Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
641 am akdt Thursday Oct 30 2014
things over the Bering Sea and the western North Pacific appear to
be developing pretty much as earlier advertised...though model
agreement concerning future developments over the next couple of
days is only fair.
The old low has moved back over Kamchatka and will not be a factor
in our weather...except that it has clearly moved some cold air
into a position where it can be tapped by the developing low that
was about 300 miles southwest of Adak at 4am this morning. Satellite
pics suggest that this low is deepening rapidly...a conclusion
supported by the fact that the sea level pressure at Adak is
falling rapidly (down 5 mb between 11z and 14z). The models would
have this thing crossing the Aleutian chain between Adak and
Shemya around 10am. The ecmf and GFS models both have the thing
deepening into the 960's this evening. They differ concerning the
position of the center though. The GFS would have the center
moving into Bristol Bay as early as Friday night...while the
slower ecmf would have it south of Saint Paul at 4am Saturday.
In either case...the associated weather front tubes out eastward
into the Gulf of Alaska without getting north of Saint Matthew
Island. The GFS solution does not result in a substantially
stronger Chinook for interior Alaska.
High pressure is gradually building in over the southern
Beaufort Sea behind the old Arctic low...now about 300 miles
north of Barrow and moving northeast.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz215-pkz220-pkz230-
Djh Oct 14