Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
348 PM akdt Monday may 20 2013
Discussion...
aloft...strong ridge building over interior through Tuesday then
drifting East. Ridge will bring warming of the air mass to northern
Alaska. Low over southern Bering Sea moving to Bering Strait Wednesday
evening and to central Chukchi Sea Thursday afternoon. Second low
moving to Bering Strait Thursday afternoon. Low forming over southern
Yukon territory Wednesday drifting north to western northwest
territories Thursday afternoon.
Surface...995 mb low over the central Aleutians moving north to
Saint Matthew Island 4am Wednesday...and to the chukotsk peninsula 4pm
Thursday at 1007 mb. Weather front from Nunivak Island to King Salmon
moving to Cape Lisburne and along western Brooks range 4am Tuesday.
Second weather front moving to Gambell to Nunivak Island noon Tuesday
and to lisburne to Unalakleet 4am Wednesday. 1039 mb high over Alaska
Canada border drifting east through Wednesday. Thermal trough developing
early Thursday from east of Fort Yukon to Northway.
Models...agree OK in short term except for upper low moving north
over western Canada...GFS and European model (ecmwf) are much deeper on feature
than NAM. European model (ecmwf) is also faster than GFS. In medium term GFS has
gotten in line with the European model (ecmwf) in regard to maintaining a ridge
over northern Alaska and and upper Low Ridge building over Alaska during
the weekend.
North Slope...snow and sometimes rain...over western Arctic coast
and possibly northern Arctic coast tonight and Tuesday...also higher
terrain of western and central Brooks range. Otherwise dry. Gusty
south winds in western Brooks range passes at least into Tuesday.
Temperatures warming through Wednesday.
Western Alaska...continued Winter Storm Warning for snow for
northern 207 this evening and for 208 through the night...but
eventually it should taper off and warm up some. Additional 1 to
4 inches expected...highest inland north of Noatak. Otherwise some
periods of rain and wet snow with weather fronts moving north
through Wednesday for coastal zones...lower Noatak valley...and lower
Yukon valley. A chance of rain or snow for the remainder of the
interior zones...mostly the western halves due to the strong
ridging in the east.
Central and eastern interior...strong ridge bringing dry and much
warmer conditions. Thermal trough developing over eastern
interior Thursday will provide potential for isolated thunderstorms
over higher terrain....east of Fort Yukon and Fairbanks.
&&
Fire weather...potential for isolated thunderstorms eastern
interior Thursday.
&&
Hydrology...Flood Warning continues for Fort Yukon and the watch
remains in place downstream to Tanana as breakup activity on the
Yukon progresses.
&&
Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Storm Warning for akz207-akz208.
Flood Watch for akz220-akz221.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225.
&&
$$
Jl may 13
