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Sean brushes Bermuda; largest wave ever surfed; Tipton tornado an EF-4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on November 11, 2011

Tropical Storm Sean brushed by Bermuda this morning, bringing winds near tropical storm force to the island. Top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport were 37 mph this morning, and a gust of 56 mph occurred at 4:38 am AST. Dry air disrupted the circulation of Sean before it reached Bermuda, and the island picked up just 0.08" of rain as of 10 am AST today. Sean is headed northeastward, out to sea, and will cease to exist later today or on Saturday. Sean may not be the last storm of the season, however. The most recent runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models all predict an extratropical storm capable of transitioning to a subtropical or tropical storm will form in the middle Atlantic late next week. If such a storm did form, it would be called Tammy, and would not threaten any land areas.


Figure 1. A wet, windy day in Bermuda: morning webcam image from the island. Image credit: freddiebda's webcam.

Largest wave ever surfed
A new world record was set this week for the largest wave ever surfed. On Tuesday, November 8, Hawaiian big wave rider Garrett McNamara caught a 90-foot (27 meter) wave during a tow-surfing session just offshore of the small fishing village of Nazare, Portugal. An undersea canyon 5000 meters deep runs very close to the shore, and the unique bathymetry is known to create unusually large waves when west-northwest swells affect the coast. On Tuesday, an approaching cold front extending southwards from a low pressure system centered just south of Iceland generated strong winds off the coast of Portugal, and a west-northwest swell of 8 meters (26'). The canyon generated three big waves in excess of 60 feet that day, and McNamara was able to catch the tallest, 90-foot wave. The previous record highest wave surfed was a 77-foot (23 meter) wave caught in 2008 at Cortes Bank off the coast of Southern California by Mike Parsons.


Video 1. Surfer Garrett McNamara rides a 90-foot wave off the coast of Portugal on November 8, 2011, setting a new world record for the largest wave ever riden.

November 7 Tipton, Oklahoma tornado rated an EF-4
The powerful tornado that hit Tipton, Oklahoma on November 7 has been rated an EF-4 by the National Weather Service. The Tipton tornado hit two Oklahoma Mesonet stations and destroyed them; the Tipton mesonet site measured winds of 86.4 mph and the Fort Cobb site measured winds of 91.4 mph before destruction. The tornado was one of a family of six spawned that day by the parent supercell thunderstorm. The Tipton tornado is the first November EF-4 tornado in Oklahoma's history, and one of only twenty EF-4 or stronger November tornadoes observed in the U.S. since 1950, according to the Tornado History Project. There have been twelve December EF-4 tornadoes and two December EF-5 tornadoes observed in the U.S. since 1950. The confirmed tornado count for 2011 is 1543, putting this year in third place so far for most tornadoes, behind the 1692 tornadoes observed in 2004 and 1817 tornadoes in 2008. By the time the year ends, 2011 should wind up with 1600 - 1700 confirmed tornadoes.


Figure 2. Time series showing the weather at the Fort Cobb, OK mesonet station during passage of the November 7, 2011 Tipton tornado. A wind gust of 91.4 mph and pressure spike down to 946 mb occurred during the tornado's passage. Image credit: NWS/Norman Oklahoma.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Southwest Oklahoma Chase 11-7-11 (strmchsr77)
This is the Tipton-Snyder, OK tornado. This supercell produced multiple tornadoes over a couple of hours.
Southwest Oklahoma Chase 11-7-11
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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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676. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:05 AM GMT on November 18, 2011

Tammy and Kenneth
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
675. StormTracker2K
2:51 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting weatherbro:


At least the Southeast Ridge will break down by the 22-24th time frame. So I expect a short but sweet shot of chilly air for Thanksgiving.

But don't expect any sustained arctic air in the East until early December or so, when the pattern should shift and be much more favorable by then!


I hope your right but that doesn't appear to be the case but who knows that can change.

