Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
455 am MST Sat Mar 8 2014
12z taf cycle
back door cold front has pushed through the eastern plains of nm
and MVFR ceilings have filled in behind it. Low clouds have also
filtered into the Rio Grande Valley...but generally remain in IFR
category. All ceilings should slowly lift through 18z. Otherwise... -sn
will continue across the north central and NE nm this morning and
will occasionally affect ksaf and klvs. However...as an upper level
system dives SW across western nm...showers will favor western nm
this afternoon. A few lightning strikes are also possible...but
confidence is not high enough to insert ts into kgup taf at this time.
North winds behind the back door front will continue to gust near
35kt this morning before slowly diminishing this afternoon and veering
around to the E/se. Gap winds into kabq may gust near 25kt
briefly this am.
Previous discussion...340 am MST Sat Mar 8 2014...
cooler temperatures today with rain and higher terrain snow showers
continuing...clearing from north to south tonight. Warmer Sunday and
Monday in advance of another storm system around the middle of next
will allow winter highlights to ride for a few more hours...although
so far from available observation...impact has been underwhelming. Snow
continuing at ktad though and imagery shows snow potentially
developing over the northern mts as what appears to be a result of the
upper trough/low forming per the GFS/European model (ecmwf) solution. Have trimmed
probability of precipitation back at bit for the highlight areas...as precipitation focus
should shift to the west during the morning. Front also continues to
track through the plains...and is close to the southeast border of
the state. It/S not terribly cold...with temperatures around
freezing at this time...and likely will not get any colder. Upshot is will
reevaluate after sunrise and may consider cancelling some or all of
The upper low/trough may be a little slower moving but should still
exit the County Warning Area later this evening or by midnight. Sunday and Monday
will be warmer and dry under a Flat Ridge. Look for some afternoon
breezes Monday along the Interstate 40 corridor in the east central.
Winds strengthen Tuesday as a stronger front surges into the
plains...an upper trough carves out over the central rockies and
Great Basin and descends through The Four Corners region and over
nm. European model (ecmwf) timing has slowed considerably and is in better agreement
with the GFS...although the details remain different.
light rain and snow showers continue across northern and eastern nm
this morning as one trough slides across NE nm and another gains
strength across the west before it dives southwestward later today.
Snowfall amounts across the northern mountains and northeast plains
will likely only amounts to a few inches at best...a bit below
original estimates. However...as the 2nd trough dives SW...enough
instability will be in place across western nm for some convective
showers to develop this afternoon. Not out of the question there could be
a handful of lightning strikes as well. The combination of upper
level disturbances...and associated cold fronts that have moved
through the state...will result in cooler temperatures today. In
fact...all areas will be below normal for March...generally between
5 and 15 degrees.
All shower activity will diminish this evening...generally around
sunset. Good humidity recoveries are expected. The upper level
trough will become a closed low over northern Mexico overnight and
will continue its southward progression on Sunday. Meanwhile...very
dry air will move into nm as an upper level ridge builds in.
Minimum humidities only drop into the 30s and 40s today...but
humidities will fall into the teens on Sunday...with several areas
falling below 15 percent across the plains. Fortunately...winds will
Very dry air will remain in place on Monday...though a Lee side
trough will develop and create some breezy conditions across the
plains. Could see a few hours of critical fire weather conditions
between Clines Corners and Santa Rosa during the afternoon.
Otherwise...temperatures will be back between 5 and 15 degrees above normal.
On Tuesday... upper ridge will flatten as the next storm system
approaches the state from the northwest. Could see a few hours of critical
conditions in the same area as Monday. However...a very strong back
door cold front looks to be on tap for Tuesday night. This front
will bring strong and gusty winds as well as colder temperatures.
Current indications are that the front will push through the gaps of
the Central Mountain chain westward to the Arizona border by middle
morning Wednesday. Thus...high temperatures Wednesday will be back below normal
for all areas. Similarly to the current storm system...some light
snow will be possible Tuesday night across the northeast...then
convective showers may pop up across the west on Wednesday afternoon.
This system looks to cross nm on Thursday...though where the best
precipitation chances are still in question. Regardless...areas with
wetting precipitation looks to be few and far between. Confidence in
the forecast for Friday and beyond is low as extended models remain
at odds with the upper level pattern.
Ventilation looks to be very good to excellent today thanks to the
stronger winds behind the cold front. Ventilation falls on Sunday as
mixing heights and transport winds lower. Good ventilation can still
be expected for much of central nm...but poor ventilation is
expected across the far north and northeast. Good to excellent
ventilation is expected for Monday and Tuesday...before falling
slightly on Wednesday.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for the following
Winter Storm Warning until noon MST today for the following zones...