Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
423 PM akdt Wednesday Apr 16 2014

aloft at 500 mb...high pressure remains over the Chukchi Sea
through Saturday. The upper level low that was northeast of Barrow
earlier today and has moved northeast with a weak trough moving
over the western Arctic coast this evening. Across the
interior...high pressure ridge still remains but several shortwave
features embedded will filter through the eastern interior. There
was a weak impulse moving northward sparking some rain and shower
activity across eastern interior overnight. Another shortwave will
move northward over the Alaska Range on Thursday allowing for
continued pockets of scattered rain and snow showers. Finally the
upper level low over the Bering Sea northwest of Dutch Harbor will
move near Bristol Bay by Saturday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) then start to
deviate with the European model (ecmwf) weakening into a low trough and then
redeveloping the low over St mathew Island Area by Sunday night
where as the GFS places the low over Seward Peninsula. Tending to
lean towards the European model (ecmwf) for the extended forecast.

At the surface...
a 994 mb low in the southern Bering Sea will meander slowly around
Dutch Harbor through Thursday morning then redevelop to 992 mb
low over Bristol Bay by Friday morning. High pressure will build
across the Chukchi Sea with a 1020mb high over wrangel island this
evening and slowly moving east. This high pressure will then weaken
as it moves east to 1013 mb by Friday morning with location over the
Arctic Ocean well north of Barrow and then continue to move east
to be located well north of Barter Island by Saturday morning. In
the interior there is a low pressure trough extending across
eastern interior. The remnant of the rain and snow showers with
freezing drizzle across central interior will continue to

North Slope...dense fog across much of the area this morning has
improved briefly for some locations. However...several locations
along the Arctic coast have developed dense fog with visibilities
of a quarter mile or less. As typical with the fog along the North
Slope it will continue to meander up and down with the
visibilities through the morning. Given several sites with dense
fog...have a dense fog headline through the morning. High pressure
will build in over the area through the remainder of the week with
fog and flurries expected.

West Coast and western interior...main features impacting the
western interior with snow and rain showers expected to continue
overnight and diminish through Thursday. There may be a potential
for light freezing drizzle overnight. This area is extending from
Galena to Ruby and northeast towards Bettles in the central
interior. There is also some isolated showers early in the evening
over the Bering Strait.

Central and eastern interior...latest viirs infrared satellite imagery
at 330 PM akdt shows the more convective development with the
rain and snow showers over the alaksan range and eastern
interior. Also seen is the remnant of the line of rain and snow
showers that extended from Galena towards Bettles. This will
continue overnight and also have some light freezing drizzle later
in the evening...particularly that develops across the ray and
White Mountains towards Bettles. Shower activity


Fire weather...
with surface high pressure ridge still over the area for fire
weather zones 223 and 225...expect continued above normal
temperatures. Although expect a couple of degrees cooler on
Thursday with the weak shortwave moving through the ridge. Also
expect min relative humidity values to range in the 30s to 40s. Expect light
winds to continue.


Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.


Mak Apr 14