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674. StormTracker2K
2:47 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
In the 70s for lows this morning so is it July or August or is it still November, too darn warm for this time of year, bring on the Cold Weather Please. Have a great day!


We may have record highs and record low highs here in C FL as well. Very warm weather pattern setting up for what could be atleast 2 weeks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
673. weatherbro
2:45 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy that is one strong ridge basically blocking any cold air from coming east and south.



At least the Southeast Ridge will break down by the 22-24th time frame. So I expect a short but sweet shot of chilly air for Thanksgiving.

But don't expect any sustained arctic air in the East until early December or so, when the pattern should shift and be much more favorable by then!

For now this will build the cold and snow up in Canada. The longer the delay, the stronger the onslaught.
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672. Skyepony (Mod)
2:17 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
There's that blob in the Caribbean I was talking about late last week. It's waited too long I think, to have any sort of chance, atleast in the Atlantic.. May make for another in the EPac.
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671. bohonkweatherman
2:14 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
In the 70s for lows this morning so is it July or August or is it still November, too darn warm for this time of year, bring on the Cold Weather Please. Have a great day!
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670. StormTracker2K
1:39 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
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669. stormpetrol
1:38 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
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668. StormTracker2K
1:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Reminds me of pre-Rina in the cloud appearance, but there is no way that it will be anything like her in track or intensity


The SST in the Caribbean are very warm only problem is that dry air to it's north but the models are forecasting this to erode so well see. I wouldn't be surprised if were tracking a hurricane in the Caribbean come Thanksgiving weekend as this could be a slow mover.
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667. WxGeekVA
1:32 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This could be the seed here in the Southern Caribbean. Suspect this area maybe highlighted over the coming days.



Reminds me of pre-Rina in the cloud appearance, but there is no way that it will be anything like her in track or intensity
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666. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:09 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
I leave you guys this morning with this image depicting the current situation.

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665. StormTracker2K
12:55 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Boy that is one strong ridge basically blocking any cold air from coming east and south.

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664. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:49 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Tammy maybe on the way over the next week!


I don't know about Tammy (Atlantic), but it is highly likely we will see Kenneth develop in a few days time (Eastern Pacific).

00Z CMC @ 144 hours:



00Z ECMWF @ 144 hours:



06Z GFS @ 144 hours:



00Z NOGAPS @ 144 hours:

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663. StormTracker2K
12:49 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
This could be the seed here in the Southern Caribbean. Suspect this area maybe highlighted over the coming days.

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662. StormTracker2K
12:47 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
I know long ways out but this is consistant with the upward spike in the MJO.

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661. StormTracker2K
12:44 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Tammy maybe on the way over the next week!

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660. StormTracker2K
12:43 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
The heat is on here in FL!
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659. StormTracker2K
12:41 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011


.DISCUSSION...

...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS FL AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXES WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH FL WITH LIGHT EAST TO
ESE FLOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE MOISTURE FROM A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST AND NW
FROM THE BAHAMAS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR TOO
LATE TO IMPACT (INCREASE) RAIN CHANCES...IT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION AREAWIDE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY ADDRESSES THIS WELL.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
TEMPS...L80S FOR MAXES AND M-U60S FOR MINS.

TUE-WED...SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL
WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RESPOND BY VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND POOL
NORTHWARD AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE TO THIS WILL
KEEP INHERITED GRIDS OF SMALL THREAT 15 TO 20 PERCENT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.

CLIMO HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS RECORDS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO
WE WILL AT LEAST BE CLOSE EACH AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINT VALUES
APPROACHING THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN
MILD IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
CLIMO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR RUN IN THE 50S. ITS POSSIBLE THAT RECORD WARM LOWS MAY ALSO BE
IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING.

