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Weakening Tropical Storm Ophelia hits Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:15 PM GMT on October 03, 2011

A weakening Tropical Storm Ophelia passed over Southeast Newfoundland this morning, bringing tropical storm force winds and heavy rains. Ophelia's center passed over Cape Race at about 10:30 am local time, and that station measured sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 61 mph. Ophelia's highest winds were recorded at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland, where sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 59 mph, occurred at 9:30 am local time. The capital of St. John's received 0.94" inches of rain, and recorded a peak wind gust of 40 mph this morning. Ophelia's greatest rains at any airport in Newfoundland were 1.72" at St. Pierre. Ophelia is headed out to sea at 35 mph, and will transition to an extratropical storm this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with modest heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. Shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. Philippe could become a hurricane in Wednesday or Thursday when the shear relaxes. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

92L over the Azores no threat to develop for several days
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, an extratropical storm with plenty of spin but no heavy thunderstorm activity is located over the Azores Islands. This storm, designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning, is over cold waters of 22 - 23°C and under very high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots. 92L is not a threat to develop today and Tuesday, and is not being given any mention in NHC's tropical weather outlook. However, 92L could start to build some heavy thunderstorms by Wednesday, as it moves west-southwest and finds warmer waters and lower wind shear. The system is unlikely to threaten any land areas.

Tropical Storm Nalgae headed for Vietnam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nalgae will be skirting China's Hainan Island on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will make final landfall over Vietnam on Wednesday afternoon. Nalgae is not expected to regain typhoon strength. Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time on Saturday morning, and is being blamed for eighteen deaths. The typhoon dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon, on soils already saturated from the rains of Typhoon Nesat just five days previously. Typhoon Nesat killed at least 52 people in the Philippines and three in China.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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364. kshipre1
2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
thanks for taking the time to respond! have a nice day
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
363. 1900hurricane
1:54 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Nice...

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362. WxLogic
1:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting kshipre1:
ok, can someone please tell me if there could be travel delays on the west coast of Florida around Monday night with the possible impending strong winds and low pressure spinning up?

does anyone have some good insight? I know it is a stupid question given nothing has formed but if someone can please advise, thanks


If a deep enough system develops then there could be delays. For now, the changes of a travel delay directly related to WX generated by this aforementioned disturbance are currently low in the W FL Coast.

Once we start getting close to the weekend, we'll see if such a system does come to fruition and how strong.
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361. SPLbeater
1:28 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
it seemed to me, last night phillipe tried forming an eye but didnt hold it but for an horu ro 2 before it succumbed to the wind shear. even so, PHILLIPE IS ONE TOUGH TS!!
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360. kshipre1
1:26 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
ok, can someone please tell me if there could be travel delays on the west coast of Florida around Monday night with the possible impending strong winds and low pressure spinning up?

does anyone have some good insight? I know it is a stupid question given nothing has formed but if someone can please advise, thanks
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359. KUEFC
1:19 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
This is sundays forecast for Orlando from the NWS, does it really tie into what is being predicted?

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 5 and 15 mph
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358. superpete
1:11 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr:
I don't wish another Krakatoa, with its catastrophic consecuenses, but some "experts" comment, that if that event repeated, it would cool down the earth....
There is a great book titled' The day the World exploded' by author Simon Winchester.He looks in depth at the geology of the region in Java & Sumatra & the discovery of plate tectonics
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357. Tropicsweatherpr
1:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
nrtiwlnvragn, you posted yesterday the graphic of tropical cyclone formation probabilities for the next two weeks,but I dont see the latest at link. When will it update?

Link
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356. kwgirl
1:00 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Good morning everyone. We had a nice rain storm last night here in the keys, with gusts of wind up to 45 mph. About an inch of rain fell on the lower keys. Today the forecast is a 75% chance for rain. Sorry Texas! Wish I could send it your way.
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355. FLWeatherFreak91
12:59 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
From the tampa area forecast discussion: .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SURGES ARE EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THEN MODELS TRY TO SPIN UP A LOW SOMEWHERE AROUND THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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354. islander101010
12:58 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
see some bending to the clouds over the central bahamas is it the beginning of the subtropical system?
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353. GeoffreyWPB
12:43 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
And just to add to the uncertainty....

