Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
613 PM MDT Friday Aug 28 2015
00z taf cycle
scattered ts/rain showers will favor eastern and southern areas this
evening...then a few isolated cells may linger after midnight mainly
S of I-40. Look for spottier cells with smaller wetting
footprints north of Highway 60 from the Continental Divide east to the central Montana
chain...where a mixture of wet and dry microbursts are expected.
A back door cold front...that will push southwestward through S central
areas this evening...will push through west areas tonight increasing
humidities there for Saturday. Ts will favor the Continental Divide and
central Montana chain Saturday. Differences between the models on
placement of the center of the upper high for Saturday make it
difficult to pin down the direction of storm motion. Airports near
mts have a chance of getting hit by ts/rain showers Saturday afternoon and
Previous discussion...306 PM MDT Friday Aug 28 2015...
a fairly active monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist through
at least the middle of next week before trending down a bit...
favoring central and especially western portions of New Mexico.
Temperatures will generally be near normal central and west...and
above normal east.
the 12z kabq upper air sounding showed a precipitable water of 0.91 inch...down
from 1.17 inch from 24hrs prior but still above normal for late
August. As of 2pm MDT...a week backdoor front was banked against
the Central Mountain chain and is resulting in some minor
cooling/moistening per the 24hr change values on the temperature and
dewpoint temperature observation. More than anything...the mild upslope will help
to feed storms developing along the Central Mountain chain...
making for longer-lived updrafts and more intense storms than what
we saw yesterday. Motion is toward the S-southeast so far today and
matches well with the latest kabx VAD wind profile. Expecting
gusty East Canyon winds in the Rio Grande Valley early this
evening from the storm outflow/cooling-enhanced backdoor front.
The backdoor front will progress west to near the Arizona border
tonight and recharge moisture across areas that have experienced
some drying over the past 36 hours...setting the stage for an
active thunderstorm period this weekend. The eastern plains will
mostly miss-out on rain this weekend...but central and western
areas will benefit. Best chances will be across the Southwest
Mountains...where locally heavy rainfall amounts up to two inches
are not out of the question on Saturday or Sunday. High
temperatures will generally be near normal central and west
through the weekend...and above normal east.
An active monsoon thunderstorm pattern will continue next week...
perhaps sharpening up middle to late week as the upper high and
associated ridge axis shifts slightly eastward with a fairly
potent West Coast trough developing. Temperatures will generally
remain near normal central and west...and above normal east for
the foreseeable future.
weak backdoor front/boundary has backed up against the east slopes
of the Central Mountain chain. Thunderstorms will continue to
develop and drift slowly south through the evening hours. The rain
cooled air east of the central mountains will send the front westward
into the Rio Grande Valley and points west this evening and
overnight. Latest NAM model indicating storms will develop west of
the rgv around sunset as the low level flow is forced uphill toward
Favored area for thunderstorms will shift westward somewhat on Saturday.
Favored areas will be the SW mountains north along The Divide...then
east to the northern mountains. As The Four Corners high strengthens
somewhat and inches eastward Saturday night and Sunday...flow at mountain
top level becomes southwesterly and begins to transport relatively deep
moisture from southern Arizona northeastward into nm. Latest model trend is
farther west with the better moisture...favoring the northwestern third or
so of the state.
Moisture plume shift eastward somewhat Monday...favoring the vast
majority of the northern two thirds of nm. GFS and European model (ecmwf) have
swapped solutions with regard to Tuesday through the end of the work
week. GFS keeps the upper high farther north and consequently the
drier air over Arizona west of the state whereas the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian models
are farther south with the high center...allowing a dry southwest
flow aloft to penetrate into northern nm. Given the model flip flopping
of late...confidence Tuesday and beyond remain low. Small changes
in the position of the center of the upper high will make all the
difference as to whether conditions remain active or dry out
Weak transport winds result in poor to fair vent rates over the
weekend...improving to the good to excellent range early next