Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).
By: hcubed, 3:58 AM GMT on March 27, 2012
From a reliable source, NASA:
"...For most of the winter of 2011–2012, the Bering Sea has been choking with sea ice. Though ice obviously forms there every year, the cover has been unusually extensive this season. In fact, the past several months have included the second highest ice extent in the satellite record for the Bering Sea region, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)..."
*** Alright - another second greatest ever record ***
"...NSIDC data indicate that ice extent in the Bering Sea for most of this winter has been between 20 to 30 percent above the 1979 to 2000 average. February 2012 had the highest ice extent for the area since satellite records started. As of March 16, National Weather Service forecasters noted that all of the ice cover in the Bering Sea was first year ice, much of it new and thin—which is typical in the Bering Sea
The accumulation of ice this season has largely been fueled by persistent northerly winds blowing from the Arctic Ocean across the Bering Strait. The local winter weather has been dominated by low-pressure systems—with their counterclockwise circulation—that have brought extensive moisture up from the south to coastal and interior Alaska, while sending cold winds down across the sea to the west.
Those winds pushed Arctic sea ice toward the narrow, shallow strait, where it piled up and formed an ice arch that blocked the flow. As arches fail because of wind stress, large floes of sea ice can move south into the Bering Sea. Ice also has piled up on the north side of St. Lawrence Island, near the mouth of the strait.
South of the strait and the island, those same winds push cold air and cold surface waters to lower latitudes, allowing the ice to grow farther south than usual. The widespread and persistent ice cover in the Bering Sea has posed significant problems for fisherman and for supply ships in the region. The weather driving the ice also brought extreme snowfall events to many parts of Alaska this winter.
The Bering Sea stands in stark contrast to the rest of the Arctic ice cap, where sea ice extent was below average in both January and February. Ice cover was down drastically on the Atlantic Ocean side of the Arctic, including the Kara, Barents, and Laptev Seas, where air temperatures were 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above the norm..."
*** So the counters will latch on to the last paragraph - and say that the warmth ABOVE the norm is a result of CAGW. But when asked about the extreme ice conditions, well, that's just weather.
Let's see if the main post mentions this...
Answer - yes.
Today's entry of the main blog (at 2:09 PM GMT on March 28, 2012) did mention this - in the typical counter way:
"...February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979..."
So kudos to Dr Masters for at least MENTIONING a record.
If the ice is at a new "lowest" level, there's usually no mention of "Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979", while the disclaimer MUST be attached to any "highest" levels.
Gotta keep that unprecidented meme alive...
By: hcubed, 7:50 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
840 AM PDT THU MAR 22 2012
...RECORD SETTING LATE SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF WILLAMETTE AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS...
A FRONT STALLED OVER SOUTH LANE AND NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTED NORTH A BIT BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE CASCADES. HEAVY PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NORTH OF THE FRONT SNOW LEVELS WERE VERY LOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW THE RESULT IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY YESTERDAY...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY INTO CLARK COUNTY OVERNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW ALSO FELL IN THE CASCADES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES.
WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW...MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED DOWNED POWER LINES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION...MANY TREE BRANCHES HAVE BEEN BROKEN BY THE WEIGHT OF THE WET SNOW. THIS EVENT WILL BE ONE THAT LOCAL RESIDENTS WILL NOT SOON FORGET.
ACROSS CITY OF PORTLAND... 0.5 TO 3 INCHES...BUT 3 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER HILLS OF THE METRO AREA.
AT PORTLAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE (NEAR THE AIRPORT)...
*** STORM TOTAL.... 0.5 INCH OF SNOW
THIS IS A RECORD LATEST MEASURED SNOWFALL AT THE AIRPORT.
** 2012 MARCH 22 0.5 INCH *** NEW RECORD ***
1946 MARCH 15 0.5 INCH PREVIOUS RECORD
RECORDS SHOW 0.4 INCH IN 1995 AND 0.3 INCH IN 1965...BUT BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WERE SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATIONS.
HERE IS HOW IT COMPARES TO OTHER LATE SEASON SNOW EVENTS (WITH STORM TOTALS).