THU-SUN...FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TARGETED FOR THU AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS (30 TO 40
PERCENT) KMLB-KISM NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND 20 PERCENT FURTHER
SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. A WIND SURGE WILL FOLLOW WITH GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THU
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A
FEW PERIODS INTO THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIXATED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS ON THU AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH HIGHS/LOWS CLOSER TOWARD CLIMO ON FRI BUT THEN
INCREASING AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ALSO RETURN AND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT
NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
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658. islander101010
12:17 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
biggest wave? maybe tallest yes but jaws during a maxing swell is number 1
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657. GeoffreyWPB
12:06 PM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'll be back in 2013. Carry on and be good. And be kind. A good group here. Farewell!


Take care Brian and thank you.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
656. GeoffreyWPB
11:59 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
I just found one of my baby pictures. Damn I was cute!

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655. RTLSNK
11:53 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Morning Wunderworld, its 0653 hrs in Macon, Georgia, 47*F, 97% Humidity, winds calm, clear sky, visibility 10 miles, high today in the mid 70's.

French Roast Coffee with sugar and cream and Cinnamon Rolls and Apple Friters are on the side board. Breakfast will be served promptly at 0800 hrs.

Bacon, sausage patties, country ham, eggs to order and western omelettes, cheese grits and real oatmeal with brown sugar and cream, home fries with onions, blueberry pancakes and Belgian waffles with real butter and maple syrup, and for the kids, Frosted Flakes with chocolate milk.

Don't laugh. And don't knock it if you've never tried it. Works like a charm on my Grandkids. Pure energy food. Wires them right up. After breakfast have them go out and rotate the tires on your car and polish the chrome on the Harley. When they are done with that, fire up the John Deere lawn tractor and let one of them cut the grass and give the other one the weed wacker.

Just make sure the one with the weed wacker doesn't go anywhere near Grandma's flower gardens.

I'm still getting flack over that little mistake. It looked like a weed to me. :)
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654. AussieStorm
11:52 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Cold front has past through Sydney in the last hour. Temps have dropped 10C since it's passing. Was 31C at 21:50 and not 21C at 22:50.


Loop
Cold front is now passing Lake Macquarie on it's way to Newcastle.
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653. GeoffreyWPB
11:45 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
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652. aislinnpaps
11:33 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Just thought I'd say a quick hello, but no one here this early. Looks like big storms for us tomorrow. Everyone have a great Monday!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
651. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:31 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
18:00 PM FST November 14 2011
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01 (1005 hPa) analyzed at 14.5S 176.0E is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible with animation and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Convection has increased and remains persistent in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface up to 500 HPA. Disturbance 01F lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region along a surface trough in a low to moderate sheared environment.

Most model have picked the system and slowly moves it south southeast with slight intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains low.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
650. FrankZapper
7:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I have, I don't like them. Every song sounds the same.
You're right. They don't have the diversity of Justin Bieber.
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649. SherwoodSpirit
6:53 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
#597 Rickrolled on the Wunderblog! Now I've seen it all. :)
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648. Skyepony (Mod)
6:36 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
pcola~ Felt like 29,000mph..no special equipment was needed but many in attendance used regardless..we may be thinking of different Treys..this is the typical highlight I experienced. Feel better. Kinda catching up here too.

The three invests aren't very impressive. Indian ocean one (97B) has near no chance.
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647. AussieStorm
6:28 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Weather news looks pretty slow..

Invest near Fiji is causing flooding.


.

Fiji met has this forecast for 95P

Tuesday 15th November
TD01F is expected to lie within the shaded region near Fiji. The potential for TD01F to develop in to a tropical cyclone is low.

Wednesday 16th November
TD01F is expected to lie within the shaded region near Fiji. The potential for TD01F to develop in to a tropical cyclone is moderate.

Thursday 17th November
TD01F is expected to lie within the shaded region near Tonga. The potential for TD01F to develop in to a tropical cyclone is moderate.





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646. Skyepony (Mod)
6:07 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Weather news looks pretty slow..

Invest near Fiji is causing flooding.

Some findings on rogue wave triggers.

An ongoing EPA investigation of possible contamination from hydrofracking in Wyoming has found significant amounts of cancer-causing fracking chemicals in a freshwater aquifer in that state.

