Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
1240 PM akdt Sat Apr 19 2014

on the surface a 1025 mb high pressure ridge extends east from
Siberia to wrangel island and weakens to around 1020 mb as it
extends east to Banks Island. A 974 mb low currently near 53n and
145w will continue to weak as it move to the North East. A 990 mb
low currently in Bristol Bay continues to weaken into an
inverted trough and extends northward to along the West Coast to
near Point Hope. An weak short wave moving north along the West
Coast of Alaska along the back side of a developing upper level
ridge over eastern Alaska will be the Focal Point for isolated and
scattered rain and snow showers over the Bering Sea and
westernmost Alaska.

North Slope... status and flurries continue across the eastern and
central North Slope. Only a few holes in the stratus noted along
the western North Slope as stratus shield creeps back toward the
west. Expect stratus low ceilings...fog and flurries to continue
through the weekend and into Monday as the ridge over the Arctic
Ocean is expected to remain in place.

West Coast and western interior...scattered and isolated rain and
continue to diminish as high pressure builds into the area from
the eastern and central interior.

Eastern and central interior...only isolated showers are expected
this evening as the atmosphere becomes capped with building upper
level high pressure builds into the area from the east. Above
normal temperatures are expected to continue into the middle of
next week. Min temperatures are only briefly going below freezing
at night at many locations across the southern interior the last
several nights and this trend is expected to continue. Significant
melting of snow pack is ongoing and will continue across the
southern interior and will develop across the northern interior.


Fire weather...
continued drying for the central and eastern interior through the
rest of the weekend and into the middle of next week. Relative humidity values
dropped in the 30s yesterday with a few 20s in the driest areas and
are expected to drop into the 20s and upper teens Sunday and
Monday...particularly for the Tanana flats and surrounding lower
elevation areas. Expect gap winds through and near the Alaska
Range to develop in the afternoons and evenings as the thermal
trough currently stretched across the southern interior deepens
with diurnal heating. Expect near red flag conditions in and near
passes in zones 223 and 225.


Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210.


Ccc Apr 14