Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
555 am akst Thursday Feb 11 2016
A quiet weather pattern will continue over most areas
of northern Alaska through early next week.
upper low centered near Ambler will move on a wobbly course
to 50-100 miles northwest of Cape Lisburne by late Saturday
night...leaving northern Alaska in a weak mainly southerly
flow pattern and above normal 850 mb temperatures.
an elongated 1043 mb high extending from 80n/150w to 67n/110w
will split into two centers by Thursday afternoon...a 1043 mb
center near 80n/150w and a 1046 mb center 63n/110w. The
northwestern center will remain nearly stationary through
Saturday...weakening to around 1040 mb...while the southeastern
center continues to move southeast.
Current GFS/NAM runs indicate some loosening of a tight pressure
gradient from Kaktovik east this afternoon and tonight which
should result in decreasing winds in zone 204 from Kaktovik
east...but winds are expected to increase again Thursday as the
gradient re-tightens. A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted
for zone 204 from Kaktovik east...where winds gusting to 50-55 miles per hour
are reducing visibility to one half mile at times. Elsewhere along
the Arctic coast...east to northeast winds will continue... with
areas of fog. Isolated to scattered snow showers over most areas
of the Arctic slope today and tonight...and over most of the
central and western areas Friday.
A mainly easterly wind flow pattern will continue south of
the Brooks range. Scattered snow showers are expected
to develop over parts of the eastern interior this morning
in advance of a weakening occluded front moving northwestward
out of the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Scattered snow showers
are expected to move westward into the central interior
tonight...and into the western interior by Friday evening.
Southerly wind gusts in Alaska Range passes may approach or reach
minimum advisory levels later this morning through this evening.
Extended outlook...current models indicate a weak flow
pattern continuing over northern Alaska through Monday...
with upper level ridging possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to continue to be above normal
in most or all areas of northern Alaska.
Wind Advisory for akz226.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz204.
Gale Warning for pkz245.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz235-pkz240.
Rf Feb 16