Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 091800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/091800z-101800zdec2018//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94b) previously located
near 4.5n 86.7e, is now located near 5.6n 86.8e, approximately 422
nm east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery and a 091527z mhs metop-a 89ghz microwave image
depict a weakly-defined low level circulation (llc) with flaring
scattered convection. Upper level analysis shows a favorable area
with low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear and radial outflow. Sea
surface temperatures (30-32 celsius) in the surrounding waters
remain conducive for future development. Dynamic models are in
general agreement of weak, slow development over the next 48-72hrs
with an overall northward trajectory, but vary on timing and
intensity. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
Nnnn

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