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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
521 am MDT Thursday Oct 30 2014

Aviation...
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A wind shift
will continue to slide down the eastern plains today. A brief
period of north or NE wind gusts near 20kt will occur behind the
front. Winds will taper off late this afternoon most areas...though the
front will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain chain. Gap winds
with gusts by the way 18 and 25kts will be possible at saf late this afternoon
and at abq tonight.

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Previous discussion...309 am MDT Thursday Oct 30 2014...
synopsis...
continued dry through the next 24 hours or so then an increase in
moisture will result in chances for showers...a few thunderstorms
and High Mountain snow showers Friday through early next week. The
above normal temperatures will trend back to normal or below by
early next week. Big model differences develop early next week. 40

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Discussion...
a ridge of high pressure will move toward nm today providing US
with another stellar day of weather with plenty of bright sunshine.
Despite a chilly start temperatures will soar to above normal
readings again today. A back door cold front will slow the warming
in the east today and there will be some gusty northeast winds
with the front.

The ridge of high pressure will be over the state tonight then
shift east Friday with southwest flow developing aloft and south
to southeast winds setting up at the surface. This will provide
US with an increase in moisture as a large trough approaches the
West Coast. A few showers will develop over the western and south
Central High terrain Friday. Coverage will be isolated and rain
amounts...if any...will be light. East Canyon winds will develop
tonight into the Rio Grande Valley. High temperatures Friday will
be cooler most areas...especially in the east.

The trough will move inland Friday night and Saturday. A portion
of the trough will lift northeast this weekend while additional
energy hangs back over the Great Basin. Shower coverage should
increase some Friday night and Saturday with isolated to scattered
coverage over the west and central zones.

Big model differences then develop later in the weekend into next
week. GFS is now more progressive with the hang back trough. It
does not develop a closed low like it did yesterday. Meanwhile the
European does develop a closed low near Las Vegas Nevada Sunday night
and moves it into Arizona Monday then southward on Tuesday. It then
moves the low slowly east across northern Mexico and West Texas
Wednesday before lifting it northeast Thursday. Obviously this
results in a much wetter pattern for a longer period of time if the
European is right. The Canadian sides with the GFS and that is the
trend we will go with for now. So the trough over the Great Basin
will move slowly east Sunday into Tuesday...drawing additional
moisture north into the state. This will help the east get into
the precipitation Mode Sunday night and Monday...although probably
only isolated coverage. Isolated to scattered showers will continue
for the west and central areas...with snow levels dropping Sunday
into Monday. High northern mountain peaks could receive some
accumulating wet snow.

A drying trend commences Tuesday with high pressure in control for
the middle and end of next week...at least according to the GFS. Chj

&&

Fire weather...
upper level ridge will move across nm today and tonight. Temperatures will
remain at or just below yesterdays readings...especially across the
east...thanks to a back door front. Localized breezy conditions
behind the front will yield fair to good ventilation across the
plains...while poor ventilation still remains the rule across much
of central and western portions of the area. Additionally...humidity
values between 10 and 15 percent will be common along and west of
the Rio Grande Valley. An hour or two of single digit humidities is
not out of the question across portions of zone 105.

The front will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain chain
this afternoon and some breezy conditions may develop below gaps
tonight. Humidity recoveries should improve from this morning...with
most areas in the fair to good categories.

The front will wash out and surface winds will become south/southeasterly on
Friday and strengthen slightly as a deep upper level trough moves
toward the West Coast. This will draw up some modest low/middle level
moisture into mainly western nm...with the edges of the better
moisture return into the Rio Grande Valley. Ventilation will
improve...with most areas seeing good ventilation rates. Some spotty
showers...mainly dry showers with gusty winds...are possible across
the west. As lift increases as the trough nears...showers may
increase Friday night and spread into central nm. Humidities both
Friday and Friday night will increase.

Regarding the upper level trough...though some energy from the
system will eject NE across the central rockies...additional energy
on the back side of the system is expected to dive southward into
Arizona/nm by Sunday and Monday. What this means for nm is breezy to
windy conditions over the weekend...and models are trending that
Sunday will be the windier of the two days. Humidities will be too
high for critical conditions to develop...but ventilation will
continue to improve. Some moisture in the southwest/upslope flow may
result in showers or thunderstorms across the northwest...in
particular...the northwest mountains. On Saturday...showers/tstms will
have the potential for gusty winds as drier air once again intrudes
into the middle levels. Snow levels will lower Sunday...thus some of
the higher elevations...mainly above 9kft...could see some flakes.
Temperatures will lower Sunday across the northwest...and more so on Monday
across all areas. In fact...most areas across central and western nm
may see below normal temperatures for Monday.

Models are really struggling with how the secondary energy will
evolve early next week. The GFS and Canadian models are more
progressive with the system...leaving little change for additional
precipitation during the early to middle week period. While the European model (ecmwf)
closes off the low over Arizona Monday which draws significantly more
moisture into nm early next week...increasing the chances for
precipitation. Too early to say which way it will go...but leaning toward
the GFS/Canadian.

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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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