WINTER REALLY IS COMING

By: Steve Gregory, 10:31 PM GMT on November 14, 2016

*** DUE TO FAMILY EMERGENCY - UNSURE WHEN NEXT BLOG WILL BE POSTED *****

STEVE

*****

MONDAY: 14-NOV-16 / 4:30 PM CST
Next Update MONDAY NOV 5TH

PATTERN CHANGE TO BRING COLDER - STORMIER CONDITIONS

A shift towards more seasonable conditions will take hold later this week as a major storm system first brings warmer Temps to the central and eastern US, with much colder Temps following the storm/fron...

US Temps mjo Teleconnections Stratospheric Warming

Updated: 4:38 PM GMT on November 27, 2016

THE END IS NEAR…

By: Steve Gregory, 8:30 PM GMT on November 07, 2016

MONDAY: 07-NOV-16 / 2:30 PM CST
Next Update MONDAY NOV 14TH

PROGRESSIVE BUT RETROGRADING FLOW PATTERN TO SEND TEMPS DOWN

The 'September in November' warmth that has dominated much of the nation will slowly retreat over the coming 2 weeks, with the most substantial lowering of average Temperatures towards seasonal norms starting next week - and likely continuing thru the remainder of the month.

As expected, the strong, zonal...

US Temps Teleconnections

Updated: 5:02 PM GMT on November 09, 2016

RECORD WARM PATTERN REVERSAL AHEAD

By: Steve Gregory, 8:48 PM GMT on October 31, 2016


MONDAY: 31-OCT-16 / 3:50 PM CDT Next Update MONDAY NOV 7TH

MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE BY MID MONTH

The unusual warmth across much of the nation will begin fading away during Week 2, with potentially colder than normal Temps across the south central and SE US and near normal across the northern tier of states while Temps shift to mostly above normal in the west. Whether the expected pattern change will persist on into DEC, however, is not at...

US TEMPS winter outlook Teleconnections SST Anomalies

UNUSUALLY WARM PATTERN MAY REVERSE IN MID NOVEMBER

By: Steve Gregory, 8:13 PM GMT on October 24, 2016

MONDAY: 24-OCT-16 / 3:15 PM CDT
Next Update MONDAY OCT 31ST

MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE HINTED AT BY GLOBAL MODELS

Potentially some of the warmest, national ‘Same Week’ average Temps in at least 20 years may finally come to an end by Week 3 - at least temporarily - as recent Global ensemble model runs call for a strong reversal in teleconnections in 10-15 days. Still, while seasonal forcing alone argues for significant pattern change, po...

US Temps La Nina mjo Teleconnections

Updated: 8:31 PM GMT on October 24, 2016

UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO CONTINUE INTO NOVEMBER

By: Steve Gregory, 1:29 PM GMT on October 20, 2016

THURSDAY: 20-OCT-16 / 8:30 AM CDT
Next Update MONDAY OCT 24TH

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE AS INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC FLOW DEVELOPS

The unseasonably warm Temps east of the Continental Divide will continue into early NOV, though anomalies will not be as high as they’ve been during the past week.

The strong TROFs that have been coming onshore in the west every 3-5 days (with Precip actually reaching the LAX basin a few days...

US TEMPS SST Anomalies La Nina

Updated: 10:13 PM GMT on October 20, 2016

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Tropical and Seasonal / Severe Winter Weather Forecasts

About SteveGregory

Professional Forecaster experience since 1977, concentrating in Aviation, Tropical and Long Range forecasting.

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