Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
219 PM akst sun Jan 25 2015
models remain in good agreement in the short term and into the
long term. Preferred the GFS based on verification on the 18z
analysis. Forecast package based in large part on a blend of of
inherited forecast with the 12z GFS.
Aloft...a long wave trough with axis over Prudhoe Bay south to
just west of Fairbanks and southward over Prince William Sound
will persist through the end of the week. A upper level low diving
south out of the high Arctic will be located 200 nm north of
Prudhoe Bay Monday morning and over Demarcation Point Monday
evening. A strong shortwave rotating around the upper level low
will be the Focal Point for blizzard and near blizzard conditions
over the eastern North Slope through Tuesday. The upper level low
moves east into the Canadian high Arctic Tuesday as an upper level
ridge builds over the chukotsk peninsula.
On the surface...high pressure continues to build in over the West
Coast and western interior. Mostly clear skies and calm winds
combined with 850 mb temperatures in the 20s below to produce a
few 50 below readings over the northern portions of the central
and western interior. Expect stratus over portions of the central
interior to dissipate and temperatures in the central interior to
plummet tonight and continue to remain cold through middle week. The
gradient over the West Coast has relaxed some and as the winds
have decreased the wind chills values have improved. Winds remain
strong enough combined with very cold airmass through the eastern
Brooks range passes to warrant Wind Chill Advisory there.
Focus remains on the the North Slope where an upper level trough
forecast to move south through the eastern North Slope will
produce blizzard and near blizzard conditions through Tuesday.
Warning level wind chill values have been occurring and are
expected to occur through early Tuesday. The gradient tightened
briefly today over the eastern North Slope creating blizzard
conditions near Point Thompson. Visibilities have improved
temporarily...however as winds increase again late tonight and
continue to increase Monday expect blizzard and near blizzard
conditions for the eastern North Slope.
Wind Chill Advisory for akz202-akz213-akz218.
Winter Storm Warning for akz203-akz206.
Blizzard Warning for akz204.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz245.
Ccc Jan 15