** 2012 MARCH 21-22 0.5 INCHES
1950 MARCH 10 0.8 INCH
1951 MARCH 3-10 12.9 INCHES
1956 MARCH 5 1.8 INCHES
1960 MARCH 2-3 2.6 INCHES
1989 MARCH 1-2 2.0 INCHES
OF NOTE... DOWNTOWN PORTLAND HAS RECEIVED MEASURABLE SNOW IN APRIL...WITH THE LARGEST EVENT OCCURRING IN 1936 WHEN 5.2 INCHES FELL ON APRIL 1...WITH THAT STORM TOTAL OF 6.8 INCHES (MARCH 28 THROUGH APRIL 1). THE LATEST THAT DOWNTOWN HAS RECEIVED MEASURABLE SNOW WAS APRIL 14 1924...WHEN 0.1 INCH OF SNOW FELL IN DOWNTOWN PORTLAND.
ON AVERAGE...PORTLAND AIRPORT RECEIVES 0.2 INCH OF SNOW IN MARCH. SNOWFALL RECORDS AT THE AIRPORT DATE BACK TO 1940. DOWNTOWN RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.
CITY OF EUGENE... 6 TO 10 INCHES...HEAVIEST IN SOUTH HILLS.
AT THE EUGENE AIRPORT...
***STORM TOTAL.... 7.5 INCHES OF SNOW
THIS IS THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM TO STRIKE THE EUGENE AREA THIS LATE IN THE WINTER SEASON. HERE IS HOW IT COMPARES TO OTHER RECORD LATE SNOWFALLS OF THE WINTER SEASON (WITH STORM TOTALS).
** 2012 MARCH 20-21 7.5 INCHES
1951 MARCH 5-7 7.6 INCHES
1916 MARCH 3-4 13.7 INCHES
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT THE LATEST MEASURED SNOWFALL. THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE WINTER SEASON AT THE EUGENE AIRPORT...
1911 APRIL 13 0.3 INCH
ON AVERAGE...EUGENE RECEIVES 0.5 INCH OF SNOW IN MARCH. RECORDS FOR EUGENE DATE BACK TO 1892.
AROUND THE CITY OF SALEM...2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW FELL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE HILLS IN SOUTH SALEM.
AT THE SALEM AIRPORT...
****STORM TOTAL.... 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW
THIS IS THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM TO STRIKE SALEM THIS LATE IN THE WINTER SEASON. HERE IS HOW IT COMPARES TO OTHER RECORD LATE SNOWFALLS OF THE WINTER SEASON (WITH STORM TOTALS).
** 2012 MARCH 21-22 2.5 INCHES
1951 MARCH 5-9 9.6 INCHES
1960 MARCH 3-4 8.5 INCHES
BUT THIS IS NOT THE LATEST MEASURED SNOWFALL. THE LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENTS OF THE WINTER SEASON AT SALEM AIRPORT...
1920 MARCH 31 1.5 INCHES
ON AVERAGE...SALEM RECEIVES 0.3 INCH OF SNOW IN MARCH. RECORDS FOR SALEM DATE BACK TO 1892.
I like this statement "...THIS EVENT WILL BE ONE THAT LOCAL RESIDENTS WILL NOT SOON FORGET..."
Of course, the "counters" will simply add this extreme weather to "The List", in support of the CAGW THEORY.
Too bad, because according to some scientists, children in the future may not know what snow is.
Never mind. That was in England, and that statement was made a few years ago.
Since then, it's only gotten worse - much worse...
Yet the "heat counters" keep racking up the "score".
From today's main blog:
"The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity..."
Amazing how the spring heat wave is pushed at us "proof" of CAGW, while during that same ten-day period, a record snowfall occured in Oregon.
In about a month or two, we'll revisit this, for sure - because when the experts are done examining the data, they'll probably find that this heat wave wasn't caused by "global warming" either.
By: hcubed, 10:29 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
(CNN) -- A winter storm packing heavy snow and gusty winds forced authorities to close 180 miles of Interstate 40 in northern Arizona on Sunday until further notice.
The road was closed in both directions about 6:30 a.m. (9:30 a.m. ET), said David Beck, dispatch supervisor for the Flagstaff office of the Arizona Highway Patrol. The closure stretched roughly from Kingman in western Arizona to eastward to Winslow, including the city of Flagstaff, he said.
Portions of Interstate 17 south of Flagstaff were also closed, according to the Arizona Department of Transportation's website, as were several state roads.
As of 9 a.m. Sunday, Flagstaff -- with an elevation of about 6,900 feet -- had received 10 to 14 inches of snow, according to the National Weather Service. The city of Prescott had received 8 to 12 inches. Areas above 7,000 feet could see up to 22 inches, according to the weather service.
Several crashes and reports of stuck vehicles had been reported as of Sunday morning, Beck said, with one person sustaining minor injuries on I-40.
The Flagstaff Unified School District said its schools would be closed Monday. Northern Arizona University said its Flagstaff campus would be closed Monday, and Coconino Community College said its Flagstaff and Page campuses would be closed.
