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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1132 PM MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. As upper level
ridge shifts eastward Saturday...southwest winds may become breezy
at times in the afternoon...mainly at taf sites kgup...ktcc and
klvs. aviation hazards expected.



Previous discussion...327 PM MDT Friday Oct 24 2014...
unseasonably warm pattern will continue through the weekend over
north and central New Mexico...but there will be some cooling
mainly Sunday across northwest half of forecast area. High
pressure aloft to begin to shift east a bit tonight and more so
Saturday. Southwest to west winds aloft ramping up some Saturday
night and more so Sunday and Sunday night. Some locations mainly
in the northeast third of the forecast area will top or at least
approach record highs Saturday. By Sunday some stronger surface
winds will develop along with just a few stray light showers and
thunderstorms in mainly the northwest third of New Mexico.
Temperatures should then cool back close to average Monday night
and Tuesday most areas with a cold front having scooted through
the state.


very quiet night tonight areawide with nary a cloud in the sky
and light to occasionally calm winds. High pressure aloft to ease
slightly east tonight...even more so Sat. Southwesterly flow
aloft will still be rather weak Sat afternoon as a weak surface trough
tries to take shape to the Lee of the sangre Delaware cristos. High
temperatures will be within just a few degrees of those today with
again a few high temperature records in jeopardy...particularly in the NE
third of the forecast area.

Some high to middle level moisture will begin easing into west nm
Sat night into sun while a SW flow aloft strengthens. Still looks
like surface gradient and wind speeds aloft will be quite enough to
produce Wind Advisory type speeds at the surface...but some breezy
to locally windy conditions will are still expected in a warmer
than normal and high mixing regime Sun afternoon. With some very modest
incoming middle level moisture and sufficient temperature lapse
rates a few light showers...or more likely just sprinkles...and
perhaps even a dry thunderstorm will be a possibility across mainly
northwest third of forecast area. This relatively modest convection may locally
enhance any gusts in this area and even a little ways outside of
this area where any virga can develop.

A trailing short wave embedded in the progressive longer wave
pattern may push into the state by Monday. This may trigger a few
more showers/storms over the north central to northeastern zones
Monday and Monday night. Some indications that a cold front will also
spill into the state from the north Monday night...forcing
temperatures back closer to average. A drier and more relaxed
westerly flow would prevail on Tuesday and Wednesday with another strong
ridge moving over nm Thursday and Friday.



Fire weather...
critical fire weather...not expected through the upcoming work week. good agreement through the upcoming work week and the
following work week. Ridge over New Mexico sitting in front of
intensifying trough from the Gulf of Alaska to the eastern Pacific
Ocean well off San Francisco Bay. Trough will sweep over the
northern California coast Saturday as trailing shortwave will keep
trough deep...and dig trough extent southward over Southern
California by early Sunday morning. Trough will shear rapidly
eastward across New Mexico on Sunday...with a third shortwave
amplifying over the east Pacific and moving across the California
coast early Monday morning...and shearing across New Mexico through
Monday evening. As main trough energy plunges across the Mississippi
River valley and into the eastern u... tilted trough
will deepen from the central Midwest states south and west across
New Mexico on Wednesday...and this feature will drift into Texas
Wednesday evening. Upstream ridge will build over Southern
California and northern Baja California California and move to the lower
Colorado River valley on Thursday an on over western New Mexico on
Friday. Core will drift slowly to south Texas and eastern Chihuahua
as next upstream trough amplifies from the northwest Canadian northern the east Pacific well off San
Diego by late in the weekend...leaving New Mexico in weak southwest
flow aloft.

Overnight...generally good humidity recoveries overnight with light
winds. Temperatures a little warmer overnight than last night.

For Saturday...steady temperature trends as ridge core moves to
central Texas and weak southwest flow aloft starts to work in over
New Mexico with the first hints of some cloud cover by Saturday
afternoon over the western end of the state. Surface winds will be
mostly southwest and light. Humidities will fall to the teens over
northern New Mexico...and the 20s for the southern half of the
state. Improving ventilation conditions broadly with marginal boost
in transport winds. Haines indices will run 5 or higher over the
eastern tier of the state near the Texas and Oklahoma borders. Good
humidity recoveries overnight.

For Sunday...strengthening southwest flow overhead as surface trough
deepens from the western Dakotas to southeast New Mexico. Southwest
breezes will become widespread across the western third of the state
from the Arizona line eastward across the Continental Divide..and
across and downwind along the Central Mountain chain and adjacent
eastern plains. Plume of breezy winds will extend eastward along the
Interstate 40 corridor from the central mountains to the Texas
line...and locally over the northeast Highlands and adjacent plains
Sunday afternoon. With minimum humidities in the teens and low 20s
percent...dry spots will not line up with the windy spots...precluding
widespread red flag conditions. Haines indices will also fall
through the morning to end up near 2 or 3 by Sunday afternoon
statewide to keep fire weather highly localized through Sunday
evening. No ventilation issues during an otherwise breezy day.
Isolated shower coverage will be possible over the northern and
western mountains...mainly north of Interstate 40...through Sunday
night with rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch. Fair to
good humidity recoveries overnight...excellent recoveries locally in
the west.

For Monday...much cooler as cold front sags southward over the
eastern half of New Mexico...and cloud cover limits daytime
temperature excursions. Despite the cooling...most spots will remain
6 to 12 degrees above normal in the east...and closer to normal in
the west. West winds will shift to the north over eastern New
Mexico...with continued breeziness in the afternoon across the
Central Mountain chain summits and eastern slopes and foothills on
Monday afternoon. Humidities remaining in the upper teens and 20s
percent to remain out of widespread fire danger with some localized
Haines values of 5 showing up near the Texas line near Tucumcari.
Continued favorable ventilation along and south of Interstate
40...with first signs of degrading conditions showing up north of I
40 through Monday evening. Fair to good humidity recoveries

Outlook...Tuesday through Thursday...warming trend through midweek
after cool start to Tuesday in an otherwise dry period...and turning
slightly cooler in the east on Thursday. Gentle drying will keep
minimum humidities broadly in the teens and 20s percent range. A few
breezes Wednesday over the I 40 corridor east of the central
mountains...with wind directions shifting east Thursday as cold
front drops across the eastern half of the state through Thursday
evening. Degraded ventilation through the period...with some
marginally better conditions over the eastern plains.



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...



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