- Day Three
acus03 kwns 240732
Storm Prediction Center ac 240731
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 am CDT Sat Mar 24 2018
Valid 261200z - 271200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of
Texas and Oklahoma...
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion
of the southern and Central Plains...
A few severe storms are expected over a portion of the Southern
Plains primarily Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging wind are the main threats.
The upper pattern will be dominated by a slow-moving positive-tilt
synoptic trough over the western states and an upper ridge in the
east. Low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within a southwest
flow regime will advance through the southern and Central Plains
region. At the surface a warm front will extend southeast through OK
and the lower MS valley from a surface low over the Central High
plains. A dryline will extend south from the low through West Texas.
The dryline will mix east during the day, while a cold front moves
south through the Central Plains, eventually merging with dryline
across northwest OK overnight.
..Southern Plains region...
Elevated storms should be ongoing from parts of eastern OK and Kansas
into the middle MS valley in association with a lead impulse. This
activity will shift northeast during the day. A moist boundary layer
with dewpoints from the low 60s f in OK to the upper 60s across
south Texas will reside in warm sector beneath eastern extension of
elevated mixed layer (eml) resulting in a corridor of moderate
instability (1500-2000 j/kg mlcape). Warm air at base of the eml
will probably cap the atmosphere to surface based storms most of the
day. However potential will exist for isolated storms to develop
along dryline by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will become more
likely Monday evening and overnight from northwest Texas to OK along
and ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front and in association
with arrival of the next in series of shortwave troughs. Bulk wind
shear of 45-60 kt will support some supercell structures with
initial storms, but tendency may be for storms to grow upscale into
an mesoscale convective system with time.