Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 090600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/090600z-100600zdec2018//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 05p) previously located
near 15.6s 150.0e, is now located near 16.4s 147.0e, approximately
76 nm east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Animated multispectral
imagery shows a disorganized, partially exposed low level
circulation center (LLCC) with a small pocket of deep convection
slightly sheared to the south. A 082327z mhs metop-a 89ghz microwave
image shows a small pocket of deep convection just to the south of
the LLCC. 05p is in a favorable environment with excellent poleward
outflow, sea surface temperatures of 26 to 28 celsius, and low
vertical wind shear (5 to 15 knots). Global models are in good
agreement that the system will track west over the Cape York
peninsula into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1003 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) an area of convection (invest 98p) has persisted near
18.0s 157.1e, approximately 420 nm south-southeast of Willis Island.
Animated multispectral imagery shows a broad low level circulation
(llc), partially obscured by a large cirrus shield. A 090011z gmi
89ghz microwave image shows a very broad circulation with areas of
deep convection to the west and south of the circulation center. 98p
is in a slightly favorable environment with excellent poleward
outflow, sea surface temperatures of 26 to 28 celsius, and
unfavorable vertical wind shear (15 to 20 knots). Global models
generally show the circulation will track west-southwestward with
minimal intensification. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1003 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (3) no other suspect areas.//
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