Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
341 am akst Monday Jan 26 2015
a long wave trough now is stretching from the Beaufort south over
Mainland Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea. This trough will
progress east through the week as a ridge builds over the Bering
Sea Wednesday and over northern Alaska late in the week. This means that
clear and very cold conditions will continue through Wednesday with
gradual moderation in temperatures in the second half of the week.
A 490 dm low at 500 mb that is located 250 nm north of deadhorse
is vertically stacked with a very cold core. This feature will
move to 100 nm north of Barter Island by 3pm Monday...and to 200 nm
east of Demarcation Point by 3am Tuesday..then continue moving east.
Expect scattered to broken clouds and flurries near this feature.
A short wave trough stretching south from the low aloft to Barter
Island to Tok will move east of the alcan border this morning.
Clouds and flurries associated with the trough will clear west of
A second short wave trough stretching from the low west will move
to 100 nm north of Barter Island to Umiat by 3pm Monday...and to
inuvik to Bettles by 3am Tuesday. There will be broken low level
clouds and flurries associate with this trough. Will also see west
winds 20-30 knots with the trough with strongest gusts in zone 204
as the trough moves past. Will see lots of blowing snow and low
visibility in zone 204 with the trough. May see strong north gusts
over the Brooks range Monday night and Tuesday as the trough moves past.
Will see clouds and flurries over the eastern North Slope north
of the trough tonight and Tuesday but decreasing Tuesday night as the trough
850 mb temperatures range from -20c to -30c with the coldest
over the eastern interior. Little change today other than a
decrease of 2-4c over the eastern North Slope. Will see increase
of 2-4c entire area Tuesday but expect little change at surface
a 1010 mb low 250 nm north of deadhorse will move to 100 nm north
of Barter Island by 3pm Monday as a 1014 mb low...and to 200 nm east
of Demarcation Point by 3am Tuesday as a 1018 mb low..then continue
moving east. A 1028 mb high centered over the interior and West
Coast of Alaska will build over the Arctic coast tonight and Tuesday.
The high will move north over the North Slope Wednesday. East winds
20-30 knots over the eastern Arctic coast will increase with gusts to
45kt and blizzard conditions in blowing snow through tonight as
the low moves past. Wind will decrease Tuesday and clouds will start
to decrease as the high pressure moves over the area.
Interior Valley temperature are in the 30s to 50s below now under
the high pressure and will remain that cold into Wednesday. Will see
high temperatures rise briefly by about 10f during the afternoon.
Will southeast ice fog near any settlements.
A weather front over the Alaska Peninsula will move over the
southeast Bering Sea today and then weaken in place through Tuesday.
This will increase NE winds over the West Coast through tonight.
models show similar solutions through middle week then start to
diverge with large difference by the end of the week.
All models showing clouds and light snow over the Arctic slope
today through Tuesday associated with the low dropping south over the
Beaufort Sea from the high Arctic. Polar orbiting satellite
imagery indicates that clouds currently associated with this
feature are very thin and wispy. Since the air mass in colder
than -30c associated with this features expect northing more than
broken clouds and flurries associated with this.
Wind Chill Advisory for akz202-akz218.
Winter Storm Warning for akz203-akz206.
Blizzard Warning for akz204.
Gale Warning for pkz245.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz240.
Jb Jan 15