Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
617 am MDT Sat may 18 2013
Aviation...
12z taf cycle
high clouds this morning give way to heating induced middle level clouds
and buildups midday through the afternoon. Scattered to widely scattered high
based -shra and a few -tsra to develop mainly north of a line from
Glenwood to Clines Corners this afternoon under approaching colder pool
aloft. Stil ceilings should remain VFR. Aforementioned convection...
especially stronger cells...likely to produce brief and localized
downburst gusts between 35 and 50 kts and that is to a degree
accounted for in fmn...gup and saf taf tempo groups associated
with marginal vcsh in prevailing groups. Note that tempo group for
convective gusts not currently included in abq taf due to fact
that there is virtually no chance for any true vicinity rain showers...vcsh...
to reach ground there...yet strong convective gusts still
possible middle afternoon to very early evening. Just cannot include tempo
group for convective gusts as at least vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity must be mentioned
in associated prevailing group. Surface pressure gradient and strong
vertical mixing will create non convective southwest wind gusts
to near or a little over 30 kts in most tafs for the afternoon.
Visibilities locally reduced in blowing dust in stronger gusts.
Winds decreasing after 01z or 02z this evening.
43
&&
Previous discussion...339 am MDT Sat may 18 2013...
made only minor changes from the previous forecast to account for
a slightly more southern trough axis with the secondary wave late
Monday/Tuesday. Currently an upper trough axis shifting east across
the Great Basin is spreading an abundance of middle and upper level
cloud cover over western nm. Meanwhile a very well defined dryline
is positioned immediately along the Texas/nm border. Dewpoints to the
west of the dryline are in the 10s and 20s...with even some single
digits around the Rio Grande Valley. The 00z NAM solution continues
to advertise convection breaking out over the northern/western high
terrain after about 2 PM. Surface dewpoints will struggle into the
20s so more showers with gusts up to 50 miles per hour are likely. The GFS is
much drier however it still shows similar instability. Isolated storms
are also possible.
The Pacific front currently over western Utah will slide east
into the Rio Grande Valley by late afternoon...ushering in cooler
temperatures. 700mb temperatures fall from +14c currently to +8c at 00z then +4c
by 12z Sunday...which is nearly 1 Standard deviation below climatology.
This will lead to some cool temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings for
the northern and western valleys where freezes are possible. The
upper trough axis will shear across northern nm and spread strong
middle and upper level winds over the state for an extended period
into Monday. Critical fire conditions are expected each afternoon
especially for central and eastern nm. Some concerns about wind
advisories for Sunday across the east but will continue to monitor
MOS guidance trends. Some light precipitation will be possible as well
across the far northern mts.
A weak shortwave ridge will slide over the area Tuesday as the
upper wave exits and another trough takes shape along the West Coast.
Hot temperatures will develop for areas within central and eastern
nm right on time for the third week of may. Our first 90f reading
in the abq metropolitan is forecast now on Thursday the 23rd...which is
only 4 days ahead of the average first date.
Big questions continue on what will happen with the dryline by
late next week across the eastern plains. Models have been very
consistent with the feature shifting west into the plains by
Thursday while the upper trough deepens down the West Coast. So of
course as many of US around here have been thinking...models are
beginning to trend farther east with a drier more sheared trough
ejecting into The Rockies. Guyer
Fire weather...
..extended period of critical fire weather today through Monday...
After some overnight wind speed reduction...the upcoming daylight
hours will bring much increased mixing down of some higher wind
speeds aloft and surface pressure gradients will tighten a bit as well.
Result will be increasing surface winds beginning middle to late morning and
continuing into the afternoon. This will result in critical fire weather
conditions developing across across the east...south and some
central portions of forecast area throughout the afternoon. Thus red flag
warnings continued for these areas. Most of this area will see min
relative humidity readings crater into the single digits. Afternoon temperatures across the
east 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normal. A few to perhaps locally
scattered thunderstorms...more dry than wet...expected over the northwest
mountains including Montana Taylor...chuskas...tusas and jemez after
noon. As is usual expect relatively brief and gusty outflow winds
from the stronger convection...perhaps between 40 and 55 miles per hour.
Sunday to be fairly close to todays pattern with the wind
parameters...though critical level wind speeds just a bit reduced from
today. Thunderstorm potential is a little less and shifted a little
farther to east. Maximum relative humidity values increase with fair overnight
recoveries expected majority of area. Afternoon temperatures to trend
down by several degrees NE half...but little changed elsewhere. Wind
speeds will again increase middle morning through at least early afternoon...
especially eastern nm. Again expecting several hours of critical
fire weather conditions across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and
from east slopes Central Mountain chain eastward. Mixing heights lower
some on Sunday but still portrayed to be above normal for this time
of year.
Monday still brings some continued fair overnight relative humidity recoveries.
Daytime highs trending just a few degrees lower still from Sunday
highs. While a smaller area is impacted...there is still enough wind
and low enough minimum relative humidity to create some lower grade critical fire
weather conditions from east Central Plains west to east slopes Sandia
and Manzano Mountains and also perhaps including middle Rio Grande Valley
during the afternoon. Any precipitation should be confined to near
the Colorado border. Min relative humidity values in the teens and single digits
expected with continued excellent ventilation rates in all but
perhaps far NE nm. Back door cold front to slide down the eastern
plains Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning...bringing some increase in dewpoints
in its wake.
Models show this front making its way to near or a little ways
either side of the Central Mountain chain by early Tuesday. Still indications
are that wind will ease off some on Tuesday. No significant
precipitation is expected. By middle week models are hinting at a
deep upper level low pressure system over the Pacific northwest making its
way southward causing south to southwest winds to strengthen over
the state. Models still show some dryline thunderstorms backing into
eastern portion of nm...but still some disagreement between GFS and
European model as to how far west enough moisture increase can get
and thus how far west this activity would develop. Thus confidence
is still lower than is preferred late next week. 43
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones...nmz103-104-106>109.
Red flag warning from 10 am to 9 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones...nmz103-104-106>108.
&&
$$
