Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
946 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
a storm system and associated frontal boundary will move across
the region tonight. A wintry mix of precipitation will fall over
the region early tonight...then taper off later tonight. After the
frontal boundary moves through the region early on Wednesday...a
wave of low pressure is expected to move along it...bringing more
unsettled weather to the southern portion of the region Wednesday
night and Thursday.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 915 PM EST...back edge of the steady precipitation has raced eastward
across New York state this evening...and is now rapidly moving through
the Albany forecast area. Have made major adjustments to the
pop/weather grids in order to take into account this rapid eastward
movement. Have generally forecast likely probability of precipitation through midnight
over the New York part of the forecast area...and categorical probability of precipitation over
western New England. After midnight...the precipitation will be spotty and
only chance probability of precipitation have been forecast in all areas. If the precipitation
coverage remains low or non-exixtant after midnight...then the
Winter Weather Advisory may need to be cancelled before the 600 am
Snow has changed to a wintry mix in just about all areas as of 915
PM...so the precipitation type for the rest of the night will generally be
freezing rain...sleet and snow...with a transition to rain towards
sunrise over southern areas.
With most areas already getting mixed precipitation...and precipitation becoming
spotty after midnight...additional snow and sleet accumulations
will be minor...so total accumulations for this system have been
lowered to one to three inches in all areas...with only isolated
areas possibly getting more than 3 inches.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
the precipitation is expected to taper off early Wednesday with
the cold front sliding south and east of the forecast area. Expect clouds
mixed with some sun highs Wednesday are expected to be in the 3os
to lower 40s...depending on how much mixing we get with the
winds...how much sun...and if the cold frozen snow covered ground
could limit the surface warming.
A wave of low pressure is expected to form along the cold front
south and east of our region and bring snow back across our
southern 6 counties consisting of Greene...Columbia...Berkshire...
Ulster...Dutchess and Litchfield late Wednesday into Thursday.
There is still considerable uncertainty as to how far north any
areas of snow can get...so including chances to likely probability of precipitation across
the aforementioned areas. There could be 2 to 4 inches of snow in
southern areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This low
pressure system should exit Thursday night with dry and cold
weather expected Thursday night through Friday. Lows Wednesday
night are expected to be in the zero to 20 above range with highs
on Thursday in the middle teens to middle 20s. Lows Thursday night are
expected to be in the 10 below zero to 5 above zero range with
highs on Friday in the upper teens to upper 20s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
mainly quiet weather with moderating temperatures is expected
through much of the long term period.
Temperatures will once again be cold for Friday night into
Saturday morning with lows in the single digits. With a storm
system approaching from the Great Lakes region...there will be a
west-SW flow at low and middle levels. This should allow temperatures to
moderate for Saturday...with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s
over the region. Some snow showers and flurries will be possible
between late Friday night and Saturday night...but mainly for
western and northern parts of the region. Even areas that see snow
showers...little accumulation is expected...as moisture will be
lacking with this northern stream clipper system.
Behind this system...temperatures won't be too much cooler aloft...so temperatures
won't change much. Lows Sat night look to be in the middle teens to low
20s...and highs on Sunday will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s. Lows on
Sun night look to be in the teens.
The flow aloft will start to become a bit more zonal for early next
week...which should allow temperatures to continue to moderate back towards
normal levels. Another moisture starved clipper system could
approach for Monday...otherwise...it looks fairly dry...with no
major systems impacting the region through the start of the week.
Highs for Monday/Tuesday look to be in the 30s...with teens and 20s at
Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/...
widespread vlifr to IFR conditions expected at the
kalb/kpou/kgfl/kpsf taf sites through 04z to 06z as the frontal
boundary associated with a storm system near James moves across
the region tonight. Mainly snow will fall to start the taf
period...with a transition to sleet and freezing rain between 02z
and 05z...with occasional wintry precipitation through 07z to 08z. Precipitation
will end at kgfl/kpsf/kalb by 07z/08z...but continue at kpou
until around 10z...but expect temperatures to warm up enough after 08z
for just rain at kpou. Between 06z and 08z conditions will improve
to MVFR cigs/vsbys...primarily due to fog and low clouds.
The frontal boundary will move across the region around sunrise
Wednesday...and mainly VFR conditions are expected Wednesday with
ceilings between 4000 and 8000 feet.
Surface winds will be southerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts...with
gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible...especially at kalb. Behind the
front on Wednesday...winds will westerly at 8 to 10 kts...with
gusts of 14 to 18 kts.
Tuesday nt-Wed: high operational impact. Snow/pl/fzra to -ra.
Wednesday nt-Thu: moderate to high operational impact. Chance -sn kalb
north...with likely snow at kpou.
Friday-Sun: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through the next 5
days. However...another storm system will impact the region
through tonight...with the possibility of snow...mixed
precipitation and/or rain.
A brief warmup may occur on Wednesday...but the short timing and
magnitude of the warmth will likely not be enough to cause any Hydro
concerns. Another cold air mass will build in late Wednesday into
Thursday...with temperatures falling back below freezing.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for ctz001-
New York...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for nyz032-
Massachusetts...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for maz001-
Vermont...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for