Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1144 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015
06z taf cycle
mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are currently in place all
across northern and central New Mexico. A weak cold front will
spill into eastern New Mexico Sunday morning while high cirrus
clouds increase from the south. Some strong gusts up to 35 to 40kt
out of the north will accompany the passage of this surface
boundary...mostly in east central to northeastern parts of New
Mexico. An increase in moisture and upslope flow as the front
encounters the sangre Delaware cristo mountains could initiate a few
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon...much of which will
produce virga...or rain evaporating before it reaches the ground.
As the front squeezes through canyons and gaps within the Central
Mountain chain it will induce locally gusty winds near ksaf and
kabq prior to midnight Sunday night/Monday morning.
Previous discussion...248 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015...
upper level disturbance will pass to our north tonight and drop a back
door cold front S across the eastern plains. Sunday will be cooler for
most areas but still above normal. Any precipitation Sunday will be
over the sangres and northeast high terrain and be mostly dry. An
upper level system will pass S of our area Monday into Tuesday with
enough instability to create some high terrain showers and storms.
A majority should be dry though. Dry and mild weather Wednesday and
Thursday with increasing winds. Cooler and maybe more unsettled for
late next week and next weekend.
a magnificent day with sunshine and warm late March temperatures.
A short wave trough will pass to our north later tonight and Sunday
and send a back door front down the eastern plains. While most
areas will be a little cooler on Sunday...the NE will experience
the most cooling. Upslope flow along the east slopes of the sangre
Delaware cristos will try to generate a few showers and storms...but the
atmosphere will be too dry for much...if any...rain to reach the
ground. Thus virga showers will be the rule with gusty winds.
A weak upper low near the Baja California California coast Monday will try and draw a
little moisture north into nm early next week...with limited Success.
The western and central mountains have the best shot at isolated
showers and storms...but a majority still may be dry...at least on
Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal with no significant
The winds though will be on the increase Wednesday and Thursday.
Critical fire weather conditions increase as well with Thursday
looking especially dangerous. See the fire weather discussion
below for more details. It will be dry and unseasonably warm for
A disturbance from the northwest will impact the state Friday into next
weekend. A back door front will bring cooling but not much in the
way of precipitation. Temperatures will be near normal. The GFS
tries to bring some decent return flow moisture to the area later
next weekend while the European model (ecmwf) is dry. Chj
... And unstable conditions continue...followed by
increasing potential for critical fire weather middle to late next
Wind will be the only missing ingredient for critical fire weather
conditions in the near term...with a dry...unstable and very warm
airmass over the area. After a very warm day with highs near record
values...humidity recovery will be poor to fair most areas
tonight...although some of the higher elevations will continue to
be good thanks in part to melting snow. A backdoor cold front is
still forecast to slide down the eastern plains tomorrow...but the
5-10 degrees of cooling forecast won't be enough to get
temperatures back down to normal. Sufficient upslope flow along
the east slopes of the sangre Delaware cristo mountains and over the
Raton ridge late Sunday may result in a couple dry showers or
thunderstorms...but lightning activity will be low. Coverage of
convection should increase Monday into Tuesday as an upper level
trough moves mainly south of the area...but the potential for
wetting rain has trended down significantly from previous forecast
cycles. Dry lightning is looking more likely Monday and Tuesday
afternoons...although lightning activity level looks to remain
Well above normal temperatures...very dry and unstable conditions
with increasing winds will characterize the forecast for Wednesday
and Thursday...and may continue into Friday pending the timing of a
backdoor cold front. At this point...Wednesday is looking like the
setup day for Thursday...with near critical conditions and poor to
fair overnight humidity recovery. Windy to very windy conditions
are forecast Thursday as an upper level trough progresses east
across the Great Basin into the central and southern rockies and a
Lee side trough deepens. Forecaster confidence is moderate for the
Wednesday/Thursday periods at this time given decent agreement between the
12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS solutions...with some run-to-run consistency.
Some cooling forecast on Friday with a cold front...but low
confidence on strength and timing. 11