U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 250827 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0227 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017 


Valid 271200z - 281200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms will be possible over the lower Mississippi Valley and 
central Gulf Coast states on Monday and Monday night. 


... 
A low-amplitude flow regime will continue across much of the 
contiguous U.S. On Monday and feature a shortwave trough moving from 
the mid south into the western Atlantic, while another disturbance 
moves from the Desert Southwest to the middle Mississippi Valley. A 
larger-scale trough will pivot southeastward across California and the Great 
Basin. In the low levels, a surface low will remain over the 
Central High plains. 


..mid south and lower MS valley... 
Episodic isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are 
possible within a warm-air-advection regime over the Gulf Coast 
states and will likely be ongoing early Monday. The mid-level 
impulse over the mid south will become increasingly displaced from 
the region and a low level jet is forecast to weaken during the day 
with rising 500-mb heights. The focus for concentrated convection 
is unclear, which is reflected in models showing variability during 
the Monday evening-Tuesday morning period. Despite a gradual 
increase in low-level moisture, buoyancy, and ample deep-layer 
shear, uncertainty remains high enough regarding thunderstorm 
coverage and intensity to not delineate a low-probability severe 
risk at this time. 


.Smith.. 02/25/2017 


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