Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
141 PM akdt Monday Oct 20 2014
models initialized well and continue to perform well with minimal
spread from run to run and between model families in the short
term and into the middle term. By the weekend considerable spread in
feature location and strength plague the model guidance.
Aloft...at 500 hpa a 508 dam low currently located over Bristol
Bay will drift slowly south and east into the central Gulf of
Alaska by Wednesday morning as a very Sharp Ridge builds into the
central Bering Sea. The low weakens to around 520 dam as it
continues to drift into the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday and
Friday. The Sharp Ridge over the Bering Sea is flattened out and
pushed into Bristol Bay by Thursday and Friday as a 504 dam low
continues to deepen over eastern Siberia and moves to the east as
a secondary low center reaches the Bering straits by Thursday
evening. The upper level low progresses slowly east along the
Brooks range and will bring a chance of snow over West Coast and
the western interior Friday and into the central interior
On the surface...a 1040 mb high remains parked over the high
Arctic as a 980 mb low over south central Alaska moves slowly to
the west. The pressure gradient between these two features is
creating very strong winds along the coast on the North Slope with
High Wind Warning hoisted for zones 202...203 and zone 204. Wind
gusts to 65 miles per hour are possible in these areas through this evening.
Winds should subside below warning levels late this evening.
Freezing drizzle...snow and blowing snow widespread in the coastal
zones on the North Slope and visibility less than 1 mile at times
in blowing snow noted in the plains in zones 205 and 206.
In the interior mostly cloudy skies along with flurries will
continue through tomorrow. Winds on the summits are gusty but
below advisory levels. A weak short wave passing through the
central interior continues to produce a few areas of enhanced
precipitation...more than flurries. No reports of freezing rain
have been noted at reporting stations...however reports of
accumulating freezing rain were received along the Dalton Highway
in western zone 220 where travel conditions are reported as
extremely slick. A Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain was
issued through this evening for this area.
Along the West Coast...brisk off shore winds will continue this
evening and though the day tomorrow with strong wind headlines
for St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Mostly cloudy skies
with scattered snow showers expected in these areas.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Winter Weather Advisory for akz220.
High Wind Warning for akz202-akz203-akz204.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-
Gale Warning for pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220.
Ccc Oct 14