Tropical Weather Discussion

Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 27, 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical
cyclone could be forming. If this trend continues, then a tropical
depression or a tropical storm would likely form later today while
the system moves west-northwestward to westward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system, and watches or warnings could be required at any time.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds,
possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the
Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles
beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday.  An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Some shower activity continues in association with the remnants of
Lisa, located about 600 miles southwest of the Azores.  This system
is expected to merge with a cold front later today before
regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is
drifting westward.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before this system moves
inland over northeastern Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
forecaster Stewart


		
		

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