Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
445 am EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will hold nearly stationary near our region through
Friday. The air mass will slowly moderate. A weak upper level
disturbance will move across the region Friday night into early
Saturday. This disturbance will bring a few showers of rain or a
wintry mix...mainly north of Albany. Another high pressure will
build in from Canada to close out the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 445 am EDT...a frigid night for the time of year. It is calm
and mainly clear with only a few high clouds overhead. Temperatures
were generally in the 20s...with some teens north. Locally at Albany
we were sitting at 28...with an outside chance yet to eclipse the
old low record of 21 set back in 1971.

Sunshine will be mixed with high clouds today. The air mass will
moderate a little as sunshine gets to work on the chill...and high
pressure center moves to our northeast. This will create more of a
southeasterly flow...so no big warmup just a gradual moderation.

Look for high temperatures today to be about 10 degrees warmer than
Wednesday. That will translate to a high ranging from the upper 40s
northwest of Albany to middle 50s southeast of Albany...locally in the
lower 50s within the capital region. These values will still fall a
little short of normal highs for middle April.

A light wind will become southeasterly 5 to 15 miles per hour.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
dry weather dominate through Friday...followed by a weak upper level
disturbance into early Saturday.

Tonight...with high pressure nearby...the wind will diminish once
more...and with a mainly clear sky...temperatures will fall back to
the 20s region wide...closer to 20 across the Adirondacks...closer
to 30 Albany southward.

As we head into Friday...a southerly flow and some more sunshine
will boost high temperatures a little more. Look for highs in the
lower 50s across most of the higher terrain...middle to upper 50s in
valley location.

Then Friday night...the aforementioned upper level disturbance will
approach from the Great Lakes region. This system looks moisture
starved...more so than before. It looks as if it will bring
scattered showers to mainly the Adirondacks...but even these look
fairly light. It will be cold enough for a mix of rain...sleet and
wet snow with minor snow/sleet accumulations across the higher
elevations with perhaps an inch or two of snow across the
Adirondacks perhaps the highest areas of the Catskills/southern
greens and Berkshires. Valley areas will stay mainly rain with very
light amounts. The chances of showers decrease from Albany and
especially south in the Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut.

Clouds and a residual southerly breeze should keep temperatures up a
little Friday ... they will still fall to around freezing across
the higher terrain...middle 30s most valley locations.

The system will exit the region later Saturday taking any leftover
showers with it. It will turn breezy with wind turning to the west
or northwest and gusting up to 25-30 miles per hour...especially across the
higher terrain/Mohawk Valley and greater capital district.

The air will slightly cool in the middle levels...but since we will
have better mixing on Saturday (compared to friday) surface
temperatures will generally be similar to those of Friday...maybe a
couple points higher in the middle Hudson Valley/lower Litchfield
County where they should reach around 60. Across the
Adirondacks...they will be slightly cooler in the upper 40s. Most
other areas will be in the 50s...upper 50s locally in the capital
region.

Everyone chills down again Saturday as another large high pressure
descends southward from the Hudson Bay region to bring a clearing
sky. With a light north or northwest wind...temperatures will fall
to around freezing in valley locations from Albany southward...20s across the
higher terrain and north of Albany.
It will turn chilly



&&

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
the long term period will start out dry on Sunday followed by mainly
slight chance probability of precipitation on Sunday night and Monday as a weak trough of
low pressure moves across the forecast area. There will be a better
chance of wet weather on Tuesday into Wednesday as a slow moving low
pressure system drifts from the Ohio Valley early Tuesday across our
region Tuesday night and off the New England coast late Wednesday.

Here are some specifics regarding the long term period. On Sunday
expect a dry day as a ridge continues to build south from Canada
and then slides east to the New England coast late in day. Expect
highs on Sunday to be in the middle 50s to around 60. Late Sunday night
into Monday a warm front lifts through our region. Very little
moisture is associated with this system so have mainly slight chance
to low chance probability of precipitation in the forecast for both periods. Expect lows
Sunday night to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs on
Monday in the 60s to around 70.

Monday night and Tuesday several surface waves of low pressure are
expected to track northeastward along a cold front draped along the
St Lawrence Valley. This frontal boundary and associated low
pressure system will move off the New England coast by Wednesday
morning. Have placed the highest probability of precipitation across the forecast area on Tuesday with
slight chance to low chance probability of precipitation during the other periods. High
pressure will build east from the upper Great Lakes providing US
with dry weather on Wednesday. Expect lows Monday night to be in the
upper 30s to around 50 with highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s to
around 70. Lows Tuesday night will be in the middle 30s to middle 40s with
highs on Wednesday in the 50s to middle 60s in most areas.

&&

Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour taf period ending
06z Friday...as high pressure crests over the region during the
remainder the overnight period and moves into New England on
Thursday. Skies will remain clear except for some occasional high
level cirrus clouds. The cirrus will become thicker Thursday evening.

Winds will be light and variable tonight...becoming east-southeast
around 10 knots by late Thursday morning...and then and variable again
this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday night and friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday night to monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
..low relative humidity values down to around 20 percent this afternoon...
..High Haines index of 5 this afternoon...

Most of the snow from Tuesday night is gone. However...old snow
still covered portions of the Adirondacks.

Mainly dry weather expected through the weekend with a good deal of
sunshine each day...except Saturday which will feature a bit more in
the way of clouds.

The air mass will moderate today and especially on Friday. The wind
will be light turning to the southeast by afternoon...5 to 15 miles per hour.
Relative humidity values look very low in most places.

Tonight the wind will become calm but we will not necessarily have
full recovery as relative humidity values top out around 75 percent.

Friday...the wind will turn south to southeasterly 10 to 15 miles per hour. Relative humidity
values look low...but not quite as low as this afternoon.

Friday night into early Saturday there could be some showers of rain
or snow around...mainly north of Albany. Amounts look
light...generally well under a quarter of an inch.

By Saturday afternoon...the wind will turn northwesterly behind the
disturbance as it become breezy...especially in the Mohawk
Valley/higher terrain and capital region where wind gusts could
exceed 25 miles per hour at times. Sunshine will increase.

Dry weather...mostly sunny and slightly milder weather is on tap for
Sunday.



&&

Hydrology...
flood warnings remain in effect at many river points in these areas
with mainly minor or moderate flooding occurring. However there is
major flooding occurring along the Schroon river at riverbank.
Larger main Stem rivers have crested.

Dry weather will be in store through Friday...and rivers continue
to recede into the weekend. The next chance of precipitation looks
to be Friday night into early Saturday. Some precipitation could
fall as wet snow across the higher terrain. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts look light
at this time which will be updated with future forecasts. At this
point...we anticipated no additional Hydro problems with this
precipitation.

Dry weather will resume late Saturday into at least Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.



&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...hwjiv
near term...hwjiv
short term...hwjiv
long term...11
aviation...11/jpv
fire weather...hwjiv
hydrology...hwjiv