Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
354 PM akdt Tuesday Jul 29 2014
the trough aloft from about inuvik to Fairbanks to McGrath will
continue southeast...clearing Mainland Alaska by 4 PM Wednesday...
as the ridge aloft over the eastern Bering Sea continues to
build in our way. This ridge is expected to get flattened on
Wednesday by a short wave coming in from eastern Russia. The
surface low associated with this short wave and the associated
low aloft are presently over Mainland Russia northwest of
Kamchatka...and are expected to move northeast into the high
Arctic. The associated trough aloft will move northeast and east
to lie from about Cape Lisburne to Nome and southward at 10 am
Wednesday...then southeast to lie from about Kaktovik to
Fairbanks to Bethel at 4 PM Thursday. The models have little or no
measurable precipitation coming in ahead of the trough.
Instead...it just sets US up for a juicy westerly flow aloft.
Satellite pictures suggest that decent moisture has already
moved into eastern Russia ahead of this system...moisture
associated with the remnants of a weather front that moved from
the western Bering Sea into Mainland Russia northeast of Kamchatka
Monday night. However...the models have this moisture moving into
the high Arctic along with the surface center. It may just brush
our Arctic coast from Barrow west Wednesday afternoon and night.
As mentioned above...the real rainfall comes in behind the
original trough aloft...as a series of weak disturbances aloft
move eastward the moist westerly flow aloft. One encouraging
feature of the developing regime...much of the trajectory is
over eastern Russia. It would likely be a lot wetter in
northern Alaska if the trajectory were over the Bering Sea.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
gusty north winds this evening through mountain passes in zones
206/218 and in zones 225 and 226. No red flags though...as fuels
have not dried out enough yet.
Djh Jul 14