- Day Three
acus03 kwns 250828
Storm Prediction Center ac 250827
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017
Valid 271200z - 281200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
thunderstorms will be possible over the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast states on Monday and Monday night.
A low-amplitude flow regime will continue across much of the
contiguous U.S. On Monday and feature a shortwave trough moving from
the mid south into the western Atlantic, while another disturbance
moves from the Desert Southwest to the middle Mississippi Valley. A
larger-scale trough will pivot southeastward across California and the Great
Basin. In the low levels, a surface low will remain over the
Central High plains.
..mid south and lower MS valley...
Episodic isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are
possible within a warm-air-advection regime over the Gulf Coast
states and will likely be ongoing early Monday. The mid-level
impulse over the mid south will become increasingly displaced from
the region and a low level jet is forecast to weaken during the day
with rising 500-mb heights. The focus for concentrated convection
is unclear, which is reflected in models showing variability during
the Monday evening-Tuesday morning period. Despite a gradual
increase in low-level moisture, buoyancy, and ample deep-layer
shear, uncertainty remains high enough regarding thunderstorm
coverage and intensity to not delineate a low-probability severe
risk at this time.