Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
445 PM MST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions are forecast to persist with decreasing winds through
the taf period at kfmn...kgup...kabq and kaeg. An East Canyon wind
may develop at kabq this evening...but low forecast confidence at
this time. The front is forecast to push into ksaf this evening...
with MVFR ceilings developing behind it. LIFR conditions are forecast
to persist most of the night at klvs...with IFR conditions at
krow in light snow. Ktcc will likely hold in the MVFR category
overnight. Significant improvement is forecast at eastern
terminals Thursday...with VFR conditions prevailing by middle day at
Previous discussion...251 PM MST Wednesday Mar 4 2015...
the final storm system in a series of disturbances is crossing nm
and will be east of our forecast area by daybreak Thursday. Left
behind will be a very cold airmass. Some additional snow tonight
will fall cross the eastern half of the state...but amounts will
be light. Even so...we will continue the winter weather advisories
until midnight due to the potential hazardous Road conditions. A
general drying and warming trend will begin Thursday and continue
into next week.
last in a series of storms will wind down tonight over the eastern
half of the County Warning Area. The remnant upper low near the bootheel and upper
level trough from the northwest will cross nm tonight and move east of our
area Thursday. The back door cold front has made it south through
our County Warning Area and pressed up against the east slopes of the Central
Mountain chain. It now looks like it will be able to spill into the
Rio Grande Valley this evening producing moderate winds and a colder
airmass. So a very cold night setting up for early March. Lingering
snow from the central and Southwest Mountains on east will bring a
little additional snowfall. While most areas in the Winter Weather
Advisory will not meet the snowfall criteria...many roads have iced
up due to freezing drizzle and freezing fog this morning and the
rapid drop in temperatures have kept untreated roads hazardous. So
will continue the advisory until midnight tonight.
Thursday will dawn cold but the return of sunshine will help the
temperatures climb above todays readings except in the south
central and southeast zones. Despite the increase in temperatures
highs will still be 10 to 30 degrees below normal.
Friday into next week will be mostly dry with the warming trend
continuing for the most part. Highs will finally reach near normal
in most areas over the weekend. A weak upper low that forms over
Baja California California and a weak upper level trough in the weak northwest flow
will cross nm late this weekend into early next week along with a
minor surface cold front. A snow shower cannot be ruled out late
in the weekend over the northern mountain peaks and a few rain
showers over southern zones Monday...otherwise it should remain
dry with little or no temperature drop across the County Warning Area.
A couple of disturbances later next week will deliver a return
of colder air and potentially unsettled weather Thursday into
the following weekend. Chj
critical fire weather conditions not expected through at least early
Still attempting to shoo away subtropical plume from the east
central and southeast today with upper trough axis overhead. Looks
like the plume will finally exit tonight with the trough exiting by
midday Thursday. Models continue to hold onto the idea of a weak
upper low residing over Sonora then passing over southern nm over
the weekend...but Don/T generate much if any precipitation.
Therefore chances for generally meager snow amounts will be focused
from the east slopes of the Central Mountain chain eastward tonight. The
cold air in the plains has deepened this afternoon...sufficiently
to turn the wind east at cqc...so now expecting an east wind into
the ksaf and kabq areas with gusts to around 35 miles per hour near canyons
in the foothills tonight.
Drier but cold Thursday with highs ranging from near 10 to 30
degrees below average. Vent rates will be poor most areas Thursday
and Friday...although the far west central will be good on Friday.
Similar conditions are forecast for Saturday and Sunday. The east
may experience good rates next Monday.
Temperatures will undergo a warming trend through early next
week...finally reaching near to above average values by
Sunday/Monday. A more active and wetter pattern could evolve middle
to late next week.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for the