Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
351 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015
a stationary frontal boundary will remain in place along the
Carolina coast tonight...as surface low pressure meanders along
the southeast coast tonight through Monday. Strong high pressure
will build from the north Monday through Tuesday as the low pulls
offshore...bringing drier...more benign weather for the middle to
late week period.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
latest surface analysis reveals ~1040 mb hi pressure centered over southeast
Canada. To the southeast, ~1000+mb low pressure just off the SC
coast with stationary frontal boundary draped along the southeast coast.
Have extended Wind Advisory through late tonight with compressed
pressure gradient locked in place across the region. Areas of light
rain/drizzle are slowly becoming focused across the southern tier
of the area...mainly along and south of the US-58 corridor. Expect
this trend to continue through tonight, and have gone with high
end chance to likely pop over this area. Lower chances trend back
Dow across the Piedmont for patchy light rain/dz tonight and
overnight...drying out across the Northern Neck/Eastern Shore.
Chance of rain lingers into the overnight hours over the southeast
third of the area, as the aforementioned surface low and associated
upper- level low linger along Carolina CST. Thick canopy of clouds
will keep temperatures on the mild side with early morning low temperatures
ranging from the middle 50s to middle 60s.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
pressure gradient will remain compressed on Monday, as surface low
pressure takes shape off the SC coast. Meanwhile...high pressure
gradually noses in from the northeast. Wind gusts 20-25 miles per hour are
expected inland, 30-40 miles per hour along the coast. This is below Wind
Advisory criteria, so will hold off with any additional wind advisories
for this time period. Deep moisture transport and lift will once
again become most focused on the Carolinas, encroaching up into
far southeast tier of our southeast Virginia/NE NC coastal plain. Continued likely pop
across this area mainly during the morning. As for temps,
continued cool with forecast maxima generally in the middle to upper
60s inland...low 70s along the coast.
Upper level low along the Pacific coast will build east across the 4
corners region. As the southeast upper low ejects farther NE
towards Atlantic Canada Tuesday/Wed, low amplitude upper level
ridging will build east across the southeast, with surface high pressure
building nosing in from the Ohio/Tennessee valleys. This will translate to
drier, more pleasant weather for the midweek period...with temperatures
moderating back towards climatology values Tue/Wed. Highs generally in
around 70 along the coast to the lower 70s inland. Early morning
lows in the 50s to near 60 along the coast.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
surface high pressure centers itself over the northeast and middle Atlantic
region Wednesday night into Thursday. Shortwave prognosticated to drop over the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday...pushing a cold front
into/through the region Friday night into Sat. Models are a bit out of
sync with respect to timing of this feature. Therefore...will carry slight chance
probability of precipitation both Friday and Saturday. Seasonable highs in the 70s through the
period...with comfortable lows in the 50s and 60s.
Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
IFR and low end MVFR conditions and -ra/-dz continue through the 18z
taf period. Pressure gradient remains strong across the area with NE
winds gusting 35-40kt along the coast and 20-25kt farther inland.
Pattern remains similar through Monday with some slight improvements in
ceilings and winds by Monday evening.
Weak low pressure moves off the Outer Banks Tuesday with improving
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.
tight pressure gradient continues into Monday due to
strong high pressure over southeast Canada and developing low pressure off
the Georgia/SC coasts. Prolonged period of gale force winds over the
local waters...so will keep the gale headlines for all waters
(except rivers where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect) into Monday. Gales will
be quickest to end across the Middle Bay and lower James River by
6 am Monday...but should linger for the Lower Bay/Currituck
Sound/coastal waters until the early afternoon. The strongest winds
are expected during the day today...but not expecting gusts to
reach storm force (~50 kt) on the coastal waters. Seas will be
12-17 feet over northern coastal waters through tonight and 10-15 feet over
southern coastal waters...with 5-8 feet waves over the Bay. Beyond
Monday...marine conditions will slowly improve each day through midweek
but headlines will likely continue through at least Tuesday due to high
Flood Warning continues for the Meherrin at Lawrenceville. River
is in minor flood near 17 feet at 19z and is forecast to remain in
flood through this evening. Other forecast points within the
Chowan basin are forecast to remain below flood. The James and
Appomattox basins are cresting or have crested in action stage
below flood stage.
coastal flood warnings have been extended through Monday
afternoon/early evening for all tidal influenced areas (except the
Maryland beaches and inland worcester) due to ongoing moderate
to major flooding. Strong NE winds continuing along coastal
areas will keep water levels significantly elevated and nearshore
waves hovering around 8-9ft...this includes during low tide
cycles. The current warning for the Maryland beaches and
inland Worcester is set to expire at 400 PM...at which time it
will likely be converted to a coastal Flood Advisory. Tidal
anomalies continue to average 2.5-3.5ft above normal through
tonight and are expected to slowly lower over the next few days...
especially as winds gradually diminish. High tides are anticipated
to fluctuate between minor and moderate flood levels Monday night into
In addition...a high surf advisory remains in effect through Monday
(mon evening across vb/NE NC zones) for nearshore waves 8-9 feet.
Maryland...coastal Flood Warning until 11 am EDT Monday for mdz021>023.
High surf advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for mdz025.
Wind Advisory until 1 am EDT Monday for mdz024-025.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for mdz024-
NC...coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for ncz102.
Wind Advisory until 4 am EDT Monday for ncz017-102.
High surf advisory until 7 am EDT Tuesday for ncz102.
Virginia...coastal Flood Warning until 11 am EDT Monday for vaz075>078-
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for vaz093-095>100.
Wind Advisory until 4 am EDT Monday for vaz095-097-098.
High surf advisory until 7 am EDT Tuesday for vaz098.
High surf advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for vaz099-100.
Wind Advisory until 1 am EDT Monday for vaz099-100.
Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for vaz083>086-518-
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for vaz084>086-
Marine...Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT Monday for anz632-634-650-652-654.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Monday for anz633-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for anz635>637.
Gale Warning until 6 am EDT Monday for anz630-631-638.