Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
207 PM akst Tuesday Dec 1 2015
a long wave trough over Mainland Alaska with a ridge over western
Canada will retrograde through the weekend. This means that low
flow now over northern Alaska will turn more southwest by the
weekend. This should cause temperatures to increase slowly by the
850 mb temperatures range from -4c over the Alaska Range to -20c
along the eastern Arctic coast. Temperatures will cool about 4c
Wednesday and another few degrees c Thursday. Any precipitation should be
a 1032 mb high north of the Arctic coast of Alaska will persist
An occluded front stretching from Cordova to Mayo will move to
Anchorage to Eagle by 3am Wednesday...to Denali to Circle by 3pm
Wednesday...and then weakening in place through Friday. An area of snow
along the front will spread northwest along the front. Expect
about 1 inch of snow with this. May see 2 inches from Denali to
Circle where the front stalls from Wed-Fri.
A 996 mb low just west of St Matthew island will persist through
3pm Wednesday...then move to the Yukon Delta by Thursday. Scattered snow
showers with this feature will become isolated as the low moves
A strong low near Kamchatka will move east to the western Gulf of
Alaska by Thursday night/Fri. This combined with the high north of the
Arctic coast will keep a strong gradient over the Arctic coast and
northern interior and Chukchi Sea coast through Friday.
models initialize a bit low on h500 heights over Mainland Alaska.
Models show similar pattern through Thursday though GFS a bit lower
heights than other models. Prefer GFS since the models initialized
a bit too high.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz220-pkz225.
Gale Warning for pkz220-pkz225.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Jb Dec 15