U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 280727 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0227 am CDT Wednesday Sep 28 2016 


Valid 301200z - 011200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Friday. 


... 
The day 2 large closed low/trough is expected to weaken some on 
Friday...while its center shifts north and the northern periphery of 
this system reaches the southern Great Lakes region by 01/12z. Weak 
height falls are forecast from the southwest to the Great Plains 
attendant to transient midlevel impulses...and as the leading extent 
of a large-scale trough moves inland in the west. 


..eastern NC/Virginia and Ohio... 
Similar to day 2...deep-layer shear will be sufficiently strong to 
support organized storms. However...uncertainties pertaining to the 
distribution of instability...primarily due to lingering day 1/day 2 
cloudiness...preclude the introduction of severe probabilities. 


..Four Corners states to northern rockies and ND... 
Models suggest thunderstorms will be possible from The Four Corners 
states into Wyoming and western Montana...as weak height falls and/or some 
forcing for ascent attendant to weak midlevel impulses track across 
these areas. A separate area of elevated showers and thunderstorms 
could spread across the western half of ND. This latter activity 
will be attendant to a weakening low-amplitude midlevel trough. 
Overall weak instability is expected to preclude a severe-weather 
threat. 


.Peters.. 09/28/2016 


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