Quiet in the tropics; major severe weather outbreak in the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2007

A low pressure system (99L) over the Gulf of Mexico has moved ashore this morning near the Texas/Louisiana border. Lake Charles, LA long-range radar shows some heavy rain showers are moving ashore, but flooding problems are not expected.

A low pressure system has developed along the coast of Southeast Florida this morning. Long range radar out of Melbourne shows a little bit of organized banding of the associated rain showers. However, this system is headed northeastward out to sea. Wind shear is 20-30 knots over the low, and will increase, so development into a tropical depression is not expected.

Severe weather outbreak today and Thursday
A major severe weather outbreak is likely today over the Midwestern U.S., due to an intensifying low pressure system that is drawing in plenty of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (thanks in part to tropical disturbance 99L). Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches have already been posted, and today's severe weather has the potential to generate strong, long-track tornadoes. The activity shifts to Chicago and the Great Lakes region tomorrow. Follow the action on our new interactive tornado map, which will post the tornado damage reports as they are received. The new feature also allows one to plot all the historical tornado activity back to 1950 for any region in the U.S.



Jeff Masters

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1000. georgia325
1:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Canewhisperer where's your family at in Indiana? I'm originally from Ft. Wayne. I too indeed hope they fare well this afternnon
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999. weathers4me
12:58 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Mornin all. Any rain headed for central FL? I see on radar that the panhandle is getting some good rain. I also see something off the E FL coast.

Link
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998. TheCaneWhisperer
12:57 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
New Blog
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996. cattlebaroness
12:54 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Was this system the one that Dr. M. mentioned that would just go out to sea?
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995. HurricaneGeek
12:51 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
The new invest according to SSD site:

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994. pcola
12:50 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Good Morning everyone. Lots and I mean lots of rain here in Pensacola. One of our decorative ponds is overflowing and the other (more under cover) has gained 2 to 3 inches of water. Around 6am the rain was coming straight out of the south at about 60 degrees.
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993. beell
12:49 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
MUCAPE
Most Unstable Layer
Might as well throw that one out there to.
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992. weatherg8r
12:49 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Morning Pub
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991. NEwxguy
12:49 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
984. TampaSpin 12:43 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
947. Eyewall911 7:05 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.

LOOK at message 947 from Eyewall911....Makes no sence or reasoning to make statement like that.

good morning,
Tampa,the usual troll comment to stir the pot.
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989. HurricaneGeek
12:48 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
But the navysite dosent have it up yet. It is located over water E of Cape Canaverial.
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988. beell
12:48 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Alway a crap shoot. CAPE was higher South,
Dynamics higher north yesterday.

Hi-CAPE/Low Shear, Low Helicity = Tornado
Lo-CAPE/Hi Shear, Hi Helicity = Tornado
Anything in between = Tornado
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987. HurricaneGeek
12:47 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
According to the tropical atlantic satellite site there is a new invest.
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986. DrMickey
12:47 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
MLCAPE: Mixed Layer Convective Available Potential Energy.

Thanks, StormW and Beell
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985. NoNamePub
12:47 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Goog Morning all!
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984. TampaSpin
12:43 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
947. Eyewall911 7:05 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.


LOOK at message 947 from Eyewall911....Makes no sence or reasoning to make statement like that.
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982. thelmores
12:39 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Man, the end of the season blows..... no blobs to watch, now its back to watchin blobs on the models! LOL

Heard about the two people killed in the Trailor, very tragic indeed!

Hopefully we will have no more loss of life with twisters today!
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979. beell
12:38 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Thank ya StormW!
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977. beell
12:30 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Convective Area Potential Energy
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976. TheCaneWhisperer
12:29 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Looks like I will as well Tampa. Gotta watch out for Mom!
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975. beell
12:29 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Doc-Maybe they mean MU?
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973. DrMickey
12:27 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG

Beell? MLCAPE? I get the joules/kilo part.
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972. TampaSpin
12:26 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Canewhip
Mother lives in Southern Indiana.....got a radar fixed over her house........lol
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971. TheCaneWhisperer
12:23 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Morning All!

What are anyones thoughts on the Moderate Risk area today? Looks like their talking 70mph winds possibly with tornado's. Wondering what the likelyhood is of that occurring? I have alot of family in Northern Indiana. Any input is greatly appreciated.
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970. cattlebaroness
12:23 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Morning folks. Hope everyone made it through the evening storms safely. Texas is in the clear for the next few days.
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969. beell
12:23 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Part of a repost from another blogger
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
...TN VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...
THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT FROM THE SW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH...WRN
TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
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968. aubiesgirl
12:18 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
gator.the rain is nice!!! hopefully ya'll get some too
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966. REELHOUSE
12:13 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Could you guys pleeeeeese do a rain dance for us here in SC? Its been so cloudy here this morning and yesterday evening that daylight looked like night....and only a Tr of rain reported. Thxs we appreciate it! :)
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964. weatherg8r
12:10 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Tampaspin...I am in Gainesville.
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963. weathermanwannabe
12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Tampa, I'm looking at the same radar image (from Bonifay N of PC) and it does look like some squirly weather headed this way.......
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962. TampaSpin
12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
weatherg8r where you live at..we have not had any rain here in Tampa either.
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961. weatherg8r
12:07 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Aubie I am jealous....we haven't gotten the first drop. It is looking better over the next day or two. Usually rains in time for Saturdays!
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960. TampaSpin
12:06 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Im seeing some strong echo's over the water coming near Panama City.....no warnings posted yet.
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959. aubiesgirl
12:03 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
nice steady rain here in the panhandle
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958. weatherg8r
12:02 PM GMT on October 18, 2007
Morning Aubie
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957. aubiesgirl
11:59 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Good morning all..JP Gator..StormW
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956. TampaSpin
11:52 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
947. Eyewall911 7:05 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.


These are really your thoughts....Don't think i would want you living anywhere close to me!!
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955. weathermanwannabe
11:44 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Morning Folks....Tropics quiet and some light rain starting to fall in the Florida Panhandle this morning.....Saw a tornado warning this am near Mobile and don't know/expect that type of weather in the Panhandle today (although NWS has forecasted the possibility of some stronger storms tommorow)...That front seems to moving pretty fast so things should clear out around here by tommorow....
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953. gulfcoastdweller
11:38 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
morning gang....
pouring rain here in Biloxi, Ms this morning, a tornado has touched down in Jackson County ( Vancleave area ), some cars have been over turned and some homes have been damaged, lots of tress down.......waiting for more updates, they'll know more when daylight comes
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952. stoormfury
11:29 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Storm
i was really looking at 50W although the one at 35W is beginning to flare up
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951. BajaALemt
11:25 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Morning folks......

Dakster, NOT on the 'dirty side' ANYWAY :)
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950. weatherg8r
11:20 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Morning Storm...morning all.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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