Melbourne NWS Discussion

EXTENDED...A CONSENSUS OF GUID ACROSS THE EAST CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HGHT FALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC CYCLONE
GENESIS OCCURRING EITHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO NEAR THE SRN FL
PENINSULA. THIS IS A MORE WESTERN PLACEMENT TO WHAT WAS DEPICTED
ON MONDAY.

DGEX/CMC ARE MORE ROBUST ATTM WITH DEPTH OF SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT S
OR JUST W OF SRN FL EARLY IN THE WEEK AND LIFTING NWD...WITH
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING WAVE/WEAKER SFC FEATURE. THERE EXISTS HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE ON SLOW MOVING UPR CYCLONE AND A CERTAIN
DURATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MENTION OF EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL DURING
THE WEEKEND ASCD WITH RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF SFC FEATURE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN HAVE
RAISED POPS DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN PRODUCING MECHANICS IN THE LOCAL AREA. MOST
NOTEWORTHY WILL BE A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF STOUT ONSHORE WINDS
WHICH WL PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION AND LARGE POUNDING WAVES LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
352. nrtiwlnvragn
12:41 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE EVOLUTION OF A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR FLORIDA REMAINS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS THE 12Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS KEPT GOOD DAY TO DAY CONTINUITY WITH
THE SYSTEM AND STILL SHOWS GOOD SUPPORT FOR ITS EXISTENCE. THIS
LOW IS SPAWNED BY ENERGY FROM THE WESTERLIES WHICH DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS. A
MOBILE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEAKNESS TO THE CYCLONES NORTHWEST
CAUSED BY THE PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW NORTHWEST
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW WITH TIME. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE EMPHATIC WITH ITS DEEPENING
SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO THE TEPID SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT THEY LIE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN IN THE CARDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA/GEORGIA FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. POSSIBLE OCTOBER ANALOGS TO
THIS FEATURE /WHICH SHOWED A SIMILAR PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST AND
HIGH PLAINS/ REMAIN THE OCTOBER 14 1956 QUASI-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
THE OCTOBER 4 1974 CYCLONE /SUBTROPICAL STORM FOUR/. THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIE NORTHEAST/TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAY
19-20 2009 GULF GALE WHICH CAUSED A LARGE AREA OF OVER SEVEN
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.



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351. GeoffreyWPB
12:32 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Jacksonville NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASING
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HAVE CAPPED POPS JUST BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY...AS IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS WILL ESTABLISH.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPIN UP OVER THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS FEATURE ARE UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH HAVE DISCOUNTED THE DGEX
SOLN WHICH BRINGS A VIGOROUS LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
NONETHELESS... RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
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350. MahFL
12:25 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting intampa:
good morning... i never post here but i keep seeing many people calling for heavy rain/wind for florida this weekend then the very next post are copies of the NWS in miami saying probably not.... any thoughts on rain this weekend in florida? i wouldnt mind some rain in the tampa area ....


Heavy rain and some wind is possible due to a North Easter, but on the North East of the coast of Florida, without stating the obvious, the coastline of Fl is quite long, and conditions do vary from local to local.
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349. CaribBoy
12:21 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
However GFS is indicating some EASTWARD moving storms across the central caribbean by the end of its past runs.. like hurricane omar or lenny.
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348. CaribBoy
12:17 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Oh my god what a disappointment. Doesn't look like October, where is the rain?? over two weeks with nothing and GFS forecast is still dry for the NE carib.
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347. KUEFC
12:15 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
I mean flight cancellations this weekend
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346. kayemill
12:08 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
I too am confused about the weekend weather in Florida. I will be in Orlando over the weekend. Should I expect it to be wet there?

