Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
432 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will settle into the region today and bring dry and
cooler than normal conditions through Thursday. Generally fair
conditions will continue into the early part of the weekend...along
with a gradual warming trend.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM Wednesday/...
as of 400 PM...except for some high clouds over the southeast part
of the forecast area and patchy fog in some other areas...skies have
generally cleared across the region. As high pressure continues to
build in the from the Great Lakes area...skies will become clear in
all areas by later this morning. Despite plenty of sunshine today...
the airmass is cool and highs will be a few degrees below normal...
generally in the middle 60s to middle 70s.
&&
Short term /tonight through Friday/...
the high will be over the region tonight with clear skies and light
winds. Thie will produce an unseasonably cool night with lows in the
upper 30s and 40s.
The center of the high will move off the New England coast on
Thursday and the southerly flow around it will produce a warming
trend through Friday...along with the continuation of fair weather.
Highs Thursday will be 70 to 80. Lows Thursday night in the upper
40s and 50s...and highs Friday in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
&&
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
high pressure will be positioned just off the middle Atlantic coast
through the weekend...which will allow for a warm flow of air around
the periphery of the high. Also...an upper level ridge will be
building over the Ohio Valley and middle Atlantic region...with our
area on the northern periphery of the ridge.
It still appears as though we will remain dry through the first half
of the weekend...before the pattern turn somewhat more unsettled.
Kept mention of just slight chance probability of precipitation on Saturday to account for
modest instability developing due to slightly higher dewpoints. Not
much of a synoptic trigger for convection...but a stray shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
The better chance for at least scattered mainly diurnal convection
will be from Sunday through Tuesday...as possible multiple
disturbances in the westerly flow aloft migrate across the area.
With above normal temperatures and humid conditions
developing...instability will be present each day. Any weak impulse
will have the potential to trigger convection. Storms could
potentially be strong depending on the degree of instability/shear.
Temperatures look to average above normal through the period...with
precipitation widely varying based on which areas have convection.
&&
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
challenging forecast with regards to possible fog formation at
kgfl/kpsf. IFR fog already occurred at kgfl earlier this
evening...however a northerly breeze developed and has persisted
resulting in VFR conditions. It appears as through the gradient will
be pronounced enough for the northerly breeze to continue.
However..if winds can go calm even for a short time occasional fog
and IFR/MVFR conditions would likely occur. So will mention tempo
for possible fog between 07z-10z. Winds remain calm at kpsf and
clouds have scoured out...so there is a potential for fog formation
there before the northerly breeze commences. Will also mention a
tempo to account for this between 06z-10z. Kalb/kpou expected to
remain VFR.
All sites should be VFR by around 10z...with a dry air mass moving
in. VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight hours. Some
radiation fog will be possible tonight at kgfl/kpsf once decoupling
occurs.
Winds will be northerly around 5 knots or less...increasing to 5 to 10
knots shortly after sunrise. Winds will become light and variable after
dark tonight.
Outlook...
Wednesday night-Fri...mainly VFR. No sig weather. Possible late night fog at
kgfl/kpsf.
Sat...mainly VFR. Slight chance -tsra/-shra.
Sun...mainly VFR. Chance thunderstorms and rain.
&&
Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns at this time due to the recent wet
weather.
High pressure will settle into the region today and bring dry and
cooler than normal conditions through Thursday. Generally fair
conditions will continue into the early part of the weekend...along
with a gradual warming trend.
&&
Hydrology...
flows remain above normal for middle June across the Hydro service
area.
Dry weather is expected today through Friday...allowing rivers to
continue to gradually lower from the very wet conditions of the past
few weeks.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.
&&
Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...gjm
near term...gjm
short term...gjm
long term...jpv
aviation...jpv
fire weather...kl/gjm
hydrology...kl/gjm