I'm surprised, Keystone pipeline might not be going through after all.

GeoffreyWPB~ I was a Greyhound racing announcer among other things at two FL tracks. The first female Greyhound track announcer in the state from what I was told. I may go back someday..
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645. caneswatch
6:07 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There are a lot of bands better than pink floyd


The same statement as I said in post 643 applies here.
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644. VAbeachhurricanes
5:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


I'm going to pretend I didn't hear that, and probably many others will do the same.


There are a lot of bands better than pink floyd
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643. caneswatch
5:56 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I have, I don't like them. Every song sounds the same.


I'm going to pretend I didn't hear that, and probably many others will do the same.
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642. VAbeachhurricanes
5:50 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


And you never heard of Pink Floyd?


I have, I don't like them. Every song sounds the same.
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641. pcola57
5:50 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
pcola57~ I just got in from camping at Bear Creek Festival in NFL. It was 28%uFFFDF Friday night. Saw Trey lastnight.

That storm was going on in the Bearing Sea when I left, Masters did a blog on it. There was some great footage on Youtube. Sounded like a hurricane. Made landfall like 4 days ago.


I've been ill but try to catch up...can't really write well at this time...I bet you had a tremdous time(28F is chilly!!)(Trey moving at 29,000mph/487.3per sec is a wow factor...takes special equip to view that) at the festival.I've never been but want to go sometime soon.I will look up Dr. Masters Archives and U-tube vids..GB and thanks to you...If I can't respond tonight again please understand..TIA
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640. caneswatch
5:49 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


No, ACDC, The Who, Rolling Stones, Kansas.


And you never heard of Pink Floyd?
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639. caneswatch
5:48 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting NJcat3cane:


seen that about 10 years back or so..and it was AMAZING


My father went last year, and he said it was the best concert he ever went to.
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638. VAbeachhurricanes
5:45 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'll be back in 2013. Carry on and be good. And be kind. A good group here. Farewell!


um what?!
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637. VAbeachhurricanes
5:44 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


Are you one of those kids who listens to just rap, pop, or whatever?


No, ACDC, The Who, Rolling Stones, Kansas.
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636. BaltimoreBrian
5:42 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
I'll be back in 2013. Carry on and be good. And be kind. A good group here. Farewell!
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635. caneswatch
5:41 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Never heard of it.


Are you one of those kids who listens to just rap, pop, or whatever?
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634. BaltimoreBrian
5:40 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


whys that odd?


Because the satellite shots look like a mesoscale storm system heading offshore from NC. It's just upper level clouds though.
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633. Skyepony (Mod)
5:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
pcola57~ I just got in from camping at Bear Creek Festival in NFL. It was 28ºF Friday night. Saw Trey lastnight.

That storm was going on in the Bearing Sea when I left, Masters did a blog on it. There was some great footage on Youtube. Sounded like a hurricane. Made landfall like 4 days ago.
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632. NJcat3cane
5:36 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


Not alright, but I heard Roger Waters' The Wall show is doing a second go-around. Now that's something worth seeing.


seen that about 10 years back or so..and it was AMAZING
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631. VAbeachhurricanes
5:34 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


Not alright, but I heard Roger Waters' The Wall show is doing a second go-around. Now that's something worth seeing.


Never heard of it.
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630. caneswatch
5:33 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Backstreet is back, alright?


I don't give two you-know-whats about them, but Roger Waters' The Wall show is doing a second go-around. Now that's something worth seeing.
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629. VAbeachhurricanes
5:30 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:

Now you see there's more to me than weather.


It's about time! ;)
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628. VAbeachhurricanes
5:29 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:
Guess who's back?


Backstreet is back, alright?
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627. VAbeachhurricanes
5:28 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Odd. No precip.



whys that odd?
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626. caneswatch
5:27 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Good to see the old crew is getting back together for the winter season.


'Tis the season LOL
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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