Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
406 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
high pressure settles over the Middle Atlantic States tonight through
Saturday. A dry cold front moves across the region Saturday night.
High pressure builds back into and over the area for Sunday and
early next week.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
low pressure continues to spin off the New England coast this
afternoon. Meanwhile...surface high pressure is centered over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley. This high begins to build across the local area
tonight. Precipitation associated with the low has moved out of the local
area and expect dry weather into tonight. Still a lot of clouds across
the Eastern Shore at this time...while generally clear across the SW. Clouds
will continue to decrease from SW to NE overnight...becoming
mainly clear all areas by daybreak. Decent pressure gradient
between the high and low will maintain breezy/windy conditions
across the forecast area through about sunset before diminishing. Lows
tonight from near 40 west to near 50 at the coast.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
high pressure will continue to build over the local area
Friday/Saturday as the low to our NE skirts Atlantic Canada.
Sunshine will be plentiful both days with milder temperatures in the middle
60s to low 70s. Lows generally in the 40s. A weak/dry cold front
crossed the local area Saturday night. This front will do little
more than increase winds from the northwest on Sunday while sunshine
remains plentiful. Highs in the upper 60s NE to low/middle 70s SW.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
a weak trough will be well to the southeast Sunday night as high
pressure settles over the region on Monday and then slides off the
coast Monday night through Wednesday. Overall conditions will be
dry/rain-free. As the ridge axis shifts eastward...temperatures will begin
to warm into the low-middle 70s during the day. Overnight temperatures will
likely experience a much slower warming trend with low temperatures in the
40s Sun night (low-middle 50s beaches)...in the middle 40s to lower 50s
Monday night (mid 50s beaches)...and in the 50s Tuesday night. The next
cold front to impact the middle Atlantic region is expected to cross
the area late Wednesday night. Expect continued warm temperatures with
breezy southwest winds and increasing cloud cover as Wednesday
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
VFR conds will persist through the 18z taf period with some lingering
3-4k feet ceilings persisting along the coast in vicinity of ksby. Deepening low
pressure system now well east of the New York/New Jersey coastline will continue up the New
England coast eventually locating east of Maine by Friday
morning. Pressure gradient will remain compressed today...resulting in
gusty north-northwest winds to around 20-25 knots over the Eastern Shore into
Thursday afternoon. High pressure will continue to build over the region
from the west Thursday night and Friday.
VFR conds look to persist Friday afternoon through the weekend.
solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are occurring across all waters and will
persist through Friday morning/early afternoon...with the exception of
far northern coastal waters which will be in Small Craft Advisory due to seas around 5ft
through early Friday evening. Current conditions consist of gusty
northwest winds (15-25kt/gusts 25-30kt)...seas averaging 4-8ft...and
waves of 3-5ft in the mouth of ches Bay. Cold air advection
processes will gradually loosen its grip on the winds tonight into
Friday as a coastal low pressure system continues to track NE off
the New England coast. The pressure gradient will be even slower
to relax through Friday night as weak high pressure builds in from
the west and the New England low begins to depart the northeast
coast. Expect breezy northwest winds to continue through Friday/Friday night.
There may be a brief northwest surge Friday evening in northern ches Bay and the
northern coastal waters but will hold off on any additional Small Craft Advisory flags
until the current set has expired. Seas/waves subside through the
day on Friday and will average 2-4ft/2-3ft respectively.
A weak trough pushes across the waters on Saturday. North-northwest winds will
back around to the SW on Saturday as the trough approaches and
then veer to the northwest after it passes the area. A push of cooler air
late Sat night into Sunday may provide enough of a cold air surge
over ches Bay and the coastal waters yet again. Small Craft Advisory may be
possible during this time with seas building to 3-4ft...maybe up
to 5 feet near buoy 44009. High pressure settles over the waters on
Monday and then slides eastward off the coast Monday night through
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Friday for anz633-635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for anz630>632-634-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for anz650.