Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
324 PM akdt sun Mar 9 2014
aloft...at 500 mb...a low pressure system has developed over
north central interior and will move northeast towards the Chukchi
Sea coast near Point Lay on Monday. A ridge pushes north as the
low moves out with the ridge axis lying east to west over the
Alaska Range by Monday afternoon...and over the eastern Brooks
range by Tuesday morning. Several embedded shortwaves will move
northward with the first short wave over the Gulf of Alaska coast
by Monday evening and over the northern interior by Tuesday
morning. The low that was Over Point lay gets pushed southward
along the Bering Strait. Colder air gets pushed southward with the
elongated low along the West Coast as seen in the 850 mb
temperatures. Not very much changes from the previous discussion
as the 850 mb 20 below celsius isotherm move from an area from
Point Hope to McGrath and then east along the Alaska Range today
to a line from Nome to Eagle by tomorrow morning.
At the surface...similar as the previous discussion the 980mb low
near Cook Inlet will continue to dissipate through the evening. A
964mb low near 47n 169w will move to 300nm south of Sand Point by
Monday morning...then to Kodiak Island by Tuesday morning. The
general pattern will bring weak Chinook flow to the Alaska Range
by Monday night.
North Slope and Arctic coast...stratus and flurries will continue
to move over the Arctic coast extending from Barrow to east of
Wainwright. This will persist through this evening. The winds will
generally be light.
West Coast and western interior...strong winds near the Bering
Strait have diminished slightly and allowed for the Wind Chill
Advisory to be cancelled earlier this morning. However expect wind
chill conditions to reappear along the Bering Strait and extending
towards St Lawrence Island tonight. Candidness will weaken
slightly during middle morning over St Lawrence Island as
temperatures warm. However the colder air sliding down the West
Coast along with the increasing winds on Monday night into Tuesday
will continue with another round of wind chill advisories. There
were pockets in along the Seward Peninsula...but anticipate the
winds to be weaker inland.
Central and eastern interior...brief period of 50 below wind
chill values along Eagle Summit earlier this morning...but it was
for a short period of time and temperatures were slowly climbing
through the late morning. There is some concern again
tonight...as conditions will be on the lower end of the threshold
near Eagle Summit. Mostly clear skies across much of the interior
through Monday...with exception of increasing clouds along the
alaskan range. As upper level flow becomes southeast...expect
winds to increase in the passes within the alaskan range but
generally 35 to 45 miles per hour. The first short wave will bring some
clouds as well as snow showers...but areas downslope of the
alaskan range should be slightly shadowed with the Chinook flow.
As the front moves over Fairbanks some light snow will be possible
but expect that most snow will be west and north of Fairbanks.
Snow amounts will be mainly less than one inch. Total snow amounts
from Monday night through Tuesday night will be 1.5 to 2.5 inches
west and north of Fairbanks.
Wind Chill Advisory for akz207-akz213.
Gale Warning for pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz220.
Mak Mar 14