY."



Here's this mornings Miami,FL. discussion....

"/ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009/

"DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
ON TUESDAY IS BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WAVE IS NOW ONLY CLASSIFIED AS A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH. MOST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA.
"..........


I was saying yesterday morning on here, I didn't think that wave was going to cross Florida.



Here's what me, the amateur, said yesterday....

"109. IKE 10:19 AM CDT on July 21, 2009
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

"UPDATE...
THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION AT AT 5 TO 10 MPH
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS."

.........I don't really see it moving toward SE FL. right now."

Thank you....***pats self on back***
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1849. nrtiwlnvragn
1:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting 606:
GOOD MORNING ALL.
The wave off the lesser antilles looks impressive. Is there any information on this wave? Don't want to be caught off guard like I did during carnival Monday in St Lucia, when 97L brought heavy rain and winds of 35mph.



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE GUIANAS INTO
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/WINDWARD ISLANDS BY 30-36 HRS. IT IS TO THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH 66-72 HRS.
ACROSS THE GUIANAS IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10M/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. AS IT ENTERS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS/ORINOCO
DELTA REGION IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-50MM. OVER VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH...IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. A WIND SURGE OF 30-45KT IS TO ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
60/72 HRS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1848. notanexpert
1:41 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Hurricane Acronyms

Link



Thank you
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1847. IKE
1:36 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
You think being wrong about the weather is limited to us amateurs?

Here's yesterday mornings discussion from Miami,FL. office....

"DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH TODAY. THEN THE FIRST
TROPICAL WAVE OVER EAST CENTRAL CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND WILL ARRIVE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST SECTIONS TO START OUT AND SPREAD WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY."



Here's this mornings Miami,FL. discussion....

"/ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009/

"DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
ON TUESDAY IS BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WAVE IS NOW ONLY CLASSIFIED AS A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH. MOST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA.
"..........


I was saying yesterday morning on here, I didn't think that wave was going to cross Florida.
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1846. Elena85Vet
1:36 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Hurricane Acronyms

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1845. 606
1:34 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
GOOD MORNING ALL.
The wave off the lesser antilles looks impressive. Is there any information on this wave? Don't want to be caught off guard like I did during carnival Monday in St Lucia, when 97L brought heavy rain and winds of 35mph.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1844. CybrTeddy
1:33 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


Looking better organized, but the NHC will 99% keep it at low and site 'no signs of Surface circulation.'
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1843. Cavin Rawlins
1:32 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting stoormfury:
morning 456
i have been looking at this wave in the catl since yesterday morning. although the upper level winds are now not conducive, the area is showing some form of trying to organise. it is still attached to the ITCZ and needs to break away at the moment it looks to me a suspect area. i need to watch it a little a little more to see if anything evolves


For several reasons I don't see development soon but I'm still watching it.
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1842. notanexpert
1:30 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
good morning, could someone please post the link or tell me where the list of acronym definitions are, tks
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1841. Cavin Rawlins
1:30 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
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1839. stoormfury
1:26 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
morning 456
i have been looking at this wave in the catl since yesterday morning. although the upper level winds are now not conducive, the area is showing some form of trying to organise. it is still attached to the ITCZ and needs to break away at the moment it looks to me a suspect area. i need to watch it a little a little more to see if anything evolves
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1838. WxLogic
1:25 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
MJO Arrival Forecast:

1. EWP = July 22nd (Today)
2. GFS = July 22nd (Today)
3. CFS = July 22nd (Today)

All starting from the W Central ATL westward to the GOM.

No aggressive upward motions being forecasted... but upward motion nonetheless.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1837. jeffs713
1:22 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.

You've never been through a hurricane, have you? I can speak from experience (as can many others on here), and it is *not* a fun time (or a good memory).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1836. Cavin Rawlins
1:16 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Well crownwx made a very excellent point this morning. The system will moving in the same direction as the upper flow so the net shear will be quite low.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1835. tropicfreak
1:16 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:


Nothing is showing up.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1833. GatorWX
1:14 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
NO tropical cyclone formation will happen with both of these systems because of the strong upper level winds, anyways looking at the steering components 97L and the blob aren't coming to Florida nor to the Carolinas the steering components which are the upper level winds are going to send these AOI's to sea.


Shear isn't all that hihgh in Bahamas. In the 10-20 range, but I agree, I don't think it'll develop, but not for that reason.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1832. nrtiwlnvragn
1:14 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think i still see a hint of circulation with 97L around 17.7N/72.1W


You can monitor in that general area today using Gitmo Radar
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1831. moonlightcowboy
1:11 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... specially the wave between 48W and 50W. Even though is currently has SAL to its N and W... is not representing a problem yet as it has enough moisture around it and there's some lingering vort energy in the area to spin something up over time.