Much of Arizona remained under a winter weather advisory or a winter storm warning on Sunday. The warning was in effect until midnight Sunday. In addition to heavy snow, wind gusts of up to 30 mph were forecast for the Flagstaff area, according to the National Weather Service..."
***And not a single mention of the evil CO2, or CAGW. Something's wrong.***
By: hcubed, 9:43 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Last post mentioned this years winter didn't seem to be a result of CO2 as a major driver.
This post mentions another "inconvenient truth" - the fact that some areas of the world are receiving massive amounts of snow.
Naturally, those "counters" will use any single extreme weather event to further their argument of CAGW - this story was no exception.
"...Alaska's largest city eyes snow record
By RACHEL D'ORO
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) -- A near-record snowfall this winter has buried Anchorage neighborhoods, turning streets into snow-walled canyons and even collapsing some roofs.
But some residents are hoping for more, at least another 3.3 inches. Then they could say they made it through the winter when the nearly 60-year record of 132.6 inches was broken.
"I want it destroyed," resident Melissa Blair said. "I want to see another foot and knock that record out of the park."
Even by Alaska standards, this winter is unusual for the hardy residents of the state's largest city. But extreme weather isn't just affecting Alaska, it has also hit the Lower 48.
The first three months of 2012 have seen twice the normal number of tornadoes. And 36 states set daily high temperature records Thursday. The Lower 48 had its fourth warmest winter on record, while Alaska had its coldest January on record.
Two different weather phenomenon - La Nina and its northern cousin the Arctic Oscillation - are mostly to blame, meteorologists say. Global warming could also be a factor because it is supposed to increase weather extremes, climate scientists say.
*** Meteorologists said no, Climate Scientists say yes (well, "could" and "supposed to" - these are strong statements from the Climate Scientists).***
"When you start to see the extreme events become more common, that's when you can say that it is a consequence of global warming," University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver said.
Nearly 11 feet of snow has fallen on Anchorage this winter, forcing the city to haul away at least 250,000 tons of snow - or around 500 million pounds - to its six snow disposal sites.
The sites are close to overflowing. State and city crews are working around the clock to clear almost 2,500 miles of roads.
City street maintenance superintendent Dan Southard said the 125,000 truckloads of snow hauled by city crews would stack up to almost 1,200 feet if they were dumped onto a football field surrounded by walls.
That's not even counting the loads disposed of by state crews.
"It's an enormous task," Southard said of this winter's challenges.
This winter is just fine with Kenny Withrow, owner of Popeye's Services, a snow-clearing outfit. He has been working well into the night, clearing driveways and parking lots and charging $350 to $1,200 for each roof clearing job.
Last year, he cleared maybe five roofs. This year, he's done as many as 50, and the phone calls from worried residents keep coming. Withrow enjoys the snow because of its beauty and the snowmobiling adventures it makes possible.
He does wonder if it's ever going to end, though. Still, he's rooting for more of the white stuff. There's that record to break.
"We're so close," he said. "We might as well just get it done."
To date, the city has received 129.4 inches of snow this winter, compared with the historical average of 69.5 inches. No more is expected in the coming days, but snow can typically fall well into April, which averages four inches.
*** Wow. Almost TWICE the historical average of snowfall. Maybe they could ship some to England. After all, children there may not know what snow is. ***
National Weather Service meteorologist Dave Strickland said it's hard to predict whether the city will win the big-snow crown.
"Bring it on," said Strickland, an enthusiastic outdoorsman. "We could break the record every year and I'd be happy. But there probably would be a lot of unhappy people."
Count Nick Wiederholt among them. He's sick of snow and cold and can't wait for the long, warm days of summer. But first, he's bracing for the mess ahead when the snow melts.
"I always say I'll survive winter if I can get a good summer," he said.
By: hcubed, 4:33 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Taken from here:
What Happened to all the Snow?
Jan. 19, 2012: Winter seems to have been on hold this year in some parts of the United States. Snowfall has been scarce so far in places that were overwhelmed with the white stuff by the same time last year.
Here's a prime example. "The Mammoth Mountain ski resort in the Sierras of California got more than 200 inches of snow last December," says NASA climatologist Bill Patzert of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "This December they got less than 10 inches."
Temperatures have flip-flopped too. There were 583 new heat records broken in the first five days of January in the US.
"It's 86 degrees in Los Angeles today [Wednesday, January 4th]," says Patzert. "Everyone thinks it's July! In fact, it's warmer today in LA than it was on July 4th last year. And it's been in the 60s and 70 even in the Dakotas lately."
