U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 160744 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160743 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0143 am CST Tue Jan 16 2018 

Valid 181200z - 191200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific northwest 
coast Thursday. 

A strong southwesterly mid/upper jet will advance inland from the 
Pacific northwest towards the northern rockies and western Great 
Basin through the period. In response, a downstream ridge will 
settle southeastward across the Desert Southwest, southern/Central 
High plains, and mid Missouri Valley. Meanwhile, a series of 
impulses, from northern Mexico to the Great Lakes, will advance 
east/southeastward and support broadly cyclonic flow across much of 
the eastern US by Thursday night. 

As the aforementioned western-US jet works inland, cold temperatures 
aloft (e.G., 500mb temps around -30 to -32 c) on the poleward flank 
of the jet will Foster convection in the wake of initial heavy 
precipitation late Wednesday. Forecast soundings suggest that 
sufficiently deep buoyancy should materialize for isolated 
thunderstorms near the coast during the day. 

Elsewhere, only initial, modest low-level moisture return will be 
underway along the Lower/Middle Texas coast Thursday into Thursday 
night. As such, a stable, Continental air mass will persist east of 
The Rockies through the period, precluding thunderstorm development. 

.Picca.. 01/16/2018