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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1140 PM MDT Sat may 23 2015

06z taf cycle
sluggish low aloft in vicinity of kgjt will slowly lift east-northeastward through 06z
Monday. Pockets of instability/moisture rotating around the low will
impact northern and western nm during period. Rain showers/isolated -tsra to favor the northwest
1/4 of nm during the overnight through Sunday morning. Localized MVFR
ceilings may be encountered and included brief mention at kfmn and
kgup. Mountain top obscurations may also be encountered near the nm/Colorado
line as snow levels gradually lower to around 8500 feet toward
daybreak. Meanwhile...surface dryline has slowly retrograded westward past
several hours but is expected to remain nearly stationary or mix
back toward the east early Sunday morning. Low clouds/fog may
impact krow...but confidence low. Outside northwest areas...VFR
conditions will prevail with MVFR/IFR low clouds near the nm/Texas
line south of Clovis. Expect gusty showers and isolated -tsra
across much of west and north nm Sunday PM...coverage greater
than Saturday PM. Kj


Previous discussion...341 PM MDT Sat may 23 2015...
showers and storms will spread over the area from the northwest
Sunday through Monday night as an upper level trough slowly
crosses. The northwest third of New Mexico should accumulate up to
a half inch of precipitation with locally higher amounts and a few
inches of very high terrain snow. Elsewhere accumulating precipitation
will be spotty. After below normal temperatures for nearly three
weeks...a weak ridge of high pressure will cross Tuesday causing
temperatures to rebound near normal areawide Wednesday.
Thunderstorms Tuesday should be relegated mainly to the northern
mountains and northeast. Then...they should become widespread
again east of the Continental Divide during the latter half of the
week as another slow moving upper level trough crosses from the


a long wave trough will remain entrenched over the western US
through the work week...though the aforementioned short wave
ridge will cross nm Tuesday into Wednesday with a brief period of
warmer temperatures.

Look for thunderstorms to increase in coverage starting tonight
across The Four Corners region as a broad upper level low pressure
system slowly passes from Utah to western Colorado. Meanwhile...a
secondary lobe of low pressure will track southward along the California
coast...before ejecting inland toward nm Sunday. This feature will
weaken and open into a trough while phasing with the broader upper
low exiting northeastward across the central rockies...finally
crossing nm as a fairly deep upper trough on Sunday afternoon and
night. This system probably wont have much moisture to work with
compared to the systems that have crossed recently.

Wetter weather is likely central and east during the latter half
of the week as the next slow moving upper trough crosses from the
west. The slow movement should allow a healthy return flow of low
level moisture to reach nm from the Gulf of Mexico...with some of
the heaviest and most widespread precipitation targeting the
Central Mountain chain eastward Thursday and Thursday night. A
back door cold front may bring another uptick in convection to the
same area Friday night.

GFS and European model (ecmwf) depict a Summer like ridge of high pressure that
will try to build over the intermountain west during the latter
half of the week. This would trap some moisture under it keeping
daily rounds of convection in the forecast. However...long range
forecasts suggest the long wave trough may try to displace the ridge
again in early June.



Fire weather...
a few dryline storms may impact for NE and eastern
areas today. Otherwise...the main shower/thunderstorm focus will be
across the northwest third rest of today into the overnight hours. Models
are getting more bullish for wetting rain results across this area.
Basically a long duration event that should continue into
Sunday/Sunday night while expanding south/eastward. Temperatures will
remain below normal with higher humidity all areas. Still expecting
some breezes on Sunday but a bit lighter compared to today. Dont
rule out snow across the high terrain.

Residual showers/storms and perhaps some higher mountain snow will remain
on Monday as the Pacific trough finishes its slow sweep over The
Rockies region. This means higher relative humidity and cooler than normal temperatures.
Unseasonably high relative humidity values by this point. Continued breeziness
during the afternoon although not too strong. Some wetting
possibilities favoring the western and northern Highlands but
suspect for The Lowlands as well. Lingering impacts into Monday

A shortwave ridge is depicted by all of the models on Tuesday ahead
of the next Pacific weakness or trough. Expect warmer and drier
conditions on this day although still can rule out instability
showers near the Colorado border. Wind flow looks to be weaker due
to the ridge. Afternoon temperatures near normal on this day.

Models continue to show increased wetting chances later Wednesday and
lasting into next weekend. The main focus would be found across the
eastern half thanks to dryline thunderstorms and a weak back door
cold front Friday night into Saturday. Lower relative humidity would be found
across the western third or so. Temperatures would slowly cool with main
focus of cooler than normal high temperatures across the eastern plains.
Afternoon teen relative humidity values should be found along and to the west of
The Divide and probably lowland portions of Socorro County although
this pattern is notorious for pushing higher dewpoints or relative humidity values
westward further than the models think. Mainly due to daily rounds
of thunderstorms retrograding the dryline boundary during the
overnight hours. Thus...relative humidity forecasting is a little more problematic
for central areas during this period. Confidence is high for an
active dryline across eastern and perhaps central areas while low
chances exist for an organized critical fire weather growth event.



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