Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
737 am akst Thursday Nov 26 2015
aloft... the long wave ridge over the NE Pacific and alcan border
will persist today and then start to progress slowly east over the
weekend. The long wave trough over the Bering Sea and northwest Pacific
will persist through Thursday and then drift east over western Alaska
by the weekend. This means that moist SW flow aloft will become
more southerly Friday and then weaken over the weekend. This will
allow warm temperatures and significant precipitation to continue
over the eastern interior today. Will see drying tonight and Friday
as flow turns more southeasterly with warm temperatures pushing
over most areas south of the Brooks range.
There are above freezing layers over the interior southeast of
central to McGrath that will persist today and allow areas of
freezing rain with significant ice accumulation possible some
areas. Above freezing layers will spread northwest to Old Crow to Norton
Sound by Friday with a chance of freezing rain in areas that get
a 1000 mb located 40 nm west of Point Hope will weaken in place
through tonight. A weather front stretching from the low to
north of Barter Island will weaken through tonight. Snow along
the front from Barrow west will diminish today as the front
weakens. SW winds 25 knots just southeast of the low Over Point hope
and Kivalina will decrease this afternoon as the low weakens.
High surf along the coast of zone 207 will decrease this afternoon
as winds decrease.
A stationary front stretching from central to Denali park to
will remain quasi-stationary through this afternoon then
dissipate tonight. Heavy snow is occuring along the front with
areas of freezing rain south of the front. Fairbanks has had
freezing rain for the past 3 hours. Heaviest snow and freezing
rain will be in the Alaska Range from Isabell pass west where
there could be another 6 inches of snow and one quarter inch of
ice accumulation today. Will see and additional 2 inches of snow
and one tenth of an inch of ice north of the range.
models show similar solutions through Sat.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
high surf advisory for akz207.
Winter Storm Warning for akz221-akz223-akz225-akz226.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz220-akz222-akz227.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.