Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
926 PM MST Friday Nov 27 2015
adjusted probability of precipitation tonight to favor far southern and eastern areas.
Lowered or removed probability of precipitation elsewhere. Left highlights as is.
Additional precipitation will be scarce but public impacts will
remain with any untreated roads icy.
Previous discussion...511 PM MST Friday Nov 27 2015...
00z taf cycle
widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and periods of frozen
or freezing precipitation will continue tonight into Saturday. Freezing
precipitation will favor locations along and southeast of a line from ktcc to ksrr.
East and southeast upslope flow is expected to shift out of the S as
Saturday progresses...allowing temperatures to warm...ceilings to
rise and precipitation to change over to rain by the afternoon.
Previous discussion...328 PM MST Friday Nov 27 2015...
a plume of subtropical moisture will continue to override shallow
cold air across eastern New Mexico tonight. Conditions will
gradually improve Saturday morning as the moisture gets pushed
eastward. Temperatures will modify some Saturday ahead of a
mainly dry cold front which will move from northwest to southeast
across the state late-day Sunday into Sunday night. A few snow
showers will accompany the front across northern New Mexico Sunday
and Sunday night. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages Monday
and Tuesday...modifying somewhat by mid-week.
subtropical moisture plume continues to stream from SW to NE
across southern and eastern nm this afternoon. Plume was about 75-100
miles too far east to bring snow northern and central nm last
night and today. Moisture plume pushes east late tonight as
closed low over the great starts to move eastward. Lowered
precipitation chances Saturday as a result but held on to chance
probability of precipitation along the east slopes of the Central Mountain chain and across the
east-central and southeast plains given the fact the a 120kt subtropical
jet remains overhead and keeps an east-west surface gradient in place
through the day.
Trailing upper level short-wave over the eastern Pacific attempts to
phase with the closed low sliding east through the Great Basin
Saturday night and Sunday...getting picked up slung northeastward
(fujiwharaed) around across northwestern nm. This interaction strengthens
the subtropical jet across western and southern nm Sunday...generating a
surface low and scattered snow showers for the northern mountains and NE
plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Dry...cool and breezy conditions
are on tap for Monday behind the associated surface cold front.
Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree that another mainly dry upper level
trough will slide through nm Tuesday night and Wednesday. This
feature expected to keep a cool low level northerly flow in place across
the state. Models also agree that tranquil conditions will develop under
a ridge of high pressure aloft Thursday and SW flow aloft Friday.
12z and 18z GFS coming around to the European model (ecmwf) solution for next
weekend...carving out a closed low across the southwest U.S.
Accompanied by a backdoor cold front.
cooler and unsettled weather will continue through
Sunday night. Gusty northwest flow will be the main highlight on
Monday as temperatures remain below normal but dry conditions
prevail. Temperatures will slowly warm Tuesday/Wednesday but latest
forecast calls for continued below normal temperatures. Wind speeds will be
much less Tuesday and that appears to be the case on Wednesday
although a weak disturbance is depicted to move over the area by
both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) and Canadian models. Models appear to be
pretty consistent through midweek next week. A dry and warmer
transient ridge is projected for Thursday ahead of another Pacific
Due to the cool surface conditions mixing heights will be on the
lower side Saturday with some improvement across the western half on
Sunday. Ventilation rates will follow the mixing height improvement
and become much higher across the western half Sunday. Pockets of
poor ratings are projected Monday but appear to be limited in
coverage at this time. This is largely due to the stronger northwest
transport wind projection. Based on the much lighter transport
wind...ratings should tank on Tuesday and likely remain low on
Wed/Thu. Wednesday is Worth watching...if the upper level
disturbance were to track further north then ratings should
increase. Ratings would trend higher due to the approach of the
Pacific system late next week.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 am MST Saturday for the following
Ice Storm Warning until 5 am MST Saturday for the following zones...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am MST Saturday for the following
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the following