Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
230 PM akst Sat Mar 8 2014
aloft...trough along the Canada border to a low in the eastern
Gulf of Alaska will slowly move east through sun. Trough from
Banks Island to the Yukon Flats will dig farther southwest through
sun while forming a low 200 miles northwest of Fairbanks by 3am
sun...which drifts west northwest to Point Lay 3pm Monday. 850 mb
temperatures dropping to -20 to -25 c over the interior through
sun with this low. Low over North Pacific moving to Kodiak Island
Tuesday am spreading moderate to strong south flow north over the
state. Short wave with this low moving from the Susitna and Copper
River valleys 9pm Monday to the southern Brooks range 9am Tuesday. 850 mb
temperatures warning to -3 c over the central interior Tuesday PM.
Surface...973 mb low over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will move
to norhteast of Whitehorse Canada 3pm sun and weaken to 987 mb.
1040 mb high persisting over Siberia but slowly weakening through
Tuesday. Ridge eastward across the inland North Slope weakening
through Monday. Deepening low about 40 north latitude and south of the
western Aleutians moving to Kodiak Island Tuesday am. Associated
occlusion moving north to the crest of the Alaska Range 3pm Monday
then to Eagle to Fairbanks to McGrath 3am Tuesday and to 100 miles
north of Fort Yukon to Bettles to McGrath 3pm Tuesday.
Models...agree OK on features aloft and at surface. Better
agreement among U.S. And European models regarding onset of south
flow across Alaska Range...now around 3pm Monday. European model (ecmwf) and GFS are
similar in medium term through Friday am then European model (ecmwf) moves a stronger
short wave north Friday night and Sat.
North Slope...clouds and occasional flurries persisting into Monday
with winds light and generally becoming easterly sun or Sun night
as inland ridge weakens...though eastern coast will likely hang
onto southwest winds into Monday.
Western Alaska...local winds continuing...with cold wind chills
along the Chukchi Sea coast into Sunday. Winds turning north to
northwest Tuesday. Some cooling with upper low moving into interior
though not too much. This region will be on the cold side of the
incoming low to Kodiak Island so warm up apart from clouds will
only be a little. Snow moving north over interior zones Monday night
and Tuesday with occlusion.
Central and eastern interior...some snow tonight and sun over the
far southeast interior with the low moving from the Gulf of Alaska
into Canada...amounts should be light. Low temperatures falling
into the 30s below tonight and Sunday night over southern interior
valleys and into the 40s below over the northern interior valleys.
Dramatic warm up in store as southerly flow begins late Monday
into Tuesday...some snow breaking out with occlusion moving north
over area late Monday night and Tuesday...mainly north of Fairbanks and
west of Manley...but a period of snow could occur overnight Monday in
the middle Tanana Valley. High temperatures soaring into the 30s
above Tuesday or by Wednesday and remaining there through the rest of the
week. South winds becoming strong and gusty through Alaska Range
passes Monday PM and Tuesday.
Wind Chill Advisory for akz207.
Gale Warning for pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz220-pkz225.
Jl Mar 14