On January 5th in Bismark, North Dakota, it was 62 -- a marked departure from their average 23 degrees for that day. It was 66 in Denver, Colorado, where it's usually in the low 40s on that date.
What's going on? Patzert identifies two culprits: La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation.
*** See? No mention of the evil CO2, no blame to Big Oil, nobody being called "deniers", no-one reciting "The List" - just observing natural processes.***
First of all," he explains, "we are experiencing a La Niña pattern of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This pushes the jet stream and the cold arctic air northward."
"On top of that, this year's Arctic Oscillation has been stronger."
The Arctic Oscillation is a see-sawing pressure difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes. When the pressure difference is high, a whirlpool of air forms around the North Pole. Last year, the whirlpool motion was weaker, allowing cold air to escape from the polar regions and head southward to the US.
"This year the whirlpool has been more forceful, corralling the cold air and keeping it nearer the pole. That has reinforced the La Niña impact."
While the corralling action of the Arctic Oscillation has kept snow away from parts of the contiguous United States, it has brought extra snow to places inside the whirlpool.
"The strong positive AO has kept the Jet Stream north," says Patzert. "Snow-delivering storm tracks are pounding Alaska."
Cordova, a small coastal town about 150 miles east of Anchorage, has been especially hard hit. More than 18 feet of snow has fallen so far this winter. Snow dumps are full, roads have turned into one-lane "snow canyons," and National Guardsmen have been sent in to help residents dig out.
Even heartbroken snow-lovers of the lower 48 don't want that much white stuff. But they'd like some.
"Be patient," advises Patzert. "We haven't gotten to the heart of winter. Hold off on selling the new dogsled. There's plenty of time for snow. It ain't over till the Siberian Huskies sing."
*** Oh well, maybe they'll find some other extreme weather to tie to CAGW (and some way to blame Big Oil along the way). ***
By: hcubed, 12:43 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
BOSTON (AP) — Evergreen Solar is asking a bankruptcy judge for permission to walk away from its former plant in Devens.
The company, which received tens of millions in state aid before shuttering its facilities last year and moving its manufacturing operations to China, filed the notice in federal bankruptcy court in Delaware on Monday.
Interested parties including MassDevelopment, which helps finance and develop new projects, have until Friday to respond to the filing.
A spokeswoman for MassDevelopment declined comment Tuesday, saying the filing speaks for itself.
Evergreen received more than $20 million in grants and $11 million in tax and lease initiatives from Massachusetts. That doesn’t include other tax benefits and millions in upgrades to roads and utilities around the plant.
Gov. Deval Patrick championed Evergreen Solar early in his first term.
Once again, the taxpayer is on the hook (this time, in Massachusetts) for millions paid to a "green" company.
Every time one of these gov't funded solar plants declares bankruptcy, they give the same reason: an inability to keep up with China's manufacturing process.
And they GAVE their operations to their largest competition.
By: hcubed, 1:54 AM GMT on March 11, 2012
The "green" movement is once again wanting the earth to go dark for one hour. This year's Earth Hour will be on March 31, 2012, at 8:30 pm (local). This means that each time zone will have it's own hour (traveling around the earth like a "wave").
How effective will this darkening of the earth be? Since this is being done to convince people that the "evil" CO2 is the sole cause of all the earth's extreme weather events, let's look at how much CO2 will be eliminated.
Let’s look at the results of last year’s effort, specifically in the province of Ontario, Canada.
Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) reported that that on March 26th, 2011, between 8:30pm and 9:30pm, due to conservation action during the last episode of Earth Hour, province-wide demand for electricity fell by 360 megawatts or 2.1% compared to a typical Saturday evening in late March.
Let’s simply assume that all 360 MWh of power demand was actually eliminated, rather than being merely postponed. Since it would be difficult to quantify the impact of time-shifting household activities, let’s just be generous and ignore it altogether.
How big a deal is 360 MWh? At Ontario’s blended average retail electricity price of 7.74 cents per kWh, that 360 MWh of reduced consumption amounts to a province-wide total cash savings of $24,864. One could, perhaps, compare that savings to the money spent promoting Earth Hour in Ontario by the WWF, various levels of governments, and numerous corporate partners, to say nothing of the costs incurred by the individual participants. But I don’t imagine that would be a favorable comparison.
