Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
557 PM MST sun Nov 23 2014
the surface pressure gradient is slowly weakening over the area as
is the middle/upper level wind field. A few sites will remain windy
for a couple more hours along the east slopes...but the strongest
winds have passed. Will expire the wind highlights for 6 PM. Min
temperatures will be much colder tonight... especially across the north
where fresh snow has fallen. A few lingering snow showers over the
north and east will also taper off through this evening.
Previous discussion...508 PM MST sun Nov 23 2014...
00z taf cycle
upper level short wave trough moving out of the state this evening
will allow wind speeds to drop significantly after sunset most
lower elevation locales...not as much higher up. Some gusts of
35 to 50 knots will still be likely over the Central Mountain chain
peaks and immediately adjacent adjacent east slopes and perhaps
Highlands well into the night tonight. Localized areas of Montana
obscurations in -sn/snow or low ceilings will diminish later this evening
across the high country. Second slightly weaker upper level trough
and wind maximum expected to cross the same general area between late
morning Monday with winds peaking again...but mostly 5 to 15 kts lower
than today. Again there may be some periodic northern Montana
obscurations in lowered ceilings and spotty -sn.
Previous discussion...257 PM MST sun Nov 23 2014...
a strong cold front is sweeping through New Mexico and has
resulted in snow showers across the northern mountains and a mix
of rain and snow across portions of the plains. In addition...very
windy conditions are being observed across much of the area with
gusts to between 45 and 55 miles per hour. Winds will pick up again Monday...
with breezy to locally windy conditions forecast as a second surge
of cold air pushes through. Temperatures will trend down to well
below normal through Tuesday morning...then begin a warming trend.
Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are forecast from
Thursday through at least Saturday.
warmer temperatures overnight prevented the atmosphere from
stabilizing to the point where mountain wave activity could
develop...so the stronger winds were delayed until this morning.
The Wind Advisory looks to have worked-out nicely for most areas
and may need to extend Chaves and Lincoln County for a few hours.
Temperatures behind the backdoor front have stayed warm enough to
prevent any significant impacts with rain changing over to snow.
Raton Pass looks largely unable-impacted by snow this morning...with
the only impacts relegated to the sangre Delaware cristos at places like
Red River and Angel Fire where 2-4 inches fell. Some rouge reports
of 8+ inches came in near Questa around 9k feet...but these reports
seem largely unrepresentative of the snow that fell in most of the
northern sangres. Snow showers look to persist into the evening
hours across the northern mountains...northeast Highlands and
Central Highlands...with additional accumulation around 1 inch
Cold air advection to continue tonight...then another surge
arrives with a shortwave trough in the northwest flow aloft late
Monday. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast...with
another round of snow showers possible across the northern
mountains and northeast. Generally...no significant additional
accumulation is expected late Monday afternoon through Monday
night...but places like Taos Ski Valley could pick-up another 2-4
inches. Cold air advection to persist into Tuesday morning...which
looks to be the coldest of the next seven days for most locations.
A warming trend to begin Tuesday afternoon and continue through
Friday before temperatures top-off. Temperatures will be above
normal by Thursday and are forecast to persist above normal
through the weekend as dry zonal flow prevails. Both the 12z European model (ecmwf)
and GFS show a trough impacting the West Coast by late next Sunday
into the following work-week...which has the potential to be our
next weather-maker in the day 9-10 range.
strong northwest winds along with areas of light snow over the
northeast third of the state will gradually diminish after sunset.
Cold air will continue to filter into the region overnight. A
trailing system will move through northern and central New Mexico
Monday. Moderate to strong northwest winds along with more cold air
will accompany this feature but are not expected to be as strong. A
few light snow showers will develop over the northern mountains and
NE Highlands Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures both Monday
and Tuesday will remain between 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal
averages for late November.
Dry northwest flow aloft will move in behind the departing system
Tuesday. This flow will result in a rapidly strengthening Lee
surface trough over the eastern plains and strengthening west to
southwest winds mainly from the Central Mountain chain eastward.
Moderate to strong northwest flow aloft near mountain top level
across central New Mexico will result in gusty northwest winds along
ridgetops. Temperatures will remain below average through Tuesday
before warming to near average levels Wednesday. Poor to good
Tuesday will trend down Wednesday and Thanksgiving day as high
pressure gradually moves in from the west. Ventilation rates will
trend slowly up black Friday into the weekend as the upper level
ridge weakens and the flow aloft becomes westerly/zonal.