- Day Three
acus03 kwns 280717
Storm Prediction Center ac 280716
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 am CDT sun Aug 28 2016
Valid 301200z - 311200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Tuesday from The
Rockies eastward into the Mississippi Valley and southward into the
Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast states.
..cntrl plains/middle to upper MS valley...
A low-amplitude upper-level trough is forecast on Tuesday across the
Great Lakes region with a high-amplitude positively-tilted shortwave
trough located in the Central Plains. At the surface...a cold front is
forecast to move southward across the middle to upper MS valley extending
west-southwestward into the Central Plains. Several clusters of thunderstorms may
be already developed Tuesday morning. If convective coverage is
great enough in the Central Plains...outflow with this convection
would significantly impede destabilization. Moderate instability
will be more likely further to the northeast from Iowa east-northeastward into northern
Illinois...southern WI and possibly Southern Lower Michigan by afternoon where stronger
thunderstorms may develop during the middle to late afternoon. Although
a marginal severe threat can not be ruled out...the European model (ecmwf)...NAM and
GFS solutions differ markedly concerning instability...deep layer
shear and convective coverage from the middle MO valley northeastward into the
western Great Lakes. Due to uncertainty introduced by differences in the
models...will not introduce a marginal risk area for this outlook.