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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
641 am akdt Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Synopsis...
aloft...
a long wave trough developing over Mainland Alaska today will
persist through next week. This will keep conditions generally cool
and cloudy through the weekend and into next week.

A short wave trough in the central interior will move NE today.
Rain associated with this will move NE today.

A second short wave along the dateline will move over the western
interior today and to NE Alaska tonight. More rain associated with
this.

A third short wave north of the siberian coast will move to northwest
Alaska tonight and to Anaktuvuk Pass to McGrath by 4pm Thursday and to
Atigun Pass to Fairbanks by 4pm Friday. Will more significant rain
with this and snow in the Brooks range.

850 mb temperatures range from -2c along the western Arctic coast
to +12c in the southeast interior. Temperatures will cool significantly
along the western Arctic and West Coast tonight and Thursday...and in
the interior Thursday night and Friday.



Surface...
a weak thermal low in the southeast interior along with weak instability
will allow isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms there
today and Thursday.

A 1005 mb low 150 nm south of Barrow will move to near Demarcation
Point as a 1001 mb low by 4am Thursday and then continue east. A cold
front stretching south from this low to McGrath will move to
Arctic Village to minchumina by 4pm Thursday and to Eagle to Delta by
4am Thursday then stalling. Expect .25-.50 inch of rain with this
heaviest along the Brooks range.

A 997 mb low over the chukotsk peninsula will move to near
Kivalina as a 1002 mb low by 4pm Wednesday...to anaktuvuk as a 1008 mb
low by 4pm Thursday...and to Arctic Village as a 1010 mb low by 4pm
Friday. A cold front stretching S from this low will move to the
West Coast this afternoon...into the western interior tonight...to
the central interior Thursday PM...and over the eastern interior Thursday
night and Friday. Expect another .25-1.00 inch of rain with this low
and front. The heaviest amounts will be along the Brooks range and
in the Alaska Range. Strong cold advection with just west of the
low will cause precipitation to fall as snow in the Brooks range.
Expect 2-6 inches of snow in the Brooks range...with the heaviest
amounts above 3000 feet.

&&

Discussion...
models initialize well and show similar patterns through the
weekend. Since this is dynamic high speed flow expect differences
in timing but the general wet pattern will continue through Friday.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none

&&

Fire weather...
none.

&&

Hydrology...
expect .75-1.50 inches of rain over the Brooks range and northern
interior through Friday. This will cause all streams and rivers to
rise to high levels. Since much of the precipitation will be snow expect
run off to be over a long enough time period that no flooding will
occur.

Heavy rain possible in western Denali park Thursday and Thursday night could
lead to small stream issues there Thursday night and Friday.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210.
&&

$$

Jb Jul 14

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