Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1027 am MST Sat Feb 13 2016
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail all areas and taf sites through the
forecast period as a ridge of high pressure flattens over New
Mexico. East of the central mountains...gusty southwest winds
will continue this afternoon with periodic gusts of 25 to 35kt.
Previous discussion...330 am MST Sat Feb 13 2016...
another day of record and near record high temperatures is
expected today...as readings soar 13 to 22 degrees above normal.
A Lee trough will also bring breezy conditions to the eastern
plains. Temperatures will fall a few to 13 degrees on Sunday as
a dry upper level trough and surface cold front cross. After
continued cooling in many areas Monday...a ridge of high pressure
will bring warmer temperatures again Tuesday and Wednesday.
even with the cold front expected Sunday and additional cool air
that should funnel in from the northwest on Monday...high temperatures
will remain well above normal. Northwest winds will become gusty in many
areas Sunday as flow aloft strengthens. The plains should actually
be less breezy do to the loss of the Lee trough that day.
There could be more near record warmth by Wednesday as the next
ridge of high pressure crosses.
Models are still trying to figure out which type of weather system
will cross the Great Basin at the end of the week. The latest
runs depict an upper level trough that would pass mainly to our
northwest. It could trigger a few showers across The Four Corners region
and northern mountains starting as early as Thursday.
However...the main impact will probably be breezy to windy
conditions areawide Thursday...and possibly in the east Friday.
There could be some fire weather concerns as well.
a mainly dry forecast for the week remains and fire weather concerns
include the potential for a few hours of near critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon over the east central and northeast
plains...with more widespread critical conditions on Thursday.
Widespread poor ventilation is expected western and central zones on
Tuesday and most zones on Wednesday.
The upper level ridge over New Mexico will continue to weaken today
and a fast moving disturbance approaches then crosses the state.
With near zonal flow aloft...Lee troughing will strengthen
supporting breezy to windy southwest flow east of the central
mountains. Critical fire weather thresholds will be met for a few
hours this afternoon along and north of Interstate 40. With the
recent lack of precipitation...fuels are drying and Haines values
could reach 5 across the northeast...but conditions remain marginal
enough to preclude a warning. Temperatures will continue to
increase...especially east...with afternoon values 15 to 20 degrees
Another upper level disturbance crosses the state on Sunday as
northwest upper level flow sets up over the state. Temperatures
cool5 to 15 degrees but remain well above average. Surface winds
relax but ventilation remains mostly good to very good except over
the extreme eastern plains where poor to fair values are expected.
Upper level ridging strengthens off the West Coast on Monday and the
axis shifts to the east Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge weakens.
Temperatures change little on Monday...with daily warming Tuesday
and Wednesday. Ventilation will be generally fair to good to start
the work week...but values decrease western and central zones on
Tuesday with widespread poor values expected Wednesday.
An upper level system moves onshore late Wednesday...but extended
models track the system...especially moisture...north of New Mexico.
Winds definitely increase with this system and critical fire weather
thresholds will be met over a fairly broad area mainly east of the
central mountains. Chances of any precipitation are limited to the
northwest highest terrain.