Hurricane Adrian on the decline in intensity

By: TropicalAnalystwx13 , 1:50 PM GMT on June 11, 2011

After peaking as a 140 mph/946 mb. Category 4 hurricane, Adrian is on the rapid decline in intensity this morning. I will be the first to say, my forecast went horribly, horribly gone on guessing what Adrian would peak as. My forecast from two/three days ago called for a peak as a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane, because of very dry air to his north and northwest. However, when Adrian strengthened very quickly, he was able to build up his eye-wall to keep all dry air out. For a time on Thursday, I thought my forecast would come true. Dry air was getting into the eye-wall, and the northern part of it was being disrupted. However, Adrian forced the dry air out, built its eye-wall, and began strengthening once again. That is all in the past now, and we still have to focus on the storm, which is now only a borderline Category 1 hurricane, with 75 mph winds, and a minimum central pressure of 988 mb. Water Vapor satellite loops reveal that there is a large amount of dry air surrounding Adrian, which is pretty much evaporating the outer bands of the hurricane. Helping kill Adrian is sea surface temperatures, which were 30 °C the past few days. But now, Adrian is entering an area of cooler waters, barely 26 °C, which is what's needed to support tropical cyclones.

Forecast for Adrian
Given the hurricanes satellite appearance and unfavorable environment, Adrian is not going to last much longer. I'll give it to the next advisory to be a hurricane, but after that, weakening into a tropical storm is expected. With Adrian being an annular hurricane, I would have expected the storm to last longer, since annular hurricanes usually can sustain themselves longer in an unfavorable environment which would otherwise destroy a regular storm. CIMSS Tropical Cyclones show that wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots, but is expected to increase as the storm heads west, then northwest. I will say though, it is impressive having a Category 4 hurricane for the "A" storm in the Pacific, the last this occurred was a decade ago, 2001's Hurricane Adolph, which reached 145 mph. The last time a major hurricane was recorded as an "A" storm in the Pacific, was just a year later, with 2002's Hurricane Alma. Here is my forecast for Adrian in 12-hr intervals:

Current: 75 mph/988 mb.
12-hr: 50 mph/TS
24-hr: 35 mph/TD
36-hr: Remnant Low
48-hr: Dissipated


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

4. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:05 PM GMT on June 11, 2011
Quoting cyclonekid:
Adrian kinda did look like Adolph in some shape, form, or fashion.


I think you know what Adrian looked like haha

What? No "thanks" or anything? Just kidding. :P

Yeah, I think I would remember what Adrian looks like, considering it was only yesterday that it was a Cat. 4, haha.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35756
3. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:04 PM GMT on June 11, 2011
Quoting ajcamsmom2:

No problem. It's nice to see people that actually read what I write. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35756
2. cyclonekid
8:42 PM GMT on June 11, 2011
Adrian kinda did look like Adolph in some shape, form, or fashion.


I think you know what Adrian looked like haha
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1752
1. ajcamsmom2
2:58 PM GMT on June 11, 2011
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2577

Viewing: 4 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

TropicalAnalystwx13's WunderBlog

About TropicalAnalystwx13

Small town USA guy. Politics nerd. Soccer fan. Interested in eyewalls, deformation zones, and hook echos.

TropicalAnalystwx13's Recent Photos

I Stand With France
9-11-01 Remember
USA Soccer
We will never forget