As post 338 mentions, there is alot of variations in the predictions even from NWS. I guess there is still alot of uncertainty?
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345. MarcoIslandCat5
12:03 PM GMT on October 04, 2011


Temp anomaly's 3rd october
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344. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:02 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting KUEFC:
Nothing to worry about with regard to flight cancellations then?

Eh, we'll have to see what it looks like mid-week. If what the models were showing yesterday occurs, there would be several days of very heavy rain and strong winds. That would definitely cancel flights...However, this may or may not occur.

With that, I am off to school, see ya.
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343. KUEFC
12:00 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Nothing to worry about with regard to flight cancellations then?
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342. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:00 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
At first glance, it appears that Philippe is about to show his low-level circulation. However, visible loops show that the center being embedded further and further into the convection.

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341. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:58 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting KUEFC:
How windy? in MPH?

Some models yesterday were saying winds close to gale force.
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340. KUEFC
11:54 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
How windy? in MPH?
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339. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:52 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting intampa:
good morning... i never post here but i keep seeing many people calling for heavy rain/wind for florida this weekend then the very next post are copies of the NWS in miami saying probably not.... any thoughts on rain this weekend in florida? i wouldnt mind some rain in the tampa area ....

It should be very wet and windy.
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338. intampa
11:51 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
good morning... i never post here but i keep seeing many people calling for heavy rain/wind for florida this weekend then the very next post are copies of the NWS in miami saying probably not.... any thoughts on rain this weekend in florida? i wouldnt mind some rain in the tampa area ....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
337. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:50 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
Morning all! its a nice 70f here at the moment still going to top 89f this afternoon!
What do you guys think about the clouds that are growing near panama, going to be our R storm?

Possibly, although there is now a chance for Subtropical development near Florida this weekend, which may make the possible Caribbean's storms chances of getting the "R" name jeopardized.
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336. MarcoIslandCat5
11:37 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Morning all! its a nice 70f here at the moment still going to top 89f this afternoon!
What do you guys think about the clouds that are growing near panama, going to be our R storm?
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335. GeoffreyWPB
11:34 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
334. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:34 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting floodzonenc:
Anyone know anything about this possible low developing?

Per Morehead City NWS...

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE. .NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIUOS FCST THROUGH PERIOD. IN WAKE OF UPR LOW MOVING OFF NE U.S. COAST...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE WARMING TEMPS WED. SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS WELL
TO NE WILL ALLOW SECONDARY CAA SURGE THU WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TEMPS 3-5 DEGS COOLER ON THU. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR REST OF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
SETTLES OVER AREA AND UPR RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA FROM W. LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TROPICAL MSTR WITH PSBL HYBRID LOW DEVELOPMENT REMAINING S OF AREA THROUGH MON.

Yeah, we could see the development of at least a Subtropical low off the coast of Florida as we head into next weekend. Either way, Florida is going to have a very wet and windy weekend, lasting into next week.
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333. GeoffreyWPB
11:31 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Miami NWS Discussion

AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THIS
WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OVER THE AREA. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
CAUSE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE VERY
QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING THE DURATION OF RAINFALL.
THEREFORE WILL REMOVE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING FROM THE EXTENDED
HWO SECTION.
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332. WxLogic
11:14 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Good Morning
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331. strong2011storm
11:00 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
at 11.49 im my house are 29.9 degrees celsius
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329. Autistic2
10:42 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting vince1:
Soz, I didn't mean to volcanocast. :)


Just when I thought I had heard them all. Eastcasting, Flacasting, upcasting,etc.

