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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
300 PM MST sun Feb 14 2016

Synopsis...

Dry through the middle of next week with above average temperatures.
Highs will be somewhat cooler again Monday with occasionally gusty
winds...but undergo a day to day warming trend thereafter.
Thursday looks to be the warmest day of next week...with highs
potentially reaching into the 80s in the southeast plains. Windy
conditions also possible Thursday...along with a few showers near
the Colorado border. Potential for critical fire weather conditions
exists Thursday afternoon across portions of the central and east.
Forecast models continue to indicate a more unsettled weather
pattern is possible late this week.

&&

Discussion...

Much more cirrus today...but current temperatures running cooler as
anticipated. Models suggest some of the clouds will thin out tonight
but not terribly confident based on satellite imagery...so ratcheted
up coverage in sky grid for at least the northeast third to half of
the forecast area. Otherwise...potential continues for some gusty
northwest Ridgetop winds across the central Montana chain tonight...and
GFS maintaining a 45 to 50 knots 700 mb wind briefly this evening along the
lam to cqc corridor.

The flow of high clouds gradually tapers off as the upper ridge
shifts directly over New Mexico by midweek. High temperatures
undergo a day to day warming trend overall Tuesday through
Wednesday. The mostly wind bag of a system Thursday makes Thursday
the warmest day of the week for the central and east...and lowers
afternoon humidities...leading to critical fire weather potential in
portions of the eastern plains/Central Highlands. Highs Thursday
look to range from around 12 to over 20 degrees above average. There
may be a few higher terrain showers near the Colorado border in northwest
nm Thursday/Thursday night but still some uncertainty.

12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS in better agreement that some subtropical
moisture/disturbance may impact the forecast area Friday/Friday
night. Went ahead and added some slight chance probability of precipitation to the central
and western high terrain. The two models are also in much better
agreement for next Sunday/Monday with a disturbance/cold front
affecting central and eastern New Mexico...so made some changes
there as well. Thereafter...the upper ridge shifts toward the Great
Basin/rockies...leading to warmer than normal and dry weather.

&&

Fire weather...

Relatively warm and dry weather still looks to persist over nm
through at least the first half of the week. A short wave trough
exited the northern mountains and trekked into the Great Plains
overnight with another perturbation expected to do the same tonight.
This will leave stronger northwest flow over nm. In addition...a
cold front invaded the state early this morning...helping to drive
northwesterly winds into the western half of the state. While many
lower elevation areas will likely see a decreasing trend to the
winds late this evening...the higher ridge tops and downwind
locations will are forecast to observe periodic gustiness tonight as
the gradient aloft stays fairly strong. Maximum relative humidity will be highly
variable tonight with best recoveries in the north central to
northwestern zones.

Northwest flow aloft will slowly decrease on Monday with some
moderate breeziness persisting at the surface/20ft level...primarily
over the central and west Central Highlands. With Lee side troughing
in the plains...there will be a southwesterly wind component in the
plains that will boost temperatures. The majority of the forecast
area will observe minimum relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Latest ventilation
forecast is more pessimistic for Monday with poor dispersion rates
painted over much of central to western nm.

A ridge aloft redevelops over the southwestern states Tuesday and
Wednesday...keeping dry and warm conditions in the forecast.
Temperatures will soar 10 to 15 degrees above average Tuesday and a
few degrees higher on Wednesday. Despite the rising
temperatures...mixing heights will remain too low for any
ventilation benefits...thus widespread poor ventilation rates are
expected each day.

A pattern shift is then advertised for Thursday as the ridge aloft
breaks down in response to a Pacific low that will open up and cross
over the central/northern rockies. Most of the precipitation appears
to divert north of nm...but a strengthening gradient aloft and Lee
side surface cyclogenesis will induce windy conditions along with
critical relative humidity and above normal temperatures. The Central Highlands of
nm to the northeastern plains of the state would be at risk for
several hours of widespread critical fire weather conditions
Thursday afternoon. Fuels are believed to be supportive of
watch/warning statements for Thursday due to the loading of fine
fuels during last years growing season and the curing that has been
going on this winter...especially in the recent dry stretch.

Forecast models have converged to better agreement for Friday
through next weekend. Some spotty precipitation would be possible
Friday due to a weak disturbance aloft...and then a strong back door
cold front is depicted to arrive by next Sunday.

52

&&

Aviation...
18z taf cycle
periodic high cirrus will be the only clouds moving into New
Mexico over the next 24 hours...and VFR conditions will prevail at
all airports within the forecast area. Some gusty northwest winds
will develop today...mainly from the northwestern corner to the
central sections of the state...and higher terrain locations will
be most susceptible to some gusts of 30 to 40 knots. Winds will
diminish into the evening in lower elevations...but could stay
gusty along and downwind of ridge tops well into early Monday
morning.

52

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 27 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 16 49 17 52 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 24 52 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 23 59 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 22 56 21 62 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 23 61 22 67 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 26 59 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 29 69 30 73 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 21 47 20 50 / 0 5 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 33 54 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 29 54 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 22 49 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 17 44 16 48 / 0 5 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 16 46 15 49 / 0 5 0 0
Taos............................ 23 52 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 26 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 26 61 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 28 54 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 29 57 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque foothills........... 33 60 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque heights............. 35 62 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque valley.............. 30 64 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 64 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 32 65 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 32 62 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 34 68 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 32 58 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 60 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 30 55 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 33 59 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 33 63 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 34 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 24 58 26 61 / 5 0 0 0
Raton........................... 24 61 25 64 / 5 0 0 0
Springer........................ 25 61 28 65 / 5 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 27 59 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 30 64 33 65 / 5 0 0 0
Roy............................. 29 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 30 65 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 32 66 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 34 68 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 35 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 37 67 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 34 67 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 35 70 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 37 67 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 34 62 33 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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