Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 211118

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 am EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...Special features... 

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building 
southward over the western Atlantic and lower pressures inland 
over Colombia will result in winds increasing to gale force near 
the coast of Colombia at night. The gale is presently ongoing
and will end on 21/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers hsfat2/fznt02 knhc or at website 
www.Hurricanes.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast in 48 hours over the central Atlantic 
from 31n40w to 29n65w. A gale is forecast N of 27n E of 40w with 
seas 16 to 21 ft. 

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 07n12w to 
01n22w. The ITCZ continues from this point to 02s30w to the coast
of South America near 04s38w. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is from 03s to 05n between 06w and 28w. 

Gulf of Mexico...

A stationary front extends from se Louisiana near 29n91w to 27n95w
to the Bay of Campeche near 18n95w. Northerly winds of 10 to 20 
kt and scattered showers are occurring behind the front. Mainly 
10 to 20 kt southeasterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. 
Overcast low stratus and patchy fog is W of the front, as well as
N of 29n E of front. 

The front will lift back north as a warm front today. Another cold 
front will move off the Texas coast late Sat, reach from the 
Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by sun evening and from near SW 
Florida to near 25n89w to the SW Gulf Mon.

Caribbean Sea...

Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region 
supported by widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of 
the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and
perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind 
flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean,
while mainly moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of
the Caribbean.  

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong 
trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of 
Honduras through the next several days. Gale force winds will 
pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north to 
northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to the 
east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before 
dissipating sun through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean... 

The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold 
front that enters the discussion area near 31n27w and extends to 
21n50w to 21n60w to 23n68w. A dissipating stationary front 
continues to 30n73w. A line of clouds and likely embedded showers 
accompany the frontal boundary. Scatterometer data shows a fairly 
large region of 20-25 kt winds north of the boundary to 32n, with 
stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet 
over the eastern and tropical Atlantic supported by surface high 
pressure centered north of the region, and dry air aloft. 

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge will extend along 28n today as high 
pressure currently over Bermuda shifts southward. The center of 
the high pressure will shift E and weaken Fri to between Bermuda 
and the northern Bahamas, ahead of a cold front moving into the 
central Atlantic. The western end of the front will stall and 
dissipate from 25n65w to 31n70w through Sat. Another front will 
move off the NE Florida coast Sun night, before stalling and 
weakening along 27n through Mon.

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