Now VOLCANO CASTING, wow, All we need now is a volcano in a hurricane and we can have firewind casting!..... :)
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328. islander101010
10:36 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting strong2011storm:
92L vanished but in satelite images is gaining a very litle convection

volcaoes that are in major risc to erupt: el hierro( canary islands), kilawea ( hawai, but kilawea is in other level), etna ( italy , is in eruption), anak krakatoa, A volcano in japan i don`t know the name, cleveland in aleutan islands, 3 volcanos in russia.

but the volcAno that is more dangerous is yelowstone but i don`t think that will erupt

in here portugal is the time of the sunrise and temperatures are rising now (22.8 celsius)
nicaraqua has a few too and they are on off and on of recent looks like the 0 storm is going to give france a dose of long period swell
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327. JrWeathermanFL
10:27 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
How do you get a hurricane out of Phillipe?
Of course I thought that about Ophelia...
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326. vince1
9:33 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Soz, I didn't mean to volcanocast. :)
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325. strong2011storm
9:31 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting vince1:

What makes you so sure? 2012 is just around the corner after all. ;) Of course, seismic activity there has been on the rise over the past several years...hopefully not the prelude to any eminent geologic event, or many of us will be choking on ash for the rest of our short lives.


inseted look at volcanoes : tambora and anak krakatau this two volcanoes are in alert and both of them cause devastating eruptions
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324. strong2011storm
9:25 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
caribean and panama .. this region are under deep convection it starting to get scary who lives there?
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323. vince1
9:24 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting strong2011storm:
but the volcAno that is more dangerous is yelowstone but i don`t think that will erupt

What makes you so sure? 2012 is just around the corner after all. ;) Of course, seismic activity there has been on the rise over the past several years...hopefully not the prelude to any eminent geologic event, or many of us will be choking on ash for the rest of our short lives.
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322. BahaHurican
8:50 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Morning all. I see the blog is pretty quiet today.... I haven't been in much due to some under-the-weather-ness.... :o)

I'm literally under the weather here this a.m..... got woken up by the thunderstorms and heavy rain about 2 a.m. local time and haven't been able to get back to sleep since then. Sure and I'm not looking forward to the early morning drive today....

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
321. strong2011storm
7:24 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
92L vanished but in satelite images is gaining a very litle convection

volcaoes that are in major risc to erupt: el hierro( canary islands), kilawea ( hawai, but kilawea is in other level), etna ( italy , is in eruption), anak krakatoa, A volcano in japan i don`t know the name, cleveland in aleutan islands, 3 volcanos in russia.

but the volcAno that is more dangerous is yelowstone but i don`t think that will erupt

in here portugal is the time of the sunrise and temperatures are rising now (22.8 celsius)
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320. FrankZapper
7:21 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr:


Imagine how many tall buildings near the coast in different areas.....

1883 Krakatoa tsunami

In 1883, the volcanic island of Krakatoa erupted in Indonesia. The blast destroyed two-thirds of the island and sent 130-foot-high waves surging across the Indian Ocean, killing 36,500 people from Indonesia to India.

According to the US National Geophysical Data Center, an air pressure wave from the blast traveled around the Earth seven times.
It is not written. Ha!
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317. sunlinepr
5:41 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Sunlinepr the death toll could be as high as the 2004 tsunami or worse.

With that I am going to sleep. Night all!



Im to bed also....

No need to worry.... Son of Krakatoa is very small compared with his father....
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316. petewxwatcher
5:31 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Sunlinepr the death toll could be as high as the 2004 tsunami or worse.

With that I am going to sleep. Night all!
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315. sunlinepr
5:28 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting petewxwatcher:


For a few years. 1883 eruption and tsunami killed 36,000 people. I wonder how many live in vulnerable areas around there now?


Imagine how many tall buildings near the coast in different areas.....

1883 Krakatoa tsunami

In 1883, the volcanic island of Krakatoa erupted in Indonesia. The blast destroyed two-thirds of the island and sent 130-foot-high waves surging across the Indian Ocean, killing 36,500 people from Indonesia to India.

According to the US National Geophysical Data Center, an air pressure wave from the blast traveled around the Earth seven times.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
314. petewxwatcher
5:24 AM GMT on October 04, 2011
Philippe will pass about 125-150 miles north of this buoy later this morning.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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