Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
128 PM akdt Thursday Sep 3 2015
models initialized well and verified well against the 12z
analysis. Model spread both between model families and from run to
run remains reasonable through Sunday but significant spread in
model solutions develop by early next week.
Aloft at 500 hpa...a 562 Dam Ridge over the western interior will
continue to weaken as a 545 dam low slides to the south over the
Yukon Saturday. The long wave trough over the western Bering Sea
will deepen and move south and east through Monday where phasing
with a strong shortwave diving south out of the high Arctic
punches east over the North Slope Monday.
On the surface a 1029 mb high pressure system 300 nm north of
Demarcation Point combined with a 1004 mb low over Bristol Bay are
producing small craft level winds over the eastern North Slope.
The low over Bristol Bay will continue to move north into the
lower yk Delta tonight and weakens to 1006 Friday morning while
spreading light rain over southwest Alaska south of the Seward
Peninsula though Saturday. The front with the low pressure
continues to streach and weaken in place into Sunday. Expect
mostly sunny conditions over the central and eastern interior.
Gusty easterly winds will continue over the North Slope with low
ceilings and fog expected to continue.
A front approaches the northwest coast Monday as the first of a
two of lows passes 500 nm north of Barrow. A second and much
stronger low and attending front approaches from the northwest
Tuesday. Considerable model spread exists on exact strength and
track with the GFS dropping a 990 mb low to a point 300 nm north
of Barrow by 12z Tuesday and the European model (ecmwf) dropping a 1000 mb low to a
point 450 nm northwest of Barrow Tuesday morning. Will need to
monitor as either solution will bring west to northwest winds to
the North Slope from Barrow west and will introduce the potential
again for high surf and beach erosion Tuesday and Wednesday of
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
continue to monitor track and intensity of potential storm Tuesday
and Wednesday along the northwest coast west of Barrow. Sustained
northwest winds around 35 kts depending on storm track combined
with significant wind waves will have the potential to produce
high surf and significant beach erosion west of Point Barrow
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Ccc Sep 15