Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
520 am MDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014

Aviation...
12z taf cycle

The arrival of a much drier and more stable air mass will keep
VFR conditions over northern and central New Mexico. Only a few
batches of high clouds are expected with light to moderate
afternoon breezes at the surface. Some stronger winds aloft
downwind of ridge tops and peaks could introduce some wave
activity aloft.

52

&&

Previous discussion...304 am MDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014...
synopsis...
the 2014 monsoon season is coming to an end and dry air is
overtaking the region. An upper level disturbance will push east
across the southern rockies Wednesday night...bringing a few
showers or thunderstorms to the northern mountains and locations
near the Colorado border. This disturbance will push a cold front
through Wednesday night and Thursday will be cooler...with high
temperatures an average 5 degrees below normal across the area.
A warming trend is forecast to begin Friday...with temperatures
increasing to above normal areawide through the weekend and into
early next week as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the
southwest U.S.

&&

Discussion...
the latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level
trough pulling NE away from New Mexico with dry air moving in
behind it...and the next trough pushing east-southeast into the Pacific
northwest. In between troughs today...temperatures will be below
normal northwest and above normal southeast under sunny skies. The
next trough will remain an open wave and will push east across the
southern rockies and northern New Mexico late Wednesday into early
Thursday morning. Sufficient moisture will remain for a few high-
based showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across the
northern mountains and northwest. Snow levels will lower Wednesday
night with the trough passage to include the higher peaks of the
sangre Delaware cristo and Tusas Mountains. A dusting to a couple inches
of snow are possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning across
the aforementioned peaks. A cold front will accompany the trough
Wednesday night and Thursday will be cooler...especially across
the eastern plains. Breezy to locally windy conditions are
forecast behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday morning...
making for a chilly fall feel to the air Thursday morning.

For Friday through the weekend...a warming trend is forecast as a
ridge of high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Highs
will go above normal areawide Saturday and stay there through
Monday with a very dry airmass in place.

11

&&

Fire weather...
a farewell to the monsoon was in order last evening as stronger
westerly flow and a Pacific front pushed through New Mexico. Much
drier and more stable air has moved in with slightly cooler
temperatures. This will keep mostly clear skies over the state with
just moderate west/southwest breezes going over the forecast area
today. The boundary layer flow will be sufficient for fair to good
ventilation this afternoon...and minimum relative humidity will fall to the 15 to
25 percent range for most zones. Cool temperatures can be expected
tonight along with some freezing readings in the higher terrain and
good relative humidity recovery in the 60 to 80 percent range.

On Wednesday the westerly flow aloft will strengthen as a short wave
trough...currently originating from British Columbia...dives
southeast toward nm. The trough axis will still not have traversed
The Rockies by late Wednesday afternoon...but some moderate westerly
breezes will ensue late in the day. Temperatures will be a couple
degrees either side of normal on Wednesday...and relative humidity will again fall
to the 15 to 25 percent range with excellent ventilation rates. The
trough will cross The Rockies Wednesday night/Thursday
morning...dragging another cold front into nm to drop readings back
below normal most areas Thursday. Some scant showers will also
accompany the trough Wednesday into Thursday across the northern
tier of nm with just a dusting of High Peak snow possible. Winds
will also become gusty along and just behind the frontal
passage...especially in the plains.

By Friday high pressure aloft takes residence over the upper Gulf of
California...allowing northwesterlies aloft to decrease over nm
while pressure heights rise. Temperatures will rise Friday and
Saturday...flat-lining by Sunday. The proximity of the high to the
SW of nm will keep winds light. Some poor ventilation concerns will
show up in central to western zones Friday...but the warming
temperatures and rising mixing heights will allow better rates to
develop into the weekend. High pressure should hold over the
American SW through the middle of next week when relatively light
zonal flow finally erodes it away.

52

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations