Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
731 PM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
a slow moving storm and its associated occluded front will bring
periods of rain tonight through Wednesday....but there will still
be some freezing rain across southern Vermont this evening. Rain
will taper to showers of rain or snow Wednesday night. Dry air
will take hold Friday and will hold into the weekend with slightly
above normal temperatures.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
temperatures fell after sunset across southern Vermont and were
generally at or below freezing across most of Windham County and
the eastern part of Bennington County as of 700 PM. At the same
time...an expanding area of precipitation began to form from Albany north
and east...so issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for Bennington and
Windham counties through midnight...by which time temperatures should
rise to above freezing again.
For the rest of the region raised probability of precipitation to likely and categorical
levels in many areas for this evening due to the expanding area of
precipitation mentioned above. Previous forecast had categorical probability of precipitation
returning to all areas after midnight...so for most areas likely
or categorical probability of precipitation are now forecast for the entire night.
Except for southern Vermont...temperatures were above freezing
just about everywhere...mainly from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
a large upper level over the middle west brought the first shot of
precipitation with a weak warm front/short wave that dampened out
to our south.
A stronger piece of energy will work into the region overnight...
reintroducing isentropic lift as the warm front well to our south
attempts another run into our region but is blocked by high pressure
still to northeast. A developing wave of low pressure will form along
the triple point (where the warm front meets the occluded front)
to our southwest by late overnight.
All these factors will allow rain to slowly fill back in overnight
over the entire region.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
by Wednesday...a stronger piece of energy will work into the region
.And the aformentioned low pressure will ride up along or near the
I-95 corridor. H850 temperatures look to remain well above 0c...
as high as about +7c...assuring all rain at least during the day
This wave of low pressure will then pass on by to our northeast
by Wednesday night.
So Wednesday is a rainy day with some of rainfall moderate at times
during the afternoon.
As the storm moves by to our east...and the upper
level portion of the system moves overhead...temperatures will cool
quickly down to about -3c by Thursday morning.
This cooling will mean a switchover from rain to snow showers...mainly
across the higher terrain Wednesday night and even a few snow
showers possible in the valleys. Very little if any accumulation of
snow is expected in the valleys...but several inches are possible
across especially portions of the southwestern Adirondacks and
Thursday will be a blustery day...still with plenty of clouds
and some scattered rain and snow showers to start...persisting
across the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains due to mainly
upslope and some lake enhanced moisture...throughout the day.
High temperatures will be lower to middle 40s valleys...but only only in
the 30s across the higher terrain...lower 30s across the Adirondacks.
The wind will be light and variable through
early Wednesday...becoming south to southeasterly as the occluded
front approaches at 5-15 miles per hour...then backing to the north by
Wednesday evening...and eventually northwest 10-20 miles per hour with higher
gusts come Thursday.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
the long term period will feature mainly dry weather with high
pressure in control for most of the period.
At the start of the long term period...high confidence forecast with
the long range guidance in excellent agreement handling the
evolution of the synoptic pattern. The synoptic pattern will feature
split flow aloft across the central Continental U.S....with upper-level ridging
downstream across the northeast and a cutoff low dipping
southeastward into the middle-Atlantic region.
At the surface...a sprawling area of high pressure will build across
the region at the surface resulting in an extended period of dry
weather and partly cloudy skies.
There may be a few widely scattered rain/snow showers across the
southern Adirondacks during the day Friday...but not much in the way
of precipitation is expected. The next chance for widespread
precipitation to the region may come in the middle of next week as
the aforementioned upper-level cutoff low and possible coastal low
development drift back northeastward towards the region.
Temperatures throughout the long term period will start out near
normal before trending around 5 degrees above normal for early next
week. Highs will generally range from middle 30s to upper 40s with lows
ranging from the middle 20s to low 30s.
Aviation /01z Wednesday through Sunday/...
MVFR/IFR flying conditions will prevail at the taf sites through
the taf period as showers and steady rain impact the region.
Tonight...flying conditions will start out primarily MVFR at the
taf sites...except for IFR visibilities at kgfl and IFR ceilings
at kpsf associated with rain showers that have redeveloped across
these areas. These rain showers will continue to redevelop and
expand over the next few hours before there is a relative break in
precipitation/patchy drizzle generally between 03-06z. Some
freezing rain will be possible at kgfl between 00z-03z.
The next shot of steady light to occasionally moderate rain will
then move into the region after 06z from south to north...with
primarily IFR conditions/low-end MVFR at the taf sites between
Wednesday...flying conditions should improve slightly to high-end
MVFR after 15z and through the remainder of the taf period as
slightly better mixing raises ceiling heights. Rain will still be
around the taf sites however...with visibilities possibly dipping
to low-end MVFR during the afternoon hours.
Winds will be light and variable through the taf period generally
5 knots or less with a more persistent southeasterly component by
the end of the taf period.
Wednesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers...shsn.
Thursday: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday night -sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
hydrologic problems are unlikely over the next few days.
A slow moving storm system will brings periods of initially
light rain tonight...becoming steadier and
heavier by Wednesday.
The lion share of the rain will come Wednesday afternoon
with rainfall amounts perhaps approaching a quarter inch
an hour at times...but mostly around a tenth of an inch
The rain will taper to showers or rain or snow Wednesday
night with some minor accumulations expected over the
There will likely be some within bank rises on rivers and
streams but at this time rises even reaching any action
stages appear unlikely.
It will turn dry later Thursday into the weekend which will
allow rivers and streams to very slowly recede.
Dry weather will return for the late week period into the
weekend...allowing for rivers to recede.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
November 2015 GOES down in the record books as one of the warmest for
Albany and Poughkeepsie...and one the warmest and driest for Glens Falls.
At albany: ties for 4th warmest (45.5 degrees)
at poughkeepsie: 3rd warmest 46.3 degrees)
at glens falls: 2nd warmest (42.8 degrees) and 2nd driest (1.05 inches)
Autumn 2015 will also go down in the records book as one of the warmest
on records for Albany and Glens Falls...and the warmest for Poughkeepsie.
At albany: 4th warmest (54.6 degrees)
at glens falls: 3rd warmest (51.8 degrees)
at poughkeepsie: warmest (55.7 degrees) breaking the old record set back
in 2005 by 0.2 degrees
Vermont...Freezing Rain Advisory until midnight EST tonight for