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No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1391. ncstorm
11:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2011
the 00z CMC showing system off the East Coast




06Z NOGAPS showing the same system
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1389. 996tt
4:29 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
there is a vary strong cold front that will be comeing down i noted a lot of highs back E and mid W will olny make it in too the mid too upper 60 with may be be even snow in the mts like MT CO WY even no none is in the forcast for them yet but with all this cold air comeing down you nevere no i even think that the gfs where even forcasting snow for IL a round the grat lakes i wounder if it still forcasting it any way with this strong cold front droping down the gulf will be close for any storm trying too from or will it?



oh happy B day dr m


Haha, I think I kind of understood what you are saying. Another deep and unseasonably cold front could mean storms will remain well South or block GOM entrance. Its seems like in years past, such occurrences have meant the end of fun so to speak. Hope not and I hate cold weather.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1388. aspectre
4:27 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
1364 Dakster "The mountains in Florida are so deforested, they took the mountains with them...

Get your Florida beachfront properties while they're still affordable ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1387. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:27 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1386. WeatherNerdPR
4:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Not trying to sound rude, but
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1385. 996tt
4:24 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


By no means is the northern Gulf of Mexico closed for business. A storm could form in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and move northward towards the Gulf coast. Not sure if you consider Florida part of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, but we are entering their season for tropical cyclones.


I hope you are correct. Looking for some wave action and fun up here in Panhandle. I agree that lower Peninsula is at risk. With similar weather patterns, caribbean storms seem to travel sharply west, ala Nate, for Mexico or traveled due through the Florida straights, ala Wilma. If you say one cold still punch through, cool. I had hoped the current front would lose its grip, but bummed about the new cold front. Maybe it won't come so far South.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1384. atmoaggie
4:23 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Any surge data? Talk about a tempest in a teapot.
None that I know of.

Not likely higher than ~7 feet above normal, at a singular peak, with this one, though. *Could* be significant for some coastal folks, there, but certainly not spectacular.

With this profile, probably a wider area of ~4 feet above normal. IIRC, tidal range there is rather small, as well.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1383. stormwatcherCI
4:20 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How are the winds?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 16:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 15:33:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°22'N 64°26'W (19.3667N 64.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 125 miles (202 km) to the ENE (58°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,481m (4,859ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 42kts (From the ESE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:53:00Z
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1382. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:20 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
NEW BLOG

Thx. CybrTeddy
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1380. WeatherNerdPR
4:20 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, somebody didn't want to hit the islands, lol.


She still made it rain...a little. lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1379. CybrTeddy
4:19 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How are the winds?


SFMR decided to quit out on us, but this was recorded on the SFMR with a WNW wind.
27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1378. RussianWinter
4:19 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1377. stormwatcherCI
4:19 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:
According to latest center fix Maria center has moved/relocated N/NNE, go figure



Her coc is visible on this.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1376. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:18 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon has confirmed to me at least that Maria still has a closed circulation, whole page of west winds, a lot of them pure west winds. If anything, it has gotten better defined.


How are the winds?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1375. seafarer459
4:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
To Dr Masters.
Ha Be Birdy 2 Ewe.
Thanks for all you do.
May gentle weather blow through.
Ha Be Birdy 2 Ewe
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1374. CybrTeddy
4:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Recon has confirmed to me at least that Maria still has a closed circulation, whole page of west winds, a lot of them pure west winds. If anything, it has gotten better defined.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1373. washingtonian115
4:16 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Wow to share a Birthday with 9/11 doc is something.But you were born first before this.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1372. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:16 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Well, somebody didn't want to hit the islands, lol.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1371. CybrTeddy
4:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting CREEYCRAWL:
i totally agree 100% and if people remember i said this back on june 1st



Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1370. WeatherNerdPR
4:13 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Getting occasional downpours from Maria.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1369. Tazmanian
4:13 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
there is a vary strong cold front that will be comeing down i noted a lot of highs back E and mid W will olny make it in too the mid too upper 60 with may be be even snow in the mts like MT CO WY even no none is in the forcast for them yet but with all this cold air comeing down you nevere no i even think that the gfs where even forcasting snow for IL a round the grat lakes i wounder if it still forcasting it any way with this strong cold front droping down the gulf will be close for any storm trying too from or will it?



oh happy B day dr m
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1368. Skyepony (Mod)
4:12 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Glitter Graphics

Happy Birthday Glitter Graphics



May only good things strike you this year..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1367. will40
4:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
From 260° at 20 knots
(From the W at ~ 23.0 mph)

there they are
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1366. WeatherNerdPR
4:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Happy Birthday Jeff!
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1365. stormpetrol
4:10 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
According to latest center fix Maria center has moved/relocated N/NNE, go figure
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1364. Dakster
4:10 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
The mountains in Florida are so deforested, they took the mountains with them...

(and I know Shen was kidding...)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1363. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:09 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting 996tt:


Yep, as I have been saying since the day Lee started moving through, we are hitting a pattern that shuts the Northern GOM down for tropical storm activity. I can see basti11, who has been all over the place, jumped on board probably to try and annoy those of us who like and want tropical weather.

Sucks that another front is coming down. Temperatures are already cool and nice enough. What do we need to change that would say "open" the Northern GOM back up for business. Sucks to miss out on the best time frame for storms to get some crap Canadian air.


