Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
958 am EDT Sat may 25 2013
Synopsis...
chilly air will continue over the area through Sunday...with a
moderation back towards seasonal readings anticipated by Monday
afternoon. A few showers will linger into early this
evening...especially east of the Interstate 81 corridor...but
drier weather is foreseen starting Sunday.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
10 am...current forecast in good shape. Made minor adjustments to lower
temperatures once again as the models seem to have troubling hadling the
very cool air...with guidance being too warm for conds. Otherwise...cld/pcpn
trends in good shape. Prvs disc below.
430 am update... deformation precipitation band persists early this morning
across our eastern zones...with a deepening upper-level low parked near NYC
at this time. One more sig short WV was seen on water vapor imagery
dropping southeastward across the upper lakes region as of this writing...and this
feature should wrap into the upper low later today. Once that
happens...the upper vortex is finally expected to begin a slow eastward
push off the new eng coast. Until that time...look for numerous
-shra this am...to gradually become more scattered in nature as we head
through the afternoon hours...east of the I-81 corridor. Back to the
west...little or no shower activity is anticipated...with breaks of
sunshine developing as the day progresses.
Due to more clouds/persistent precipitation...the chilliest readings today will
be across eastern portions of the forecast area...with the higher terrain certainly not
getting out of the 40s once again. Farther west...maximum temperatures should be
able to reach well into the 50s...and probably near 60...especially
across normally warmer urbanized valleys.
Winds still look gusty...with steep low-level lr's and a tight pressure
gradient at play.
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
445 am update... winds should slowly subside this evening as the low
levels of the atmosphere stabilize...especially west of the I-81 corridor.
Also...with the upper low slowly moving away...gradual clearing
should take place from west to east during the overnight period. This may open
the door for frost conds across the twin tiers. Of course...the pace
that skies clear out later tonight...and that winds diminish...will be
key components. However...given the resident chilly air mass...and time
of year (memorial day weekend is planting time for many
locals)...we felt it prudent to hoist frost advsys for late
tonight/early sun.
Sun through Monday continues to look dry...with skies becoming mainly
clear...as a surface ridge builds in from the west...and heights aloft rise
in the wake of the departing western Atlantic upper low.
Potentially very cold temperatures late Sun night into early Monday will again
be the main forecast highlight this period. If anything...Sun night still
looks like it will feature the coldest readings of the
weekend...with the best radiating conds by this time. Thus...again
considering the time of year...we've issued a freeze watch for the
majority of the forecast area...save the lake plain counties. Some upper 20s are
not out of the question in the usually colder more protected valleys.
However...by Monday afternoon...substantial warming will be well
underway...with highs back up near 70 degrees by this time.
&&
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
fairly well advertised warm up expected this coming week as broad
upper ridging builds across the northeastern US. Before this
occurs however...forecast models continue to show a frontal boundary
remaining stalled southwest of the forecast area with developing
showers/possible thunder Tuesday through Thursday as a series of
weak shortwave disturbances ride along the developing East Coast
ridge axis building from our south. As a result...have maintained chance
thunder mention across the County Warning Area through the period before
advertising drying conditions by late week. Initial look at
developing synoptic pattern suggests conditions may become
favorable for a northwest flow severe convection setup with our
region residing on the northern periphery of developing middle-level
temperature anomaly to our southwest. Too early from this Vantage
Point to get too excited but trends will have to be monitored as
the timing nears. With forecast 850-hpa temperatures expected to warm well
into the upper teens...forecast highs by Thursday and Friday will likely warm
well into the 80s once the front finally passes.
&&
Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are present at all taf sites as dry air has moved
into the area this morning. Expect VFR conditions to prevail
through the forecast period. The middle level cloud deck will start
to dissipate from the west during the afternoon/evening today as
more dry air will move into the region resulting in partly cloudy
to clear tonight. Light rain showers may move into krme and ksyr
late afternoon but confidence is not high enough at the moment to
put in taf.
Outlook...
Sun-Wed...VFR.
&&
Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Sunday for paz038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
Freeze watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
paz038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
New York...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Sunday for nyz022>025-
044>046-055>057-062.
Freeze watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
nyz009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
Synopsis...dgm/mlj
near term...dgm/mlj
short term...mlj
long term...cmg
aviation...
