Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
117 PM akst Thursday Nov 20 2014
a broad upper level low complex spread across the Aleutians will
wobble around and slowly migrate eastward into the Gulf of Alaska
by early next week. Further north...high pressure aloft will
persist over the Arctic but gradually weaken over the weekend as a
cold upper level trough approaches from the russian Arctic. All
models are in agreement with cooler air aloft trickling in from
the northeast across the forecast area bringing temperatures down
to more normal levels by this weekend. This pattern will continue
to result in relatively dry conditions across much of the forecast
area with little or no snow accumulation. The models do allude to
a more active and snowier pattern later next week...fingers
At the surface...a strong 953 mb low pressure center southwest of
Kodiak Island will drift northwest into Bristol Bay tonight and
eventually weaken over the Alaska Peninsula. High pressure
extending from the Arctic Ocean southeast into the Yukon and
northwest territories will continue to build southward. The
pressure gradient will tighten between the Bristol Bay low and
Arctic high and result in frisky east to northeast winds across
the interior. Otherwise a weather front draped across the North
Slope will dissipate this evening and snowfall will taper off.
North Slope...blizzard conditions and low visibility in blowing
snow are expected to improve some this afternoon and evening as
falling snow tapers off. Although east winds ranging 20 to 40 miles per hour
with higher gusts will persist over much of the Arctic coast from
Barrow to Kaktovik the next several days. So there will still be
some blowing snow but visibility should remain greater than 1/2
West Coast...relatively quiet through the weekend with partly to
mostly cloudy skies and a cooling trend. A weather front
associated with the Bristol Bay low will rotate west across the
lower Yukon valley tonight and bring a little snow and a chance
for some light freezing rain to that area.
Interior....a tightening surface gradient will increase east to
northeast winds 20 t0 35 miles per hour over summits and in the usually
channeled areas tonight through Saturday. Cold advection and
upslope flow should produce some flurries or snow showers along
the northeast side of the Tanana Yukon uplands and southern Yukon
Flats tonight. A weak disturbance moving north from the Gulf of
Alaska into the interior Saturday night may bring a little snow
across the central and eastern interior...including
Fairbanks...but amounts at this point look very light.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Blizzard Warning for akz203-akz204.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz202.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Gale Warning for pkz240-pkz245.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz230-pkz235.
Ewp Nov 14