By no means is the northern Gulf of Mexico closed for business. A storm could form in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and move northward towards the Gulf coast. Not sure if you consider Florida part of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, but we are entering their season for tropical cyclones.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1362. Tazmanian
4:08 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Probably: the deforested mountains of Florida, the Sunny Beaches of NOLA or the Bayous of Hati, anywhere but the burning swamps of Texas.



ok
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1361. Cotillion
4:08 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Happy birthday Jeff!

Must feel kinda peculiar... having a day of celebration next to a day of an obvious subdued nature.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1360. bluenosedave
4:08 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Models are latching onto the idea that the Cape Verde season isn't over, not quite yet. The CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and NGP all show a strong tropical wave, and perhaps a tropical depression near/over the Cape Verde Islands at 144 hours.

CMC @ 144 hours:



ECMWF @ 144 hours:



GFS @ 144 hours:



NGP @ 144 hours:



I notice most of those showing Newfoundland getting the full brunt of Maria. Ewwww.
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1359. Dakster
4:08 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
HAPPY BIRTHDAY DOC MASTERS!!!
------------------------------

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1358. 996tt
4:07 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have little doubt that Maria will not turn out to sea like the models are currently hinting. There is a strong Cold Front setting up near the Canada/USA border today, and it will enter the USA tomorrow. This is by far the strongest Cold Front we have seen since Winter/Spring, and it will result in 10-20 degree BELOW average temperatures across the Midwest. As Maria moves towards the WNW/NW, it will begin to interact with the Cold Front, and will be taken out to sea. It won't be a gradual turn like Irene, but a very sharp curve. The only areas I really see this affecting is Bermuda, other than the Caribbean Islands. IMO, Maria will get stronger than the NHC is indicating at this time, perhaps up to 85-90 mph.



Yep, as I have been saying since the day Lee started moving through, we are hitting a pattern that shuts the Northern GOM down for tropical storm activity. I can see basti11, who has been all over the place, jumped on board probably to try and annoy those of us who like and want tropical weather.

Sucks that another front is coming down. Temperatures are already cool and nice enough. What do we need to change that would say "open" the Northern GOM back up for business. Sucks to miss out on the best time frame for storms to get some crap Canadian air.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1357. will40
4:06 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
recon finding WNW winds but no true W yet
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1356. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Today's Jeff's Birthday?

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JEFF!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1355. ShenValleyFlyFish
4:03 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
Nate's long-loop radar with landfall (very tough to pick out a center): Link

And surprising how little rainfall has come from it. Probably so little rainfall so as to avoid any landslide/mudslide issues.
Any surge data? Talk about a tempest in a teapot.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1354. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
4:03 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting o22sail:


Cool!
hbd tu Dr. M


Thanks!

Jeff
1353. BahaHurican
4:02 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters...


Where's the cake? lol

And there goes our update for the day.... lol... he prolly got ambushed and carted off for fun and games.... lol

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1352. atmoaggie
4:01 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Probably: the deforested mountains of Florida, the Sunny Beaches of NOLA or the Bayous of Hati, anywhere but the burning swamps of Texas.
? Lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1351. BahaHurican
4:00 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I hate to say it but I sure hope Maria does not decide to take an Ike like track.
Not really expecting that much of a southward turn, but wondering if that front pple are discussing will get Maria out of the zone before it impacts us. Mind u, NHC has been pretty on the ball with the timing of this stuff since Emily, but still....
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1350. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:00 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
╱╭━━╮╱╱╱╱┏┓╱┏┓╱
╱┃╭╮┃╱╱╱┏╯┃┏╯┃╱
╱┃╰╯┃┏━┓┗┓┃┗┓┃╱
╱╰━┓┃┗━┛╱┃┃╱┃┃╱
╱┏━╯┃╱╱╱╱┃┃╱┃┃╱
╱┗━━╯╱╱╱╱┗┛╱┗┛╱ Gone but never forgotten ♥.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1349. o22sail
4:00 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters...




Cool!
hbd tu Dr. M
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1348. atmoaggie
4:00 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Nate's long-loop radar with landfall (very tough to pick out a center): Link

And surprising how little rainfall has come from it. Probably so little rainfall so as to avoid any landslide/mudslide issues.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1347. Skyepony (Mod)
3:59 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Maria MIMIC.
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1345. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:59 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also basti11, your post is assuming that the rest of the season's storms don't form in the Caribbean.

Those cold fronts you mentioned, if a storm forms in the western Caribbean this year, which is likely if you look at the conditions, in October. It could be forced towards the US in a similar manner to October landfalling storms. We are not out of the woods yet, Irene should have been the big hint that this season isn't a tranquil one for the USA.




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1344. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:58 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where it will head off too
Probably: the deforested mountains of Florida, the Sunny Beaches of NOLA or the Bayous of Hati, anywhere but the burning swamps of Texas.
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1343. Patrap
3:57 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters...


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1342. stormwatcherCI
3:57 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
did nate even make and fall?
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF NATE HAS ACTUALLY
MOVED A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...KEEPING
THE CENTER OFFSHORE UP TO THIS TIME.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1341. CybrTeddy
3:56 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Also basti11, your post is assuming that the rest of the season's storms don't form in the Caribbean.

Those cold fronts you mentioned, if a storm forms in the western Caribbean this year, which is likely if you look at the conditions, in October. It could be forced towards the US in a similar manner to October landfalling storms. We are not out of the woods yet, Irene should have been the big hint that this season isn't a tranquil one for the USA.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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