Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
400 PM EST Friday Mar 7 2014
Arctic high pressure over the northeast will control our weather
into tonight before sliding offshore. Saturday a cold front will
push south through our region. High pressure will crest over the
region briefly Sunday.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 400 PM EST...Albany finally has cracked the freezing
mark...middle 30s...for the first time in 11 days. Many other areas are
above freezing as well...generally in the middle to upper 30s.
A somewhat potent low pressure was was situated off Cape Hatteras.
However...with a progressive westerly flow...high pressure to its
north... and no phasing with any northern jetstream...this storm
will slide well to south out to sea. High and even middle level clouds
had been strewn into our region...earlier as far north as the
capital region. This was the result of some low level moisture stuck
underneath an inversion. However...due to some mixing and
subsidence aloft...the clouds have scoured out. Only a few high
Once the sun GOES down...it looks as if most places will decouple as
we loose any gradient. With a mainly clear sky and the light to calm
winds...we look for temperatures to fall lower than expected before.
It will be a cold night...not quite as frigid as previous
nights...but we went below guidance. Look for lows in the single
digits north of Albany...10-15 Albany south as well as some higher
elevations even north...where a southerly breeze might persist.
Short term /Saturday through Monday night/...
high pressure will drift further away and a cold front will pressing
southward from the Great Lakes region. This cold front will quickly
slide southward as the day wears on...likely clearing our southern
zones by dark.
The front is moisture starved...with the only real chances for any
rain or snow activity...mainly confide to the Adirondacks and
perhaps Mohawk Valley. Any precipitation will light with little or
no snow accumulations.
Valley locations should see high temperatures 40-45 while the higher
terrain in the middle to upper 30s higher terrain. A gusty westerly
breeze will probably make it feel a bit colder than these
values...despite some sunshine.
A breeze and some clouds could keep temperatures from falling a
whole lot Saturday night...generally back to the teens
north...around 20 south...fairly close to normal. Kept slight
chances of mainly snow showers across the higher terrain due to lake
enhanced moisture and upslope.
It will be colder Sunday as h850 dip to about -12c. Despite a good
deal of sunshine temperatures will be noticeably colder than
Saturday with highs in the upper 30s in the middle Hudson Valley/lower
Litchfield...lower 30s Albany to about Glens Falls...25 to 30 higher
A clipper type storm might bring a little snow to the region Sunday
night...mainly northern areas where a couple of inches of snow could
accumulate. Valley areas look to have an inch or less...a lot less
in the middle Hudson Valley/lower Litchfield where there will be less
isentropic lift and we went with only slight chances.
Overnight lows Sunday night will be similar to Saturday night teens
to around 20 degrees. Most of the fall will likely happen during the
evening before we cloud up.
Monday...the system slowly leaves to our east. We kept a chance of
residual precipitation...mainly Monday morning. Slightly milder air
looks to move back in...which even without much sunshine...should
send temperatures back up to 40 to 45 in the valleys...middle to upper
30s higher terrain.
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
the extended forecast period consists on two distinct flow regimes.
The first part of the extended forecast features mainly dry and
seasonable to slight above normal temperatures. It looks as though we will
have several weak systems in a northwest flow regime through Tuesday
night. Expect lows Monday night in the middle 20s to lower 30s with
highs on Tuesday in the in the middle 30s to upper 40s.
The forecast becomes more interesting into the middle week period with
the potential for a significant snowfall. There are distinct
differences between the models in terms of track...quantitative precipitation forecast and timing.
The GFS is the fastest with the system and has considerably less quantitative precipitation forecast
than the European model (ecmwf) with the ggem sort of in the middle. The gefs is also
of little help in narrowing things down this far out as it has a 30
to 50 percent chance of 0.50 quantitative precipitation forecast. The gefs plume diagram between Mar
12th and Mar 14th varies from just over a tenth of an inch to
amounts slightly over 1.5 inches with a mean just over 0.50 inch. At
this point in time will go with chance probability of precipitation Tuesday night with
likely probability of precipitation south and chance probability of precipitation north on Wednesday and Wednesday
night and then chance probability of precipitation on Thursday. One of the more interesting
features is the energy swinging around the base of the 500 mb trough
Thursday morning with the a closed low at 500 mb and a 984 mb low
centered just off the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia Thursday morning. Have forecast lows
Tuesday night in the teens and 20s with highs on Wednesday in the
20s to lower 30s. Lows Wednesday night are expected to be in the
lower single digits and teens with highs on Thursday in the upper
teens to upper 20s. At this time will continue to mention in the severe weather potential statement
that the potential exists for a significant snowfall during the middle
Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the taf period as high
pressure slides east of the region.
This afternoon...lingering MVFR low-level stratus has eroded at all
the taf sites as afternoon mixing has commenced...giving way to
scattered cirrus streaming north ahead of a storm system that will
track well south of the region. Southerly winds will be light around
Tonight into Saturday...skies will become clear by 00z as high
pressure maintains a grip across the region. Scattered high clouds
will overspread the taf sites by daybreak Saturday ahead of a weak
storm system approaching from the Great Lakes region with slight
chances for precipitation expected after the end of the taf period.
Winds will trend towards calm tonight and become southwesterly
during the day Saturday between 5-10 knots.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
Monday through Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance
of rain showers...rasn.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
no widespread Hydro problems are anticipated over the next five
Temperatures will moderate over the next several days with them
reaching above freezing in many locations through each afternoon.
However...overnight lows look to plummet below freezing...and dew
points remaining rather low...very limited snow and ice melt is
anticipated...which will have little to no effect on river and
In addition...little or no precipitation is expected over the next
five days. Any precipitation that does occur will mainly be in the
form of snow showers and will be very light...until Wednesday when a
more significant precipitation event is possible.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.