So cost savings aside, how big an impact did Ontario’s Earth Hour have on the province’s CO2 emissions? Let’s ignore the extra emissions generated by people who traveled to and from public gatherings, or by those who lit paraffin wax candles (each of which emits about as much fossil-fuel derived CO2 per hour as a compact fluorescent light bulb). For simplicity, we’ll just focus on the CO2 emissions from the electricity that was saved.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), non-baseload electricity emits an average of 690 g of CO2 per kWh into the atmosphere. So, by simple math, by conserving 360 MW of electric power during Earth Hour, Ontarians reduced their CO2 emissions by a total of 248 metric tons.
248 tons. That sounds pretty impressive, doesn’t it? And it isn’t really that difficult to achieve - in fact, it’s even kind of fun. Perhaps we could just have a few more Earth Hours each year, and have some real impact on our emissions reduction targets. So, how many Earth Hours would it take? Once every quarter? One per month? Weekly?
In 2007, Ontario introduced its Climate Change Action Plan action to reduce total GHG emissions. This action plan established an annual GHG reduction target “6% below 1990 levels by 2014, a reduction of 61 megatons relative to business-as-usual” (pg 6). By eliminating 248 tons of CO2 emissions, Earth Hour achieved 0.000407% of this target.
Or, looked at another way, it would take nearly 246,000 Earth Hours to achieve the province’s annual emissions reduction target. Unfortunately, there are only 8760 hours in a year, so it would require a little more than 28 years of sitting in the dark to make good on a single year’s emissions reduction target. The WWF certainly isn’t kidding when it asks Earth Hour participants to sustain their actions “beyond the hour.”
If you look at it another way, the switch to DST has the same effect - once per year. The "spring forward" would save the same amount of CO2 as the "earth hour" does (that 248 metric tons). Of course, the "fall back" ADDS that much CO2 (248 metric tons) to the earth, leveling it out.
One more thing - how many of you enjoyed your every-four-years Leap Day? That "extra day" added 5,952 metric tons of CO2 to the earth.
By: hcubed, 8:07 AM GMT on March 10, 2012
Scientists are seeing that the effects of UHI are changing our local climates significantly, and the plants have figured this out.
So, if CAGW is creating a longer season as well, the same effects would also be seen.
"...Mid-Atlantic suburbs can expect an early spring thanks to the heat of the big city.
If you’ve been thinking our world is more green than frozen these days, you’re right. A recent study has found that spring is indeed arriving earlier – and autumn later – in the suburbs of Baltimore and Washington, D.C. The reason? The urban landscape traps heat in the summer and holds it throughout the winter, triggering leaves to turn green earlier in the spring and to stay green later into autumn. The result is a new, extended growing season.
Scientists used high-resolution satellite data collected over the past 25 years to look at the number days that trees have green leaves in the forests of the Mid-Atlantic. The study found that urban heat islands affected the growing season in areas within 20 miles of the city. As a result, gardeners may have more time to grow their vegetables and plant new varieties.
The longer growing season also has a profound impact on forests. Forests are, in effect, the world’s air filters. Green leaves on trees turn carbon dioxide – a greenhouse gas that traps heat in our atmosphere – into oxygen. Carbon dioxide also helps trees grow since they use energy from the sun to convert the gas into plant matter. A longer growing season could change how quickly forests grow and increase the amount of carbon dioxide taken out of the atmosphere.
“Everything changes when the leaves turn green,” said the study’s lead author Dr. Andrew Elmore of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. “Trees start pumping water into the atmosphere. They take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. They make sugars and build plant tissue. It’s as if the entire landscape goes from exhaling to inhaling.”
The study also pinpointed other factors that influence the timing of spring and autumn in areas outside the influence of urban heat islands, including the elevation of the landscape, proximity to tidal water, and cold air drainage in small valleys.
Not all forests are the same, however, and predicting which forests will grow faster during a longer growing season requires detailed satellite measurements. This study is the first to apply high-resolution satellite data to the problem. “We are trying to understand how forests function so we can understand how they might respond to global warming,” said Dr. Elmore. “With more detailed data, we can do better job of predicting what might happen to a forest impacted by urbanization, for instance.”
The study, “Landscape controls on the timing of spring, autumn, and growing season length in mid-Atlantic forests,” was published in the February issue of Global Change Biology by Andrew Elmore and Steven Guinn of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Burke Minsley of the U.S. Geological Survey, and Andrew Richardson of Harvard University.
Paper is here (can be freely downloaded, 3.25MB pdf).
"...This is an Accepted Article that has been peer-reviewed and approved for publication in the Global Change Biology, but has yet to undergo copy-editing and proof correction. Please cite this article as an “Accepted Article”; doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02521.x
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.