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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1117 PM MDT sun Aug 31 2014

06z taf cycle
northern and central New Mexico continues to observe VFR
conditions with mostly clear skies. Breezy to windy conditions have
subsided...and will not be as strong on Monday. Otherwise expect
another round of fair weather cumulus clouds to develop
Monday afternoon.



Previous discussion...258 PM MDT sun Aug 31 2014...
dry in the short term then increasing moisture and precipitation
chances from Wednesday through next weekend. West to northwest
flow aloft to weaken the next couple of days as high pressure
strengthens over the land of enchantment. Dry and seasonably warm
temperatures will continue through Tuesday...despite a couple of
weak back door fronts into the northeast tonight and Monday night.
By Wednesday the high center will have shifted east allowing
moisture to arrive from the south. This increase in moisture will
be more of a seepage rather than a sudden burst. But by the end of
the week precipitation should be widespread across northern and
central New Mexico...thanks also to a decent back door front into
the east with added low level moisture.


dry and warm to hot the rule today. Only some cumulus clouds over
the north and southeast zones. Gusty winds also the story today.
Numerous gusts of 35 to 40 miles per hour observed across the forecast area.
Winds will subside tonight although they will hold up some on the
higher mountain tops. With generally clear skies valley locations
will drop sharply with 30 to 40 degree diurnal temperatures common.

It will remain basically dry with above normal temperatures Monday
and Tuesday. A few record highs will be challenged again on Monday.
But highs will not be as extreme in the northeast on Labor Day due
to a back door cold front sneaking into this area. Highs will be a
hand full of degrees lower. A better effort Monday night from the
back door front will drop temperatures a few degrees more over all
the eastern plains. But moisture will be lacking behind the fronts
and no measurable rain is forecast. There is a hint of middle level
moisture creeping into the state Tuesday...perhaps enough for some
virga showers over the Gila and northern mountains.

The moisture increase will be a little greater Wednesday...with a
sharper increase on Thursday and Friday. The bulk of the showers
and thunderstorms Thursday will be over the western and central
mountains. A stronger back door cold front will be poised to
enter eastern New Mexico Thursday night. This will add low level
moisture to increase in the east along with upslope flow. That
will get the east involved in the precipitation...with widespread
rain expected Friday...with the best chances over the western and
northern mountains.

Next weekend will remain active with widespread showers and storms
continuing. The upper high will try and build back over nm during
this time...but plenty of moisture trapped under the high will keep
convection going over most of the forecast area. Chj


Fire weather...
dry...warm and windy conditions will be in place for the remainder
of the day...then less wind and cooler temperatures all zones on
Monday and across the east on Tuesday. A pattern change middle week
and into the weekend will support an increase in the chances of
precipitation late in the work week and into the weekend. Few
changes to the forecast except for some minor adjustments in the
extended period.

Broad trough with embedded short wave is currently crossing The
Rockies...with near zonal flow over New Mexico. The stronger
gradient in addition to Lee troughing has resulted in gusty west to
southwest winds today...especially across the northeast quadrant of
the state. Winds will diminish after sunset becoming mainly west to
northwest after midnight. Overnight relative humidity recoveries to be mostly fair
to good with the worst recoveries near the central valleys and east
Central Plains.

Little change Monday into Tuesday as the center of the upper level
high drifts to the north over New Mexico. Dry conditions persist
but temperatures cool a bit and winds decrease all zones on Monday
and mainly east on Tuesday where winds will shift to the north or
northwest. Ventilation decreases each day but remains generally
good to excellent. Mostly fair to good overnight recoveries...with
areas of excellent across the east.

By late Tuesday an upper low will develop over the Pacific northwest
with with deeper troughing along the West Coast in place by
Wednesday and moving little over the next several days. The upper
high shifts east of New Mexico. At this point...Arizona looks
favored for the monsoon plume on Wednesday...but isolated wetting
rain could develop over the southwest high terrain. The pattern
shifts to the east on Thursday with increased chances of wetting
rain developing and persisting into the weekend...mainly central and
west zones Thursday and Friday then expanding to the northeast over
the weekend. Latest run of the GFS looks wetter and more in line
with the European...and both models now are in agreement with moist
return flow into the east starting Friday and into the weekend...
thus grids modified to reflect this. Ventilation remains good to
excellent Wednesday and Thursday but decreases Friday and
Saturday...with fair values southwest and northeast. Overnight relative humidity
recoveries to increase Wednesday through Saturday with mostly good
to excellent recoveries by the weekend. 05


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