U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus01 kwns 190525 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 190524 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1124 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 


Valid 191200z - 201200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
severe thunderstorms will not occur in the United States today. 


..TX coast... 
A mid-level low/trough will slowly progress eastward across 
south-central and into southeast Texas during the period. A maritime 
front located over the shelf waters will move little. However, 
increasing large-scale ascent and moistening above a shallow stable 
layer near the surface, will favor shower development and the risk 
for a few thunderstorms. Models suggest the potential for 
thunderstorms will diminish during the evening. 


Elsewhere, stable conditions will prove hostile to convective 
development. 


.Smith/leitman.. 01/19/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 180310 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 180309 
ncz000-vaz000-180715- 


Mesoscale discussion 0031 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0909 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 


Areas affected...the Outer Banks area of North Carolina into the 
Tidewater area of southeast Virginia 


Concerning...heavy snow 


Valid 180309z - 180715z 


Summary...heavy snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, including 
occasional heavier convective bursts, may develop across the North 
Carolina Outer Banks area, possibly into portions of the Virginia 
Tidewater, during the 11 PM to 4 am time frame. 


Discussion...a significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue 
pivoting east of the southern Appalachians during the next few 
hours. As it does, models suggest that it may take on more of a 
neutral to negative tilt, accompanied by an increasingly better 
defined lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulation center across 
the Piedmont through coastal areas. This appears likely to 
contribute to a consolidating area of upward vertical motion, with 
considerable strengthening by the 05-08z time frame, centered across 
the Outer Banks area of North Carolina. 


Aided by dynamic cooling, cold advection and melting precipitation, 
thermodynamic profiles near immediate coastal areas are expected to 
cool entirely below freezing, supporting snow or a changeover to 
snow. Rapid refresh forecast soundings indicate that lift may 
become maximized within the dendritic growth layer for several 
hours, supporting snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, in the 
presence of precipitable water between .5 and .75 inches. At least 
some convective enhancement appears possible leading to occasional 
heavier bursts of snow, before diminishing/spreading offshore after 
08-09z. 


It is possible similar snow rates could impact portions of the 
southeast Virginia Tidewater, but the most prolonged/heaviest snow 
appears most likely to the south, across the Outer Banks area 
near/north of Cape Hatteras. 


.Kerr.. 01/18/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...akq...mhx... 


Latitude...Lon 36377656 36697547 34977525 35127595 35307683 36377656