Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
418 am akst sun Nov 23 2014
The main forecast highlights include a return to near normal
temperatures and the possibility for some light snow for parts of
the interior and West Coast.
Deterministic models during the short and middle term are in pretty
good agreement. Long range model solutions diverge slightly...with
differences in the strength and positioning of synoptic features.
A nudge of a model blend to the inherited forecast will be used.
The ever present stacked low over the Alaska Peninsula continues
to gradually weaken as it remains nearly stationary. 1021 mb
high pressure remains over the eastern Beaufort Sea...which will
gradually shift southeast towards Banks Island later this
afternoon. There is a weak surface low north of Cape Lisburne this
morning. Models have this low moving east along the Arctic coast
through Tuesday afternoon.
A shortwave moving north this morning over the Alaska
Range...associated with the aforementioned stacked low will stall
out over the Koyukuk valley today...then shift east Tuesday.
Enhancement to this shortwave will come as another shortwave from
the Chukchi Sea drops south and over the interior early Tuesday.
Another upper level low and surface reflection will move into the
western Bering Sea early Tuesday and then stall. An associated
occlusion will rotate north late Tuesday and move onshore over the
In the extended...long range models are advertising that an
upper level ridge will once again take hold over Mainland Alaska.
There are differences between the models in overall strength and
amplitude of this ridge.
North Slope...not much going on up on the North Slope. Winds have
trended down for the central and eastern Arctic coast with wind
speeds 25 to 40 miles per hour. Winds will continue a downward trend
today...but will keep strong wind headline going for zone 204.
Mostly clear conditions will last through Monday before cloudy
skies return when a weak trough drops down from the Chukchi Sea
and moves along the Arctic coast through Tuesday afternoon.
West Coast/western interior...the cool down from above normal
temperatures will continue...settling into near normal
temperatures by the beginning of the week. A change in pace may be
in the offing middle week when an occlusion associated with a low in
the Bering moves onshore over the West Coast. This could bring a
chance for a couple of inches of snow starting Tuesday afternoon
over the Yukon Delta and lower Yukon valley...then spreading north
to the Bering Strait coast and Chukchi Sea coast Wednesday
Central/eastern interior...seeing some light returns on the Pedro
Dome radar south of Fairbanks this morning...which are flurries
that will fizzle out this morning. For snow lovers...there is a
glimmer of hope for some light snow early Tuesday into early
Wednesday. The shortwave moving north this morning will stall out
over the Koyukuk valley this afternoon and strengthen through late
Monday before shifting east Tuesday...brining snow to parts of the
interior. This will be enhanced by another shortwave that drops
down from the Northwest Arctic coast Tuesday. Thinking that the
light snow will fall to the north of Fairbanks and over the Yukon
uplands and central interior...with a few inches of fresh snow
possible. Not thinking that any winter weather headlines will be
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Wind Advisory for akz219.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Gale Warning for pkz210-pkz245.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz240.
Lth Nov 14