Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
1249 PM akdt sun Sep 14 2014

Synopsis...
aloft...
the long wave pattern consisting of a trough over the Bering Sea
and western Alaska with a ridge over northwest Canada will progress
slowly east with the trough over Mainland Alaska late in the week.
This is causing moderate southerly Chinook flow and record warmth
over the eastern interior now that will weaken through Wednesday.
A series of short wave troughs moving north across the state are
bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms with them
conditions will become more cloudy and cool in the second half of
the week with temperatures near normal by the end of the week.

A short wave trough in the western North Slope will move northwest
tonight. Scattered rain showers are occuring with this.

A second short wave trough from Galena to Bettles to Eagle will
move to Deering to Arctic Village by 4am Monday and to Point Hope to
Barter Island by 4pm Monday. Scattered showers are associated with
this and isolated thunderstorms this evening. Where showers fall
can expect .10-.25 in of rain with this. Clearing is occuring south
of the trough.

A third trough will move north over the southern interior Monday
PM...to Koyuk to Fort Yukon by 4am Tuesday...to Nome to Arctic Village
by 4pm Tuesday and then weakening. This will cause Chinook flow over
the Alaska Range to weaken Monday and allow isolated showers with
this feature in the southern interior...with scattered showers in
the northern interior and West Coast.

Surface...
a ridge of high pressure north of the Arctic coast will receded
east through Tuesday. This is causing strong east winds along the
Arctic coast that will decrease through Tuesday.

A strong low in Bristol Bay that hold the remains of a tropical
storm will split tonight forming a 998 mb low over the Yukon Delta
Monday that will drift southwest and weaken through Tuesday. An occluded
front with this low over Bristol Bay will move to the Yukon Delta
Sleetmute by 4am Monday...and to Gambell to McGrath by 4pm Monday and
then dissipate. Scattered showers are expected with this.

A second low developing in the western Gulf of Alaska Tuesday and Wednesday
will cause strong north winds to develop along the West Coast Tuesday
night that will persist through the week.

&&

Discussion...
models show similar solutions through Tuesday. Precipitation fields
differ slightly with the NAM moving precipitation north faster
through 4pm Monday. Favor the faster NAM solution through Monday and
then will follow the GFS.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...
strong north winds along the West Coast Tuesday night through the end
of the week could cause high surf North Shore of St Lawrence
Island Wed-Fri.

&&

Hydrology...
can expect .10-.25 in of rain across northern interior tonight and
another .24-.50 inch Tuesday. Do not anticipate problems with these
rainfall amounts.

Fire weather...gusty winds 50 miles per hour through Alaska Range passes
through Monday am but humidities will remain above 30 percent.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory for akz223.

Small Craft Advisory for pkz230-pkz235.

Gale Warning for pkz510-pkz240-pkz245.
&&

$$

Sep 14

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations