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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
532 PM MDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain near the nm/Colorado line where axis of better
moisture and instability remains oriented west-east. Individual
cells slowly tracking toward the east at 10 kts or less.
Elsewhere...a vast majority of our area remains under a drier and
more stable air mass. Cannot rule out a rogue...very isolated
high-based rain showers or thunderstorms and rain in the vicinity of the higher terrain and
Four Corners region early evening and will continue with previous
vcsh at kfmn...kgup and klvs until 02z. Low to moderate confidence
regarding direct impacts. Main concern with any of the isolated
rain showers or thunderstorms and rain will be localized gusty winds. A bit more
convectively active after 18z Sat and have included scattered-bkn100 to
highlight a trend at most taf sites. Kj

&&

Previous discussion...325 PM MDT Friday Jul 25 2014...
synopsis...
a hot day is in store all areas Saturday before increasing clouds
and a backdoor cold from bring temperatures back down closer to
average on Sunday. The backdoor front will spell an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage for most areas Sunday through middle week. Weather
prediction models continue to indicate that deep monsoon moisture
will move into the region during the latter half of the week...bringing
good chances for widespread and potentially heavy rainfall to
central and northern New Mexico.

&&

Discussion...
thunderstorms are beginning to fire along the east slopes of the
jemez and sangre Delaware cristos this afternoon as low and middle-level
moisture begins to seep back into the state from the west and
southwest. Upper high center will shift slightly westward to south-
central nm by this evening. Surface dewpoint temperatures remain
relatively low so more outflow winds anticipated with late
afternoon and evening showers and storms. Storm motion will be
east to northeast around 15 miles per hour. Introduced a sleigh chance for a
shower or storm this evening for the middle rg valley and Santa Fe
metropolitan areas as we are currently 96f at the sunport and could
potentially break our subsidence inversion just above 500mb.

Upper high center shifts north by about 150 miles Saturday
morning...located smack-dab over central nm by Saturday afternoon.
Guidance continues to trend slightly hotter for saturdays maximum
temperatures. Went a degree or two warmer most locations for Saturday
afternoon as a result. A slight cool down is expected Sunday as
the upper high center shifts east and a strong backdoor cold front
drops into northeast New Mexico. Convection likely to light up
along and near this boundary Sunday afternoon and evening as it
progresses S and SW. 12z nam12 brings the backdoor front into the
state Sunday morning. East winds will likely develop into the
middle Rio Grande Valley around sunrise Sunday as large scale east-west
pressure gradient develops prior to cold air advection associated with the actual
frontal passage.

A couple of fairly active days in store Monday and Tuesday as
low-level S-southeasterly flow develops and the upper high shifts south
over West Texas. Overall pattern change in store Wednesday and beyond
as deep upper low over/near the Great Lakes drops in and begins to
shove the upper high center westward. Another backdoor front brings in
a resurgence of low level moisture Wednesday evening/night.
Long-lived Ely surface flow will keep moisture coming into the state
from the east and with lowering heights/temperatures aloft...scattered to
numerous showers and storms are likely to result. GFS and European model (ecmwf)
also indicating that precipitable waters from the low level Ely stream will rise
above the 1.20-1.25" threshold Thursday through Saturday...making
more widespread flash flooding a concern.

33

&&

Fire weather...
no real significant changes. Middle level high is currently stretched
across over central/southern nm eastward over the Red River valley.
Main monsoonal plume based on WV imagery currently over southern
cal/Arizona/Great Basin and Colorado. Pocket of drier and more
stable air lies within the high itself. Little more cloud cover
today compared to yesterday this time based on low level moisture
seepage below the high. Fairly strong subsidence inversion keeping
storm coverage limited however. Best chance of wetting
rain...although small footprint would be found across the north.

No real significant changes through the weekend. Moisture will
continue to seep into the upper high on Saturday. Looking at a
little more storm coverage across the north and west. Remaining
small footprints of wetting rain. Humidity values should come up
slightly. Temperatures would remain above normal. Wind speeds should
generally be 10 miles per hour or less outside of downdrafts/outflows.

Still looking at a significant moisture push via a back door cold
front from the northeast on Sunday. Perhaps a teaser push Saturday
night. The low levels will see a significant rise in
humidity/dewpoints as Sunday progresses into Sunday night. This will
fuel an increase in storm coverage as well as wetting rain
potential. Based on the models the past few days...storm coverage
should favor western and northern areas both Sunday/Monday. Models
paint a linger stable/drier layer across southeast and perhaps
central portions of the forecast area. Curious as to how that will
unfold...otherwise confidence very high for increased humidity and
wetting storm coverage.

Tuesday looks to be a recycle day although with moisture trapped
within a weakening high. Thus have to figure widespread storm
coverage with some wetting rain potential. Humidity values could
lower slightly but not much. High temperatures should be near to slightly
below normal.

Another vigorous back door cold front is projected to undercut the
upper high on Wednesday. Models have been consistent with this
prediction the past couple of days. Wetting thunderstorms should
increase as a result. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) very bullish for strong
signatures of rainfall late next week into the weekend. It is very
possible that the main monsoonal moisture plume flowing around the
upper high could merge with the low level moisture burst from the
back door cold front to produce abundant atmospheric humidity. This
solution is favored by both models as they both bring a weak upper
trough to the West Coast during this period. A classic signature for
focusing the monsoonal stream over our area. Will have to wait an
see but certainly possible based on the time of year. The upcoming period
could end up providing the most robust rainfall results we have seen
up to this point during the Summer thunderstorm season.

50

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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