I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 4:36 AM GMT on August 01, 2012
A low pressure system combined with a vigorous tropical wave has been numbered 99L. 99L has a decent amount of convection even with dealing with DMIN. Once 99L feels DMAX convection should increase while 99L is detaching from the ITCZ. This is also affecting 99L but convection should increase after awhile. 99L is gradually organizing and should become TD5 tomorrow. 99L has 25knt winds, 1009mb pressure, and is moving WNW per latest NHC_ATCF.
The environment around 99L is favorable for development. Shear is low, trades are weakening, waters are warm, and the air is relatively moist. An anticyclone is developing over 99L which should help protect it from wind shear. 99L should continue on its WNW movement for the next few days. A closed surface low is lacking and 99L is still attached to the ITCZ. These two factors are keeping 99L from further developing. The ITCZ has been helping convection and it should be interesting to see what it does when it detaches. A well defined surface low should form also when 99L detaches from the ITCZ. Expect some development over the next few days. Once 99L approaches and passes the island we should expect further strengthening. Conditions should be favorable and a deeper convection over the coc. I think a peak of 70mph after the Windward islands is a probable scenario. After that it should track south of the greater Antillies(see my forecast map above). 99L will weaken some due to trade winds but more favorable conditions near the GOM will allow more strengthening. Where 99L finally goes is a mystery right now. Models don't have a good grip on 99L and won't until it is declared TD5. I won't guess/ forecast a track beyond the W Caribbean due to the great uncertainty of the environment ahead. I give 99L a 70% chance of becoming TD5 in the next 48 hours. I will write an update on 99L when needed.
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