Yup! Good morning, all.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1830. canesrule1
1:10 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
NO tropical cyclone formation will happen with both of these systems because of the strong upper level winds, anyways looking at the steering components 97L and the blob aren't coming to Florida nor to the Carolinas the steering components which are the upper level winds are going to send these AOI's to sea.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1829. weathermanwannabe
1:10 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Good Morning.....Fall like lows (around 65) this morning in the Florida Big Bend and the "mess" (the area or interest formerly known as "Ralph")is flowing north from the Antilles.......Not going to happen with this one but as one of the Wonderground pages show, SST's are pretty high around these areas, so, once the sheer dies down, someting will pop up, and blow up, but I don't think is will happen until August sometime.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1828. tropicfreak
1:09 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think i still see a hint of circulation with 97L around 17.7N/72.1W


I think I see it too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1827. GatorWX
1:08 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The Nhc says the convection is displaced from the wave axis.

It is. Associated with itcz.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1826. GatorWX
1:07 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Per Atlantic Discussion, the moisture associated with the atl wave is from the itcz. The wave/moisture is looking more and more impressive however. Even given the very favorable conditions in the caribbean, it will take a couple three days to develop. Right now with no surface or even mid level circulation, I wouldn't get too hyped up on this one just yet. Give it a chance, but it's going to take some time to develop if it does. Bahamas disturbance looks like a rainmaker and not much more. Not looking very tropical like at all. Shear is fairly low, 10-20 kts, and with whatever's left of 97L interacting with it, at least feeding it moisture, we could possibly, although a slim chance, see something. Hispanola will likely tear the circulation apart and leave just a broad open wave and help enhance the Bahamas disturbance at best. Our best bet for development in my eyes is the open ocean wave, but as I mentioned, it wont happen overnight. Other than that, all is quiet on the eastern front. Africa is surprisingly inactive at present, although there is a small, not too vigorous wave exiting the coast now it appears. Haven't seen such little activity near Africa in some time now. Have a good day all. Blog is actually pretty quiet too, guess everyone finally let 97 go, lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1825. Cavin Rawlins
1:07 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Tropical Update
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1824. Cavin Rawlins
1:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yup. We just need to show some patience, which has been lacked on this blog.


In my July outlook I said a 60% chance of atleast 1 name storm likely in the the last 2 weeks. By July 10 some said no July storm, and now the models showing some pretty good concensus by July 22. Patience is the virtue but some treat it like a sin. Even if nothing forms for the month, we still had a pretty good chance with 97L on sunday the Bahamian disturbance is to be seen.
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1823. BenBIogger
1:04 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Too much SAL around the 55w wave

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1822. stormpetrol
1:04 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
I think i still see a hint of circulation with 97L around 17.7N/72.1W
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1820. tropicfreak
1:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2009


Nice convection starting to pop up.
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1819. Orcasystems
12:58 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI
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1818. weatherwatcher12
12:56 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting tropicfreak:


Agreed. I can't belive that wave doesn't have model support when it's organized and heading into a favorable environment.

The Nhc says the convection is displaced from the wave axis.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1817. tropicfreak
12:56 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
A good shot of Ana before August


Yup. We just need to show some patience, which has been lacked on this blog.
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1816. Cavin Rawlins
12:55 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
A good shot of Ana before August
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1815. tropicfreak
12:55 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
An anticyclone is right over that wave near SA and has lifted north to 10N.. This does not spell out well, models don't form it, but it could do the unexpected. The Bahamas disturbance looks a bit more tropical this morning, so that will need to be watched. 97L is like I said ti was last night, RIP.


Agreed. I can't belive that wave doesn't have model support when it's organized and heading into a favorable environment.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1814. 7544
12:54 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.


peopel say it should stay off to the est off the coast but things can change by then
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1813. PensacolaDoug
12:53 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.


Too bad? Not if you are property owner in Florida. Insurance rates are high enough already.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1812. tropicfreak
12:53 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.


It won't impact Fl. It will probably have an impact on the carolinas.
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1811. reedzone
12:50 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
An anticyclone is right over that wave near SA and has lifted north to 10N.. This does not spell out well, models don't form it, but it could do the unexpected. The Bahamas disturbance looks a bit more tropical this morning, so that will need to be watched. 97L is like I said ti was last night, RIP.
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1810. hurricaneben
12:50 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.
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1809. IKE
12:49 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting tropicfreak:


Is this the wave that you were talking about?



Yeah.
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1808. Tazmanian
12:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Hi IKE,

I see they retired your son.
Deserved



LOL


sorry IKE i could not help it
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1807. tropicfreak
12:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2009
Quoting IKE:


That's what caught my eye this morning. That wave.


Is this the wave that you were talking about?

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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