Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
557 am MDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Aviation...
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected through period under the influence of
upper level high pressure. Southwest winds will increase this
morning and become strongest this afternoon over the higher terrain
and along and west of the Continental Divide. The area over and
east of the northern sangre Delaware cristo mountains will see some high
based cumulus clouds by middle day and with isolated late afternoon
or early evening showers and thunderstorms. Wind shift into the
northeast plains around 03z to 06z.
05
&&
Previous discussion...330 am MDT Wednesday may 22 2013...
currently...weak ridge extending from northern Sonora along the
western border of New Mexico will make gradual eastward progress
through the day today...as weak cold front works into northeast
New Mexico through this morning and stalls out by early afternoon.
Upstream...large sprawling closed low over the Pacific northwest
with circulation expanding to central California and northern
Nevada...with increases in coverage on tap for the next 24 hours.
Models...in reasonable agreement through the Holiday weekend and
into Tuesday night...with differences in upstream pattern
evolution showing up by midweek through Thursday night. Plausible
and acceptable consensus shifts ridge squarely over New Mexico
today and moves it east of the state by late tonight. Circulation
about Pacific northwest low will work into northern and western
New Mexico as southwest flow aloft during the day on
Thursday...and this basic set up will persist pretty much unabated
through the Memorial Day Holiday into Tuesday. Closed low will
receive upstream kick from system moving out of the western
Aleutian chain...and this will bring a shortwave into Arizona late
Tuesday and into New Mexico Tuesday night. Differences emerging
from Wednesday Onward...as European model (ecmwf) moves this wave through quickly
and leaves New Mexico in very weak flow aloft by early Thursday
morning as closed low continues to spin off Vancouver Island on
the Canadian West Coast. GFS much more progressive and
aggressive...digging elongated closed low spanning from the Gulf
of Alaska into the intermountain region and anchoring gusty trough
base squarely over New Mexico on Thursday as parent closed low
shoots through the flow into the northern plains. Differences are
significant...as New Mexico will be in the calm doldrums per European model (ecmwf)
or into another late week windbag per GFS. Have split the
difference and kept unsettled conditions in the forecast for late
next week and will watch future runs with interest for better
consensus.
For today...ridge aloft moving squarely over New Mexico during the
day today and supporting strong warming trend. Daytime maximum
temperatures will run 3 to 8 degrees above late may normals. Some
isolated afternoon thunder possible over the northeast Highlands
and adjacent plains...especially over Raton ridge...with little
wetting rain expected. Breezy winds cranking up over the Arizona
line and eastward to the Continental Divide this afternoon.
Continued low humidities will produce localized red flag
conditions in spots through early evening.
For Thursday...ridge axis shifting east to The Heart of Texas as
southwest flow in circulation about sprawling closed over the
Pacific northwest works into New Mexico. Cold front penetrating
the eastern plains from the north will shift wind directions into
an easterly component...with resulting up slope flow...moisture
advection out of the Southern Plains...and afternoon thunderstorm
activity along the dry line. Storms south and east of a Tucumcari
to Ruidoso line may become strong through Thursday...as lifted
indices fall to 4 below...and mu cape pushes up to 1000 j per kg
over the southeast quadrant of the state. Thursday southwest
breezes will develop over western and central New Mexico during
the afternoon...with wind speeds a little lower over the east.
For Friday...cold front stalled out just inside the eastern border
of New Mexico...as southwest flow strengthens slowly but steadily
over the remainder of the state. Dry line will be active in the
east...with strong thunderstorms possible over the eastern plains
Friday afternoon. Lifted indices moving lower...down to 7 below in
spots along the eastern border...as mu cape doubles to nearly 2000
j per kg in the same spots. With additional moisture in
play...wetting rains are possible in stronger
thunderstorms...especially close to the Texas border. Away from
thunderstorms...southerly breeziness along Interstate 40 will meet
up with low humidities to produce fire weather issues over the
western tier. Maximum temperatures running 3 to 8 degrees above
late may normals.
For Saturday...southwest flow aloft turning speeds up a notch as
surface trough deepens from eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle across eastern New Mexico to roughly El Paso. Southwest
afternoon breeziness will be pretty common statewide
Saturday...with strongest winds near the Arizona border and over
th eastern and northeast plains. Another day of active dry line
initiation of thunderstorms with lifted indices falling to 6
below...and mu cape hanging in there around 2000 j per kg.
Rainfall will run heavier...with good chances for wetting rain
expanding out of the eastern tier into the remainder of the
Eastern Plain and foothills of the Central Mountain chain...but
little chance further west. Maximum temperatures still running a
few degrees above late may normals.
Outlook...Sunday through Tuesday...strengthening southwest flow
aloft in advance of waves propagated by Pacific northwest storm
system across the southwestern U.S. Most substantial wave slated
for arrival near The Four Corners by Tuesday afternoon. Eastern
surface trough becoming better defined through Tuesday...with
broad areas of breezes near the Arizona line...and over the
eastern plains...during the day. Breezes will help set up another
day of critical fire weather conditions over the western and
central mountains...the northeast Highlands...and adjacent eastern
plains Sunday afternoon. With trough axis defining dry line
boundary...eastern plains thunderstorms will shift focus to West
Texas through Memorial Day to end the convective excitement for
New Mexico through Tuesday. Very slight warming trend in the
east...as daytime highs warm to 6 to 12 degrees above late may
normals....and a more modest 3 to 8 degree positive departure for
maximum temperatures central and west.
Shy
Fire weather...
interesting fire weather scenario setting up with areas of critical
fire weather extreme west today and over a broader area of the
western and central zones Thursday and Friday. While not slam dunk
red flag conditions...very dry and very unstable conditions are
expected with deep mixing. Will maintain the Fire Weather Watch
for Thursday. By Thursday and Friday and even into Saturday...a much
more pronounced gradient in surface moisture looks to finally set up
with possible dry line activity in the eastern plains.
A nearly stationary upper level low remains over the Pacific
northwest while short wave ridging builds over The Rockies and an
associated dry slot is edging in from the west. Thus...warmer today
all zones with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Single
digit relative humidity values expected most zones...but southwest winds should
remain below critical levels. Deep mixing will produce excellent
ventilation but high Haines of 6 all but the extreme northeast. A
few hours of critical conditions are possible across the extreme
west where southwest winds will be strongest. Overnight...relative humidity
recoveries to be poor central and western zones. A weak eastern
wind shift into the northeast plains and south winds into the east
Central Plains will usher in some low level moisture.
Additional warming on Thursday as the ridge axis moves east of New
Mexico and the upper level southwest gradient strengthens to our
west. Continued very dry and unstable with single digit relative humidity and high
Haines of 6 all but the extreme east and super Haines across the west.
Have maintained the watch for zones 101...105 and 103 and day shift
may expand this to include zones 106 and 107. Models disagree on the
westward extent of moisture across the east...but moisture does
increase and the dry line looks to set up.
Friday will be the best day of contrast with breezy south to
southeast flow into the eastern plains maintaining good low level
moisture. Decent cape as well and looks to be the best day for
dry line thunderstorms east. Breezy to windy across the west and
still very dry with some critical conditions west and central zones
deep mixing and super Haines as well.
Upper low still in place Saturday and looks like continued dry west
and maybe a down tick in activity east but another day of dry line
storms is possible. Extended models deepen the trough on
Sunday...GFS a bit more aggressively...with breezy to windy southwest
winds and drier east. Looks dry all zones into the early work week.
05
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones...nmz101-103-105.
&&
$$
Shy
