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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
616 am MDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Aviation...
12z taf cycle
widespread IFR and spotty LIFR ceilings and visibility across good portion
of southeast plains west and then north across the east slopes of central
Montana chain and immediately adjacent Highlands to the east until at
least 15z or 16z before some rise or breaks in ceilings sets in.
Expect Montana obscurations as well. Elsewhere in east nm ceilings are a
little less widespread and generally MVFR with some spotty IFR
mixed in. This also to improve middle to late morning. Mostly VFR
conditions to west of central Montana chain. Near surface wind flow to
turn to more of an easterly component as the day progresses today.
Below canyons and passes of central Montana chain east to southeast wind gusts
will develop between 21 and 00z. Mainly from near 00z and about
09z or a bit later wind gusts to reach between 28 and 35 kts below
canyons...including abq and saf with sustained speeds between 15
and 26 knots. Some spotty rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to redevelop mainly southern and
western areas near and especially after 20z...favoring higher
terrain at first...more isolated activity across northern mts.
Some activity to continue overnight tonight. Also some MVFR and
IFR ceilings again fairly likely later tonight along east slopes
central Montana chain as well as southeast and perhaps east Central Plains.

43

&&

Previous discussion...348 am MDT Sat Sep 20 2014...
synopsis...
very moist air mass to remain in place across southeast New Mexico
where showers and a few thunderstorms are most favored. Deeper moisture
will expand westward late today and tonight...with shower and
thunderstorm activity expected to increase again for parts of the
eastern plains. An overall uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected for Sunday and Sunday evening as a disturbance
aloft passes just north of the state and helps to draw moisture
farther north and west. Drier air will then spread eastward into northwest
New Mexico Monday and most areas Tuesday. Meanwhile... temperatures
will remain generally above normal across the west and below
normal across the east. By the middle of next week...a drying
trend will take a stronger hold on the area...and temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal except for the southeast
plains where cooler than average temperature will likely linger.

&&

Discussion...
extensive low clouds and at least patchy dense fog east of the
Central Mountain chain early this morning. Expect fog to
develop/expand and have greatest impact along the immediate east
slopes and along the western fringes of persistent stratus deck.
Very moist air mass remains in place across the southeast plains
where surface dew point temperatures solidly in the middle/upper 60s. Thus
even weak upslope/low level convergence in this environ enough to
generate isolated activity this morning...and all indications
point toward a gradual strengthening of the east-southeast boundary layer
winds across the plains as the day progresses and moreso into the
evening hours. Latest 13km rapid refresh /rap/ and hrrr model runs
continue to support isolated-scattered coverage for the ec/southeast zones today.
And good agreement between GFS/NAM supporting previous pop/weather
trends increasing pop for southeast 1/4 tonight with a preferred axis
along/west of the Pecos River valley to east slopes of the SC
mountains where upslope effects will be maximized.

Outside the SC mountains and ec/southeast plains...a predominately dry and
unseasonably warm forecast today beneath gradually strengthening
high pressure aloft that should center near or just north of the
nm/Colorado line today before deflating and shifting east and south
tonight- Sunday. The slight amplification of the ridge aloft today
and then trends into Sunday due to a closed low forecast to move
into central California late today- tonight then across the Great Basin
Sunday. The one exception to the predominately dry forecast today
will be Catron County/upper Gila region extending north toward the
Zuni Mountains near the nm/Arizona line where middle level moisture
expected to advect northward in the developing S-southeasterly flow. An
expansion of isolated to scattered probability of precipitation expected areawide by
Sunday...especially the north and west...as forcing for large-
scale lift aids convection Sunday PM. Surface pressure falls to
the west of the state associated with the California low pressure system
most likely responsible for the strengthening east-southeasterly boundary
layer late today and tonight. This will bring higher dew point air
westward contributing to the overall improving rain showers/thunderstorms and rain chances.
Storm motions will be fairly fast but could see a few strong cells
develop Sunday PM northwest zones.

Closed low to open up and pass north of the state Monday...with
progressively drier air mass into The Four Corners. Best probability of precipitation from
NE to SW. Transition to northwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday that would
favor the NC/NE areas but with residual moisture cannot rule out
isolated- scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across the east and south. Definite
drying trend NC/northwest zones. For Wednesday and beyond...another deep trough
indicated into the West Coast late next week but much uncertainty
on how quickly it will progress east. Farther downstream over our
region... positively tilted upper ridge most likely to dominate
with a deformation axis of some sorts stretching from the Central
Plains states into far eastern nm but low confidence. Low grade
pop forecast in place for now with temperatures generally below normal
east...and near to slightly above west. Kj

&&

Fire weather...
upper low near the central to S California coast to be an important
driver in lowering surface pressure over or just west of west nm which will
shift winds to somewhat of an easterly component across most of the
east two thirds or three quarters of nm by late am to early PM
today. Some drying thanks to a moderate middle level dry intrusion
expected mainly across western areas. The best chance of wetting
rain to be found across the southeast and also much of the higher terrain
elsewhere. Gap wind gusts ranging from 30 to 40 miles per hour will be expected
along the Rio Grande Valley tonight into Sun morning. Residual surface
moisture and middle to upper level flow shifting from east and NE today to
more of a southeast to S flow sun to Sun night period. This should help
enhance wetting rain potential for sun...favoring most the Central
Mountain chain and east as well as areas near to west of The Divide.
Afternoon temperatures should be will cool roughly 5 to 10 degrees most spots
except perhaps a bit less so across far east nm...but remain near
normal across roughly the NE half of the state. Some breezy level
wind areas embedded in the generally S to southeast flow sun. Ventilation
rates look to be fair to good for areas north of the Interstate 40
corridor.

Monday to again some wetting rain chances and below normal temperatures
in the east and to some degree south...less wetting rain potential
with near normal temperatures to the northwest. Ventilation not expected to
change a lot between Sunday to Monday with better readings generally
along and north of i40.

A drying trend still appears to be in the cards over the area
starting Tuesday into at least Thursday...though a weak frontal boundary is
still anticipated middle week and favor the east slopes of the central
mountains eastward. Ventilation is expected to lower some, though not
drastically...Tuesday and Wednesday. The next upper trough still looks to
approach for late week into the following weekend. Some forecast model
differences remain in strength and timing. GFS model still looks
deeper and somewhat faster with the trough thus some wind impacts
possible ahead of it. This should improve ventilation rates. European model (ecmwf)
still is a bit slower. Model differences still driving down
confidence some for late week into next week. 43

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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