Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
600 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected most areas through period. Areas of fog
are expected to develop again during the early morning hours. Best
chances exist across portions of the southeast and east Central
Plains...including the Pecos Valley and krow and east to the Texas
border. MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible there. Local fog or freezing
fog possible north Central Valley locations including kaxx...the
east Central Highlands including kcqc...and valley locations
within the Southwest Mountains. Light surface winds on Thursday
and mostly clear skies.
Previous discussion...315 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014...
an unseasonably strong dome of high pressure will slide over New
Mexico over the next several days...bringing spectacular weather
to the region through Saturday. Temperatures will average 5 to 15
degrees above normal...with a few near record high temperatures
possible over the eastern plains. Temperatures will trend cooler
by Sunday and winds will trend stronger as the high moves east of
the state. Cooler and breezy conditions will continue into Monday
as a fast moving low pressure system races through the northern
the latest radar shows just a couple very light showers moving
southeast from the central Montana chain to the plains. 20z laps data
indicates enough instability to support a few storms however a
subsidence inversion aloft is acting to suppress convection below
550mb. The 18z nam12 and hrrr indicate the bulk of any storms will
focus over the northeast plains and around southwest Chaves County.
Otherwise...what few clouds exist across central/western nm will
dissipate after sunset. Temperatures tonight will once again be above
normal for the east where low level moisture is holding strong.
Weak surface convergence beneath a strengthening ridge aloft will
favor areas of fog within the Pecos and Estancia valleys...as well
as along The Caprock.
Thursday will feature warming temperatures as 700mb values rise
to near +10c. This is near the 95th percentile for late October.
The 500 mb ridge then crests over nm at 591dm and delivers a really
spectacular Friday. 700mb temperatures peak out near +12c which is +2
Standard deviations above climatology. Temperatures will be near record across the
east with lots of middle 80s. Enough low level moisture looks to stay
in place and Lee troughing remains relatively weak so not really
expecting records. By Saturday the ridge breaks down and winds
begin increasing in the east. Highs certainly may near 90f in the
area around Tucumcari. Elsewhere...it will remain sunny and warm.
Sunday and Monday are now in better agreement from models which
indicates fast zonal flow over nm. This will favor continued warm
temperatures over the east with katabatic flow. Some mountain wave wind
driven circulation may create locally strong winds on the east
slopes both days. 700mb cold advection in the west will cool highs
down several degrees. The dgex and European model (ecmwf) do show enough middle/upper
level moisture across the northern mts for a couple high terrain
we will begin a drying trend late today through the weekend. Look
for warming daytime highs...up and down ventilation rates...and a
downtrend in humidity values with breezy westerlies.
Very spotty showers and thunderstorms will form along the Central
Mountain chain but will diminish downslope toward the eastern plains
this afternoon into early the early evening. Very little wetting
rain is expected from spotty storms. A ridge of high pressure is
building over the southwest and will shift eastward by Friday
bringing US warmer daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal...
following a downtrend in humidity values through the weekend.
Ventilation will be poor on Friday but rates look to improve over
the weekend as the upper level ridge shifts east. Haines values will
also trend upward...with 5s east of the Central Mountain chain.
Breezy to windy conditions will increase Sunday and Monday along and
east of the Central Mountain chain because of an upper trough moving
through the central and southern rockies. Could see marginally
critical wind speeds west central and especially Central Highlands
Sunday and Monday afternoon...humidities look to stay a little above
critical criteria at this time. A cooling trend of high temperatures
will be expected Monday and Tuesday as the upper level trough passes
through the state.
Models differ late Monday into Tuesday about wetting precipitation
chances. GFS is drier with zonal flow over the state while European model (ecmwf) is
bullish on precipitation across the north and east as a remaining
upper level trough exits the state.