U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 280717 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 280716 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0216 am CDT sun Aug 28 2016 


Valid 301200z - 311200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Tuesday from The 
Rockies eastward into the Mississippi Valley and southward into the 
Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast states. 


..cntrl plains/middle to upper MS valley... 
A low-amplitude upper-level trough is forecast on Tuesday across the 
Great Lakes region with a high-amplitude positively-tilted shortwave 
trough located in the Central Plains. At the surface...a cold front is 
forecast to move southward across the middle to upper MS valley extending 
west-southwestward into the Central Plains. Several clusters of thunderstorms may 
be already developed Tuesday morning. If convective coverage is 
great enough in the Central Plains...outflow with this convection 
would significantly impede destabilization. Moderate instability 
will be more likely further to the northeast from Iowa east-northeastward into northern 
Illinois...southern WI and possibly Southern Lower Michigan by afternoon where stronger 
thunderstorms may develop during the middle to late afternoon. Although 
a marginal severe threat can not be ruled out...the European model (ecmwf)...NAM and 
GFS solutions differ markedly concerning instability...deep layer 
shear and convective coverage from the middle MO valley northeastward into the 
western Great Lakes. Due to uncertainty introduced by differences in the 
models...will not introduce a marginal risk area for this outlook. 


.Broyles.. 08/28/2016 


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