U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 240731 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0231 am CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 

Valid 261200z - 271200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of 
Texas and Oklahoma... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion 
of the southern and Central Plains... 

A few severe storms are expected over a portion of the Southern 
Plains primarily Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail and 
damaging wind are the main threats. 


The upper pattern will be dominated by a slow-moving positive-tilt 
synoptic trough over the western states and an upper ridge in the 
east. Low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within a southwest 
flow regime will advance through the southern and Central Plains 
region. At the surface a warm front will extend southeast through OK 
and the lower MS valley from a surface low over the Central High 
plains. A dryline will extend south from the low through West Texas. 
The dryline will mix east during the day, while a cold front moves 
south through the Central Plains, eventually merging with dryline 
across northwest OK overnight. 

..Southern Plains region... 

Elevated storms should be ongoing from parts of eastern OK and Kansas 
into the middle MS valley in association with a lead impulse. This 
activity will shift northeast during the day. A moist boundary layer 
with dewpoints from the low 60s f in OK to the upper 60s across 
south Texas will reside in warm sector beneath eastern extension of 
elevated mixed layer (eml) resulting in a corridor of moderate 
instability (1500-2000 j/kg mlcape). Warm air at base of the eml 
will probably cap the atmosphere to surface based storms most of the 
day. However potential will exist for isolated storms to develop 
along dryline by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will become more 
likely Monday evening and overnight from northwest Texas to OK along 
and ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front and in association 
with arrival of the next in series of shortwave troughs. Bulk wind 
shear of 45-60 kt will support some supercell structures with 
initial storms, but tendency may be for storms to grow upscale into 
an mesoscale convective system with time. 

.Dial.. 03/24/2018