Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
514 am akdt Tuesday Sep 2 2014
models in decent agreement through roughly 48 hours. Main upper
level low north of Point Lay will move to north of Demarcation
Point by Wednesday afternoon. The upper level low has spawned a few
surface lows and is currently vertically stacked. Secondary
surface lows are just north of MacKenzie Bay and another one near
Arctic Village. From the MacKenzie Bay low and back to the Arctic
Village low extends a significant cold front.
The lower level jet is right with the cold front and this bringing
in tons of moisture to the central portion of the state which has
already provided in some places up near 2 inches of rainfall. One
inch plus amounts are very common from the Alaska Range north
Meanwhile very significant snowfall in the Brooks range has
been occurring for the past 24 to 36 hours. Snowfall models are
doing a very poor job overall but may have a better handle on the
Brooks range than other locations is the best guess at this point
with not much data available.
Winds over the central portion of the state will continue to be
gusty through Tuesday however at this point the winds have failed
to be realized at most of the valley level locations. The higher
level locations are seeing increased winds but so far not to the
point as originally believed they would be at the valley.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Hydrology...excessive rainfall over the western and central
portion of northern Alaska will cause rivers to rise and some will
likely reach flood stage. The rivers have begun to Register the
upward trend as of Tuesday morning.
Wind Advisory for akz220-akz221-akz222.
High surf advisory for akz201-akz202.
Winter Storm Warning for akz206.
Flood Watch for akz222-akz224.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz218-akz225.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-
Cf Sep 14