Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
548 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
00z taf cycle
area of showers and tstsm most likely associated with weak upper
trough over eastern nm should continue to track to the NE and slowly
diminish after 03z. Brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities in rain possible with
this activity. West of the central Montana chain...isolated light showers
should also diminish after 03z. Otherwise...higher terrain will be
obscured in MVFR to IFR ceilings after 06z from the east slopes of the
central Montana chain and over portions of the eastern plains as low
level moisture remains plentiful.
Previous discussion...318 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014...
an upper level trough approaching from the west will cross New
Mexico early Wednesday and force the recent moist and relatively
cool pattern out of the area. An unseasonably strong dome of high
pressure will build over the area Thursday and Friday...bringing
well above normal temperatures...dry conditions...and light winds.
Overnight temperatures will still be cool but still above late
October normals. The ridge will break down by Sunday...ushering in
breezy and cooler conditions through Monday. The next potential
storm system will attempt to slide into the region early next week.
main changes to forecast package included tapering back shower and
storm chances over central/western nm tonight and Wednesday. Added
some fog in Moreno Valley tonight and into the Pecos Valley tmrw
night. Also raised temperatures well above consensus guidance over the
plains Friday and Saturday to come in line better with significantly
warmer temperatures from West Texas offices.
The 2030z water vapor imagery shows a well defined upper trough axis
racing east into the Desert Southwest...with a sharp punch of dry
air in its wake. The surface front in association with this system
is lagging over central Nevada and northwest Utah. The entire upper trough
feature is shown by models to essentially shear apart and lift well
north into the northern plains through Wednesday night. This will
leave nm in generally weak quasi-zonal flow through Thursday. All in
all this has trended faster so have followed suit and lowered pop
values most areas west of the central Montana chain. The east will likely
remain socked in low clouds and showers through the 1st part of
An unseasonably strong 591dm 500 mb high center will develop over the
desert SW by late Thursday...and bring some really spectacular
weather to our region through Saturday. A partial solar eclipse
visible within nm late Thursday afternoon should have very nice
viewing conditions. Trended temperatures up a couple degrees Thursday...and
especially Friday and Saturday across the east to account for much
warmer readings from the West Texas offices. Very light winds aloft...
surface dewpoints in the 40s...minimal surface Lee troughing over
the plains...and late October sun would limit potential for temperatures
above records...but will get another chance to revisit later.
Lee troughing will be notable Saturday so that could actually be the
warmest day for the east. Timing on the ridge break down has become
more disjointed between models...so confidence decreases on the
pattern through the weekend. Sunday is prognosticated to be the breeziest
for the east with stronger Lee troughing...while the west cools off.
Beyond the weekend...models are flip/flopping on a potential winter
storm system by middle week.
atmosphere remains very moist across southeast and S central sections of
forecast area...not as moist elsewhere but still more so than normal for
this time of year. Most numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage
rest of afternoon into tonight should be across southeast and east central
sections. Drier Wednesday...though still some isolated showers and storms
a possibility across mainly the southeast plains and Sacramento Mountains
vicinity. Thereafter a warming and further drying trend beginning as
a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Upper low earlier
near the bootheel is slowly opening up into a wave and should slowly
ease across S central into southeast nm between tonight and middle morning Wednesday.
Broader but fairly weak upper trough will help usher that system
east of the state later Wednesday...aiding transition to drier conditions
and significantly lower dewpoints. Strengthening upper ridge coming
into the state Wednesday night through Friday. As a result minimum humidity
will trend down as high temperatures trend up to above normal Thursday
and Friday. This pattern will also create poor ventilation across much
of the area late in the week...especially in valleys where
temperature inversions will be stubborn or slow to break. Areas east
of Central Mountain chain and near to south of Interstate 40 may still
see fair to good rates Wednesday and Thursday...lowering a bit Friday. Rates no
better and generally lower elsewhere.
A very sharp increase in transport winds...mixing heights and thus
vent rates over the weekend as the ridge shifts east as winds aloft
increase noticeably and a deepening Lee side trough takes shape.
While near surface winds reach critical levels in some spots...mainly
portions of central and NE Highlands as well as portions of west
central nm. At this time still looks like min relative humidity looks to stay above
critical threshold...but this will be watched closely with newer
forecast model runs as Sunday may end up with some potential for between
1 and 3 hours of critical fire weather conditions across the