Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
206 PM akst Friday Feb 12 2016
long wave ridge over western Canada will weaken through next week
as the long wave trough over the Bering Sea and North Pacific
slides east over Mainland Alaska through next Monday. Then will see a
ridge build back over western Canada and eastern Alaska by the
middle of next week. Generally this will keep temperatures above
normal through next week.
A low aloft over northwest Alaska will move to Point Hope by 3pm
Sat...and then just northwest of Point Hope sun. There is a broad area of
low to middle level clouds near this along with flurries. There is
also a surface low under this feature that will be addressed
850 mb temperatures range from -2c in the southeast interior to -18c in
northwest Alaska with little change through the weekend.
strong high pressure north of the Arctic coast of Alaska will
persist through sun.
A 1003 mb low near Kotzebue will move to Point Hope as a 997 mb
low by 3pm Sat...and to 100 nm northwest of Point Hope as a 1002
mb low by 3pm sun. An occluded front stretching from the low to
Wainwright with a cold front from Wainwright to Howard Pass to
Anvik and a warm front from Wainwright to Barter Island. Front
will remain quasi-stationary and weaken through sun. Another 2-3
inches of snow expected near the triple from from Barrow to
Wainwright with snow amounts decreasing significantly along the
fronts further away from the triple point. East winds 30-50kt are
now occuring along the Arctic coast with blizzard conditions from
Wainwright east. The heaviest snow is in the west but the
strongest winds in the east near zero visibility in all these
areas. The winds maintain strength through Sat then weaken very
slowly through sun. Thus blizzard conditions will continue through
Sat afternoon...and then improve very slowly through sun as snow
ends and winds decrease slowly.
A second and much weaker occluded front stretching from Talkeetna
to Northway will move to Denali to Chicken by 3am Sat...to McGrath
to Old Crow by 3pm Sat and then dissipate along an Anvik to Arctic
Village line by 3am sun. Expect just isolated snow showers with
this due to weak down slope conditions. The except is over zones
224 and 220 where stronger support aloft is causing snow now that
will continue through early Sat. Expect 1-2 inches of snow there.
A third weather front will move north to the Alaska Range by 3pm
sun...and then dissipate over the southern interior Sun night and
Monday. Expect just isolated snow showers with this.
models initialize well and show similar solutions through 3am
sun...then the GFS and ecmf move the front from Gulf of Alaska
north over the Alaska Range more quickly than the NAM on sun.
Favor the GFS/ecmf through Monday. Next week start to see large
difference between models but most solutions agree on keeping
south flow aloft and above normal temperatures.
Blizzard Warning for akz201-akz202-akz203-akz204.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz206.
Gale Warning for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz230.
Jb Feb 16