Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
230 am akst Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Models...not much change from yesterday as good agreement
continues and has improved in the 24 to 60 hour range. Will use
the same forecast methodology today by leaning on an even blend
for the first 72 hours as the models are showing much better
agreement on the evolution of the precipitation and the timing as
it moves into the interior.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...strong ridging remains over most of the state
as it extends up th West Coast of North America over the southern
Yukon territory then west over Kotzebue Sound and Chukchi Sea with
540 dam heights over the southeast interior. The ridge remains in
place as a 525 dam low over the eastern Brooks range will slowly
move west to the upper Kobuk Thursday morning...and over Kotzebue
Sound Friday before turning north and drifting into the Chukchi
Sea. A chunk of the ridge broke off and a 540 dam high developed
over Kotzebue Sound Tuesday night and will move north with a
second center developing over the chukotsk peninsula Wednesday
night. Ridging will persist over the high Arctic...while
troughing remains over the North Pacific. At 850 hpa...weak warm
air advection through the weekend will keep temperatures at or
just above seasonal norms.
Surface...not much change here since yesterday...a 1046 mb high
will persist over the northeast Arctic as the center slowly moves
northwest through Thursday...then back to the southeast through
Saturday. A series of lows in the North Pacific will rotate north
through Friday with all of them dissipating as the move over the
Alaska Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Alaska. Cyclonic
flow will persist over the Mainland. As the lows move north the
gradient across the state pinches a bit and some slightly stronger
winds can be expected in the mountains and over summits in the
Arctic coast and Brooks range...weak surface reflection of the
upper level low over the eastern Brooks range is producing some
clouds...and is also contributing a bit to the winds which are
producing some local blowing snow that is combining with fog to
reduce visibility. GOES imagery still shows a nice band of
stratus along the northern periphery of the ridge that is moving
west. The sport modis and npp viirs 24 hours microphysics combined
image from 09/2023z...08/2001z shows a well defined strip of
stratus that extends east southeast well into central Canada.
Winds increase a bit today as the ridge pinches south a bit so
expect and increase in the blowing snow contribution to reduced
visibility. Temperatures not changing significantly through the
West Coast and western interior...a little increased cloudiness
over the lower Yukon Delta today...but no precipitation.
Otherwise no significant change in weather until Friday when a
band of light snow showers or flurries will move northwest across
the area. Offshore flow will continue over the coastal areas with
winds 5 to 15 miles per hour with generally light winds inland. Temperatures
will continue to be at or above normal for February.
Central and eastern interior...increasing clouds today from the
southeast as a decaying weather front with a band of showers or
flurries moves northwest across the area tonight through Thursday
middle day. Snow accumulation will generally be less than one inch.
No significant winds expected over the area...but local winds
gusting to 35 miles per hour will occur around Delta Junction and in the
Alaska Range...with gusts to 25 miles per hour over summits in the interior.
Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly above normal.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-
Sdb Feb 16