Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Northern Alaska forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
354 PM akst Tuesday Nov 25 2014

Updated Freezing Rain Advisory

Discussion...

Upper air...models are in good agreement through Wednesday. Ridge
builds over interior Alaska during the next couple of days. By
Wednesday afternoon the ridge axis extends from south of Kodiak
Island to northeast of wrangel island. On Thursday afternoon the
ridge axis extends from the northern Gulf of Alaska to near
wrangel island. On Friday afternoon the axis extends from the
northern Gulf of Alaska to the southeast interior to the western
Arctic coast. Broad area of low pressure over the west half of the
Bering Sea with 508dm center in the western Bering Sea will
transition into a 513dm center in the central Bering Sea by
Thursday afternoon. By Friday afternoon a 521dm low will be
centered 250nm southwest of Gambell with a trough extending
southeast of Cold Bay.

Surface...a weather front over the southern Bering Sea will
gradually weaken as it moves northward to Saint Lawrence Island
and Norton Sound late tonight. A 990 mb low will move northward
into the southern Bering Sea Wednesday morning and weaken into a
trough over cape navarin and the western Gulf of Anadyr by late
Wednesday night. Another low over the western Aleutians Wednesday
afternoon will move into the central Bering Sea Thursday. A 1036
mb high centered 250 miles north of Barrow will build to a 1039
mb high centered 160 miles northeast of Prudhoe Bay by Wednesday
afternoon with a ridge extending southeastward into the northwest
territories of Canada. A weather front will move north over the
south Chukchi Sea Wednesday night. The front will extend from
wrangel island to Point Lay Thursday morning.

North Slope...light winds...flurries and patchy fog will be the
main weather features through the weekend.

West Coast...weather front moving north over the West Coast
tonight through Wednesday will bring snow amounts of generally
less than one inch. There is also a chance of freezing rain for
zones 213 and 214 around midnight tonight through Wednesday
morning. Winds will reach gale force over marine zone 210
Wednesday morning and likely continue into Thursday. Another
front will move across the area Thursday and Thursday night. This
second front will have less snow and cooler temperatures than the
first front.

Interior...snow will tapering off to flurries tonight over the
eastern interior. High pressure building during the next few days
will keep any chances of snow out of the interior Wednesday
through Friday. There is the chance of snow entering the southwest
interior on Saturday and moving east...but models are not yet in
complete agreement.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Freezing Rain Advisory for akz213-akz214.

Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz215-pkz220.

Gale Warning for pkz210.

Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz220-pkz225.
&&

$$

Da Nov 14

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations