TS Ernesto Disorganized, Yucatan On Alert;TS Florence Weakening

By: hurricaneben , 10:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

While disorganized, Tropical Storm Ernesto could start to get its act together and slowly strengthen over the next couple of days before coming ashore the Yucatan as a borderline hurricane. This is something to watch as flooding is still a concern even if the winds aren't too damaging. Dry air has kept Ernesto from getting its act fully together but it has been in good condition from time to time...as soon as this enters the western Gulf Of Mexico, re-strengthening will be an easier stage. There is no significant concern for the Lower 48, but Mainland Mexico appears to be in line after the Yucatan. Jamaica is also under a tropical storm warning from the NE quadrant as well as watches for the Cayman Islands and Honduras so be prepared for some squally weather if you live in these areas.

TS Florence
Florence has strengthened somewhat last night to a peak of 60 MPH but is now starting to lose its strength and organization. Florence is no threat to anyone, thankfully, as it is expected to completely fall apart before even reaching any land masses. I would worry more about Ernesto than Florence, the way forecast tracks and patterns are looking.

Invest 92E
This should be the least of our concerns as all models take it out to sea but it is organizing in the Eastern Pacific, with a 30% chance of TC formation by Tuesday afternoon, according to the NHC, so I thought I'd briefly mention it.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.